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Old 04-01-2016, 10:37   #841
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

sorry fighting the flu here, and juggling a lot of different projects. How bout this?




Please be advised that a 26 ft sailing vessel Dagny, dragged anchor on 12/22/2015 from West End Grand Bahama and is believed to be drifting up the southern east coast ( per Chris Parker weather router drift analysis ). If you can alert your customers about sv Dagny, it would be greatly appreciated. She has no lights so is a hazard to Navigation.

Info
26ft sailboat, Morris Francis mid 1970s
Flush deck
Light color tan deck, white hull with dark blue/black stripes
Double ender
boom Gallows
Sails stowed on deck
Windvane, stern hung rudder
All ports and hatches closed and locked
Bubble viewing hatch
4 solar panels glued to deck
Flying quarantine yellow flag



(Pics of Dagny)




Estimated location per Chris Parker's drift analysis

"At 5pm on Wed30, I now estimate Dagny might lie near 30-50N/80-56W, based on drift Sent from my iPad
At 5pm on Thu31, I now estimate Dagny might lie near 30-59N/80-50W, based on drift from wind of 10mi, in direction 030T.
I'll reiterate: Of course, all of the above is only an educated guess, and the possible errors compound over time...cheers...Chris."

(Pics of last two drift coordinates 12/30 and 12/31)



Estimated drift route per Chris Parker

(Pic of Full drift analysis, thanks to CFer Leaseonlife )
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Old 04-01-2016, 10:47   #842
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Is there a more recent analysis? This one is almost a week old.
And maybe add a contact number?

Battling flu here as well -- feel better soon!
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Old 04-01-2016, 10:47   #843
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocean Girl View Post
sorry fighting the flu here, and juggling a lot of different projects. How bout this?
Thanks OG.

12/22/2015 is a good root.

You might want to put the Coast Guard siting in there:

"Dagny was spotted tonight December 23rd at 5:30pm, reported by the USCG, at 27-03.7N 79-16.1W. 24hrs after drifting off."

There may have been another one re one of Gil's posts.

But all up to you so as not to be confusing and wordy.

Thanks for your help. Hope you get better.

SaltyMonkey Hey that's me!
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Old 04-01-2016, 10:49   #844
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lizzy Belle View Post
Is there a more recent analysis? This one is almost a week old.
Over a week -- 11 days
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Old 04-01-2016, 10:57   #845
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Thanks for the help, I should of came to you all to make up the flyer in the first place!

No more drift analysis coming ( I've asked) from what I've been told, it is just not feasible without a more recent sighting.
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Old 04-01-2016, 11:01   #846
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Oceangirl-
You might want to make sure the chandleries along the possible coast get a couple of copies of the flyer to post around as well, and any Power Squadron or similar groups.


The chart postings would seem to put the boat 40nm ? offshore now, so the commercial fleets and other vessels would be the only ones that might see her. Last I heard the winds had shifted around so they'll be blowing the boat further offshore, vaguely N to E, for the next few days. At some point there's probably a question of Gulf Stream meanders and vortexes and whether the boat gets caught up in them, changing predictions quite a bit. The "circle of uncertainty" must be fairly wide by now.
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Old 04-01-2016, 11:32   #847
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SaltyMonkey View Post
You need to give the date it was first lost. These drift calculations are based on what now? The last sighting was nn DAYS ago and these calcuations cannot possibly be relied on for accuracy. They are simply sniffs in the wind.

Agree. Distributing the info and flyers along the East Coast is a great idea --if anyone is out at this time of year -- but if there's too much focus on the drift analysis and maps, then it might lead people in other locales to not give this the same attention. Suggest including a prominent CAVEAT that the boat could be any where at this point. Also, someone had pointed out earlier that the anchor could have acted as sea anchor and slowed the drift. The analysis is all you have, and super helpful in the early days, but now it could be limiting...
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Old 04-01-2016, 11:38   #848
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Another cleaned up version of the flyer. I will be out for a few hours.


Please be advised that the 26 ft sailing vessel Dagny has dragged anchor and suspected to be drifting north in the Gulf Stream. She is showing no lights and is a hazard to navigation.

Contact info
If sighted, please contact the Coast Guard, and if possible email the persons below:

SSCA recovery coordinator, Glen KPK@ssca.org
Owner - Gil gil@keskedee.com

Vessel Info
26ft sailboat, Morris Francis, 1977
Flush deck
Light tan deck, white hull with dark green stripes
Double ender
Boom Gallows
Sails stowed on deck
Windvane, stern hung rudder
All ports and hatches closed and locked
Bubble viewing hatch ( companionway slider)
Flying yellow quarantine flag

image1.JPG
image2.JPG



Estimated location per Chris Parker's drift analysis

"At 5pm on Wed30, I now estimate Dagny might lie near 30-50N/80-56W, based on drift Sent from my iPad
At 5pm on Thu31, I now estimate Dagny might lie near 30-59N/80-50W, based on drift from wind of 10mi, in direction 030T.
I'll reiterate: Of course, all of the above is only an educated guess, and the possible errors compound over time...cheers...Chris."

image4.PNG



Estimated drift route per Chris Parker

image5.JPG


"Dagny was spotted December 23rd at 5:30pm, reported by the USCG, at 27-03.7N 79-16.1W. 24hrs after drifting off."

*****************
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Old 04-01-2016, 11:46   #849
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hellosailor View Post
Oceangirl-
You might want to make sure the chandleries along the possible coast get a couple of copies of the flyer to post around as well, and any Power Squadron or similar groups.


The chart postings would seem to put the boat 40nm ? offshore now, so the commercial fleets and other vessels would be the only ones that might see her. Last I heard the winds had shifted around so they'll be blowing the boat further offshore, vaguely N to E, for the next few days. At some point there's probably a question of Gulf Stream meanders and vortexes and whether the boat gets caught up in them, changing predictions quite a bit. The "circle of uncertainty" must be fairly wide by now.
Chris puts her about 25ish miles offshore on 30/31 ( you provably made the same conversion error I did earlier in the thread when I estimated her 48 miles offshore?). So she was heading along or near the shallows, the curve eastward of the coast hopefully will help her anchor. Well, at least that is my take. waves were pushing her in, current was pushing her out and wind is and was variable directions..?
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Old 04-01-2016, 12:02   #850
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Ocean Girl, considering the time lag and the now very large uncertainty of t he drift estimation, perhaps it would be better not to include them at all, but to say that "it is estimated to be somewher on the coast between X and Y (I'm not familiar enough to fill in those blanks). IMO, that verbiage would be more encouraging for ALL yotties and fishermen to be on the lookout. Remember that she could have snagged her anchor fairly early on and stopped drifting at all...

Please add my thanks for your efforts, you have done a sterling job.

Jim
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Old 04-01-2016, 12:03   #851
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

"conversion error"
No, I just eyeballed the scale on some of the graphics, versus the "center" position of the boat marker. Either way, vast open spaces.
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Old 04-01-2016, 12:08   #852
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Yeah...

I'd just say "its expected to drift somewhere on the Eastern seaboard" or something to that effect and leave out the math except for the last sighting by the Coast Guard. Also give original date (optional).

Nie work OG. Sorry for all this nitty picky.
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Old 04-01-2016, 12:28   #853
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Kudos to Ocean Girl! Wishing you a speedy recovery!

Steady Hand, could you help with the line drawing? (I'm about as artistic as the average plumber--it's not part of my skill set.)

Gil, if you glance at this thread from time to time, just know there are many of us out here, some quite far away, all hoping that you and Dagny are reunited, and wishing you the best.

Ann
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Old 04-01-2016, 12:36   #854
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Send the info to BoatUS.... and ask them to email their members? Shouldn't be too difficult...
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Old 04-01-2016, 12:47   #855
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Forgot to give KUDOS, too, to OceanGirl You've been a huge presence rallying the troops throughout this and directly doing something to help Gil. Get well soon.
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