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Old 08-10-2018, 08:22   #1
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Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

Living on Lake Pontchartrain near New Orleans I like to play this “save my boat hurricane plan” sailing game: Suppose you owned a boat in a slip near Panama City, FL, which way would you move your boat, to the east or the west of the predicted path? It is already too late. If you left Panama City this morning and headed east you would have a dead run in 18 - 22 knot winds, not a pleasant sail. I suspect you would be lucky to make it to Mobile, AL, not necessarily a better place to be. Forget going west, as far as you could make it is Port St Joe, FL because once you round Cape San Blas you would be sailing directly into head winds. I guess the only place to go is as far up Deer Point Lake as possible. I have no idea how far you can go with a 5 ft draft. I believe that if I had a boat in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina there is nothing I could have done to save it.
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Old 08-10-2018, 08:35   #2
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Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

PC is my hailing port, when I kept the boat there I rode out at least one hurricane that turned out to not be much in a Bayou, right by the AF base, just beside of the bridge in the east part of the Bay.
Depending on other boats around me, I think I’d be fine in at least a Cat 2 there.
I don’t think this one will be bad, not for people that prepare and move to a better location, like in the ICW to the West.
Panama City Marina is NOT the place to be to ride one out.
Most don’t care, and I think would just as soon sell to the Insurence company. These people will do nothing at all to prepare, and there are many like that.
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Old 08-10-2018, 09:25   #3
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Re: Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

iff you gonna run, best do it westward in icw.
if f you gonna hunker, ready for a cat 3 landfall
be safe and good luck.
as bands are already affecting fla, is kinda late for a run for it unless that run is fairly inland.
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Old 08-10-2018, 16:13   #4
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Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

This is the DuPont bridge to the east of the bay, just before it is the hole I used to hide in, it’s a good place to hide.Click image for larger version

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Old 08-10-2018, 16:17   #5
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Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

Also to the West the ICW is a good place to hide, but get there early as a lot of the Commercial boats hide up there.
Of course that is true about the other hole too, if you go to either se, you need to go now or first light in the hope there is spaceClick image for larger version

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Old 09-10-2018, 09:29   #6
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Re: Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

Getting late to run. There is a big reality of water getting sucked out, happened last year. icw has not many places to anchor as is shallow out of the channel. Correctly said some owners do nothing and create a huge danger, let alone no respect for people that love there boat. Riding it out shell point beach, between st marks and panacea.😅🍸
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:37   #7
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Re: Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

West is your best bet as a strong trough will keep it from moving West. More likely error of landfall to the east.
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:39   #8
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Re: Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

too late now to run. hunker and be ready cat 3 on landfall... mandatory evac for many counties. louisiana cajun navy is getting ready for this with you.
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:48   #9
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Re: Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

Your best bet is to run to the closest place that you can haul out! Remove windage, fill tanks, then get yourself to somewhere safe.
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:53   #10
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Re: Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

I and my boat Tashina, on which I live, are at Massalina Marina in Panama City. All the boats that were here two days ago continue to be here and most of the owners have been securing lines and removing dinghies, bikes, and anything else that can take wing and fly away. Two days ago I thought about sailing west but then felt Michael could still wobble itself more to the west and I'd be out there in hurricane winds with a boat I only just learned how to sail this summer. Made more sense to stay here in what is said to be something of a hurricane hole. I wish our docks were floating ones but they are not. So, fellow cruisers, hold good thoughts for me. I love reading all the helpful ideas and recommendations on this forum and hope to be able to contribute at some future time. Christa
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:57   #11
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Re: Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

Good luck!
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:59   #12
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Re: Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

Quote:
Originally Posted by swordds View Post
Living on Lake Pontchartrain near New Orleans I like to play this “save my boat hurricane plan” sailing game: Suppose you owned a boat in a slip near Panama City, FL, which way would you move your boat, to the east or the west of the predicted path? It is already too late. If you left Panama City this morning and headed east you would have a dead run in 18 - 22 knot winds, not a pleasant sail. I suspect you would be lucky to make it to Mobile, AL, not necessarily a better place to be. Forget going west, as far as you could make it is Port St Joe, FL because once you round Cape San Blas you would be sailing directly into head winds. I guess the only place to go is as far up Deer Point Lake as possible. I have no idea how far you can go with a 5 ft draft. I believe that if I had a boat in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina there is nothing I could have done to save it.

In Katrina's case, it's path was accurately forecast many days in advance. Whether one believed, or wanted to believe, the forecast, the fact is there was lots of time to do something with your boat. Sorry.
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Old 09-10-2018, 11:02   #13
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Re: Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
too late now to run. hunker and be ready cat 3 on landfall... mandatory evac for many counties. louisiana cajun navy is getting ready for this with you.



The OP already stipulated that A) this is hypothetical, B) it's too late to run, and C) he is in Lake Ponchartrain.
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Old 09-10-2018, 11:10   #14
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Re: Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

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Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
too late now to run. hunker and be ready cat 3 on landfall... mandatory evac for many counties. louisiana cajun navy is getting ready for this with you.



The OP already stipulated that A) this is hypothetical, B) it's too late to run, and C) he is in Lake Ponchartrain.
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Old 09-10-2018, 11:18   #15
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Re: Hurricane Michael, Which Way to Run?

As this is a game, if you are going to run it's best to run west to increase the odds that you are on the safe side of the eye .

To the west of the eye the hurricane's forward motion subtracts from the wind speed.

It looks like Michael will be moving at about 20mph when it hits the shore so the wind on the west side could be as much as 40mph less than the wind on the east side.
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