Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

[monte]

From a few days ago

[Cheechako]

Is "...to 25 knots" of wind really unusual on his route? I would think Mark is likely expecting that anyway at times....?
If you are sailing offshore for 1500 miles + and not expecting that.... well... you are in for a surprise...

[colemj]

Originally Posted by mct

His HF might work or not, might have broken. Irrelevant.

I don't see how that is irrelevant. If he has a working HF, he has access to a professional weather forecaster/router providing specific weather forecasting/routing information for his precise route twice a day for free.

Or do you think your passageweather interpretations are better for him?

Mark

[RTB]

Originally Posted by mct

Latest fcast I have found for mid next week shows wind NNW to 25 knots. from Weds3rd at Cape Hatteras and all down the US E coast to Fl.

Ugrib shows about the same (up to 30 knots, though) for now, except from the NE, not NNW.....

Sorry, can't copy and paste the grib.

Ralph

[monte]

A close up on the grib posted earlier shows 30-35K NNE but it's also showing it weakening fairly soon after. I'd maintain course (for now) and enjoy the ride. It shows it very localised so there's enough time to steer clear if it develops further.

[jtsailjt]

I don't think Mark would be offended by any weather info offered, but I also don't think he'd go to sea without a means to get the info that he felt he needed so I'm betting he will know about the storm and be prepared to deal with it by the time it develops, if it develops. After circumnavigating on this boat and living aboard it for many years, he's in a pretty good position to know both his own, and his boats, capabilities. Even IF he sails right into this potential storm, I wouldn't worry about him even a little bit, he'll be fine.

[NoTies]

35 knots is a storm?

[estarzinger]

I just had a look at the forecast - I would suggest it is pretty much 'normal and expected' and nothing to write home (or write MarkJ) about.

There is a set of lows shown developing on the 3rd and 4th, but please realize (1) that is beyond the forecast reasonable accuracy time horizon. So, it's something I would keep an eye on, but not make any rerouting decisions about now (I would normally wait until the feature is inside the 5 day window before taking it too seriously, unless it is showing as a tropical storm in which case I would 'contingency route plan' immediately as it showed up on the forecast horizon). and (2) this is a +10'ish day passage and you are almost certain to get some 'weather' during it. MarkJ knows that and is surely experienced and prepared enough to deal with a garden variety low.

We certainly got 10 day gribs while at sea, using an iridium sat phone. It's easy and the gribs are quite compact files which don't take much bandwidth.

[monte]

Thanks Evans. Good synopsis.

[monte]

Today's grib update showing a weaker low of NY than yesterday's. Not much over 15kn NW Tuesday and Wednesday followed by light winds veering SW Thursday - Sunday. . Carry on ..

Mondays synoptic chart

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrsfc.gif

[zeehag]

this doesnt look so bad--he aint on west coast, so is ok....

[monte]

The low showing on Tuesdays forecast. Headed NE over the following 24hrs. Is Mark still en route for NY or altered course?
Pic below.

[monte]

Tuesday

[monte]

And another low Friday. As Evans suggested it would seem altering course based on 5 day forecasts and being 7 sailing days from the area of interest might be premature. What is the general tactic to cross the Gulf Stream on this passage? Keep well offshore and parallel to the stream till favourable conditions to cross exist (wind from the Southerly sector)?

[zeehag]

still looking good for markj's progress..... nothing to see here---wind is perfect for heading to new york... geaux, mark!!!!

and nothing predicted per nhc...