Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

[robert sailor]

It's a known fact that seas off the BC and WA coast are some of the largest in the world. That said normal passages during the good months are safe enough if your a decent sailor.

[Pyxis156]

One of the recent weather models shows home (Puget Sound) getting pasted this weekend... the isobars are stacked up tightly right over it:

[uncle stinkybob]

Originally Posted by Pyxis156

One of the recent weather models shows home (Puget Sound) getting pasted this weekend... the isobars are stacked up tightly right over it:

yup, that looks about what I see right now when I look straight up! LOL. This is going to be a shitstorm.
In years past, I would take the family out to Kalaloch Lodge, rent a cabin for the weekend and watch the winter storms blow in. An amazing display of natures power, from a safe vantage point.

[liveaboard60]

I am familiar with the west coast seas.. Back in 1976 I spent over 6 hours on a 82' U.S. Coast Guard patrol boat, steaming south into 25 foot seas.. It was brutal, and being most of the trip was dark (we left shortly after 1:38am) made it even scarier somehow.. The bow would drop about 70' as we crested each wave, and the whole boat would shudder.. I just knew the next wave we crashed was going to rip open the bow..

Towed the fishing boat we rescued back to Half Moon Bay, and then steamed back north to SF Bay where we moored.. Coming back we had following seas so it wasn't so bad.. Still it was an experience I will likely never forget..


flk k

[1Sunseeker]

Even tied on all corners in my Cap Sante slip on Wed and Thurs. nights, I was rocked so bad I felt like I should go out and steer.

[gilligansail]

Uncle stinkyBob,
Who is SV Watercolor? Yes that is sad news. Hopefully they will show up?
What can you tell us about them?

[CarinaPDX]

To correct the OP, the nightly TV weather segments in Portland have been blaring the storm warnings for days. There are 3 fronts moving through: one yesterday, the worst tomorrow (remnants of a typhoon that never broke up), then another after that. The ex-typhoon Saturday may have the lowest barometric pressures measured here (PDX) in decades, and could do a lot of damage - it depends on how far east it is as it travels north. The coast is definitely going to get hammered. Thursday was pretty typical bad weather but Saturday has the potential for an extreme event. NOAA has had the warnings up as well. Anyone not aware of, and prepared for, tomorrow is oblivious.

Gotta finish lashing down the new tarp...

Greg

[uncle stinkybob]

Originally Posted by gilligansail

Uncle stinkyBob,
Who is SV Watercolor? Yes that is sad news. Hopefully they will show up?
What can you tell us about them?

Canadian sailor travelling from Hawaii to Victoria reported missing - British Columbia - CBC News

C.C.G. still broadcasting on VHF for vessel's to keep eyes open for him, search abandoned.

[UNCIVILIZED]

There's a beautiful spot in Olympic National Park just "uphill" from Port Angeles WA (on the Straits) called Hurricane Ridge. It's closed a lot from now until Spring

Olympic National Park Prepares for Storms; Some Areas to Close at Noon Today https://www.nps.gov/olym/learn/news/...noon-today.htm

[uncle stinkybob]

Originally Posted by UNCIVILIZED

There's a beautiful spot in Olympic National Park just "uphill" from Port Angeles WA (on the Straits) called Hurricane Ridge. It's closed a lot from now until Spring

Olympic National Park Prepares for Storms; Some Areas to Close at Noon Today https://www.nps.gov/olym/learn/news/...noon-today.htm

Too true. I grew up in Port Angeles. They call it "HURRICANE Ridge for a good reason. Beautiful place up there, fantastic hiking.

[Pyxis156]

The latest (as of 1PM Friday) from local weather guru Cliff Mass of the University of Washington:

"I have looked at the latest forecast model output and they are all on pretty much the same page, which increases forecast confidence substantially. The bottom line is that we have a dangerous storm, comparable to the 2006 Chanukah Eve storm or the 1993 Inauguration Day Storm, one that is following nearly a perfect track to produce strong winds over the Puget Sound region. And the coast is guaranteed to be hit hard.

This is going to be a relatively small storm. If the track of storm is shifted only a small amount (50-100 miles) from the forecast track, the winds in Seattle or other locations could be changed substantially. Thus, there is some uncertainty in the forecast."

At 5AM Saturday, the low is off Southern Oregon:


By 2PM, it has revved up and is right off the Columbia Bars:


At 8PM Saturday, the low is moving over southern Vancouver Island. Game time. This is when the winds would be strongest:


Again, all the above from Cliff Mass' Weather Blog.

[Pyxis156]

And now his thoughts on wind speeds and distribution... Again, all the below from Cliff Mass' Weather Blog.

"Now let's look at the max winds (gusts) from UW's ultra-high resolution model domain (1.3km grid spacing) during the primo wind time.

As of 5PM Saturday, gusts over 70MPH along the southern WA coast south of the low center. Not big winds over Seattle yet:


By 7PM, the low is centered near Port Angeles with 50-60 MPH gusts over the Puget Sound region and much stronger winds in NW Washington and the coast:


By 9PM, strong winds still over NW Washington and calming down a bit elsewhere:

[MarkJ]

By the time the wind gets to Vancouver I will be safe and warm in a bar. Just went over Annacias Island in a warm bus.



Not a day to be on the water, but i would love to be on the coast to see the rollers comming in. That would be a sight.

[zeehag]

i have been saying for years that pnw storms are cyclonic and been beat down by allegedly intelligent folks who donot know or care to research .
i have been watching these zombie storms as they pound hell out of pnw, then travel down coast to san diego , as often is the situation, pounding the coast as they go.
funny how they donot weaken much if at all on this course.
zombie storms.
called that by mets., and leftover from west pacific, going over the aleutians to pnw.
to best prepare for these, watch the wpac storms so you know what is coming.
there have been a few super typhoons this year--expect some nasty pnw weather as a result.
be safe out there.
and for the record , these are NOT small-only the center of these zombies are small. they stretch out large, just as the typhoon they are err were.
this is winter of la nina. many storms. this will be an exciting weather year.


Hurricane-level winds possible in Oregon and Washington - That Oregon Life

[UNCIVILIZED]

I think that people don't get how serious they are, since they're not hurricanes, or named storms. Along with the part that many of them get hardly any press including on many forecasting sites. As with this one, & the other two, I’ve even been to some NOAA sites where, incredibly, there’s little to no mention of them. And given that it’s not uncommon to have a big storm every few days from now until spring, they’re not trendy news.

Also, the population density on the NW Coast is much lower than back east, or down in SoCal, so the news demand is smaller. And less people = less ratings = less income for the TV News stations. That & of course pics of tragedy sell, so if a storm tears apart structures that shoot well on camera…

People kind of get how serious they are if you use the 100mph or kts figure. Along with telling them that many winter storms in the area get birthed in the area in between Russia & Alaska. Or that the storms span from the Aleutians to BC. But things like wave height & period usually only make sense to surfers. Who else flies 5,000nm just to see waves? As not even sailors often grasp how big a 35’ wave is, especially since wave height is measured from the back.
Just tell folks that the waves are the size of strip malls, & that they’re several houses high. That sometimes works