Weather, and the Future of Cruising

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by grunzster

......whatever you believe, there's no arguing that the weather/climate is changing, becoming less predictable, .....

I think you are operating under one important misconception, for I believe that;

Weather is MORE predictable!

Mainly because of all the amazing scientific advances in satellite monitoring.

Using GPS type technology to measure everything from the subtle wave cycles in our outer atmosphere’s membrane that will either reflect or focus the sun’s energy, to the similar gravitational changes in the oceans surface.

This gives meteorologist’s incredible data on predicting the heat engine that makes up weather patterns.

Meteorology is a science of “Variables” and the more data we provide, the better we as sailors can make informed decisions.

The best advice I can give any budding sailor is to make meteorology a hobby and follow the incredible developments in monitoring that will make your cruise more predictable.

[off-the-grid]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

I think you are operating under one important misconception, for I believe that;

Weather is MORE predictable!

Then why are even the so called experts wrong so often?

I lost at least 5 days in the work yard last month, because they were predicting thunderstorms all day, then starting at 10, then 11, noon, etc, etc. Until I wasted an entire day and it didn't even rain a drop.

Then there were days, where they were predicting nothing but sun, and the skies just opened up. Even as I'm getting bombed on, I'm checking the weather and it's telling me it's sunny out.

I've been diving off Jersey times, where the WX is saying thousand foot seas in our area right now, yet it's really like a lake out there.

Even check different sources at the same time for the same area, and they'll often have very conflicting reports.

Maybe they're just all idiots and you're right? I have to make meteorology more than just a hobby, and figure it out for myself.

[zeehag]

this has been the coldest summer in my area in 77yrs. global warming, my a&*. unless so cal is new north pole, we are not doing anything this planet hasnt already done many many times over before we came along to mess it all up by declaring planetary changes as not appropriate. who we gonna tax, mommy nature?? we had a la nina, then el nino then la nina again over the past 3 yrs. this winter the current off chile affecting these cyclic changes will be back to alleged normal--and your seas will again be back to wnl.
then the trade winds and sea temps will return to before la nina values. these cycles do not affect just kali and west coast--they affect the entire planet.
i am sailing away from new north pole to warm waters.

noaa was saying lies to us while we sailed the gulf for a near year in la nina then el nino conditions-saying little to no chance if rain --we got t-storms all over the place. was a gas--have fun and use more than one method of weather info collection--cant just listen to noaa over the vhf to see what is around you. you really need to be able to read the sky and not rely on the words of someone who isnt even a human. there are lots of local weather situations not covered by any national weather forecasters. must be able to know what these are and how the weather acts when you see the sky signs.

[off-the-grid]

Ain't that the truth! All the captains around here say, the only way you know is by sticking your head out the window.

[daddle]

Originally Posted by grunzster

Or have I just watched too many Discover specials about rogue waves, super volcanoes, and mega tsunamis?

Yup. Watching one episode is one too many. A nation of scared whiners. Turn off the TV and go sailing. Deal with the weather that is, not what might be.

[gosstyla]

Originally Posted by IdoraKeeper

...Wine making in Alaska...

See:
Alaska Wineries AK

[David_Old_Jersey]

The weather in New Jersey hasn't changed for me.

Probably because I don't watch the Discovery Channel NJ probably like 99% of the places in the planet wouldn't bother anyone else if it turned into a Desert, a Glacier or got hit by an Asteroid. or all 3 And for the folks from New Joisey, Old Jersey is in that 99%.

Different kettle of fish if all 99% are impacted. overnight . But not watching the Hollywood Channel nor giving money to Al Gore means I don't lie awake at night thinking about it............

In the old days of course folks had proper things to worry about, like Nazis. Nazi Paratroopers (closest the emoticons come to those ), religous wars (proper ones ) and plagues that gave more than a tickly throat - to someone on TV. And pestilence? not had a lot of that in modern times.................in comparison the "weather changing now and again - SHOCK!" is a poor substitute.

The end of timers will always be with us...........but really must try harder

[off-the-grid]

Couldn't agree more! Can we wait a few weeks for that asteroid to hit, though?

[zeehag]

asteroid is coming after the big flood--will make a tidal wave to wipe out all of landlubberville--we all need boats NOW..lol...i am ready!!!!


mom nature tells us when stuff is gonna happen--we just have to watch closer..

[IdoraKeeper]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

Different kettle of fish if all 99% are impacted. overnight . But not watching the Hollywood Channel nor giving money to Al Gore means I don't lie awake at night thinking about it............

In the old days of course folks had proper things to worry about, like Nazis. Nazi Paratroopers (closest the emoticons come to those ), religous wars (proper ones ) and plagues that gave more than a tickly throat - to someone on TV. And pestilence? not had a lot of that in modern times.................in comparison the "weather changing now and again - SHOCK!" is a poor substitute.

The end of timers will always be with us...........but really must try harder

As usual David you brilliantly inspire me. The new concept! $50.00 cruising goats! By donating the proceeds to Al Gore you prevent alot of bad things Including Nazi paratroopers who are infected with plague! As well as saving Old Jersey and New Jersey from being submerged in a rising sea.
I am still experimenting with the perforated counter top idea ... And I wish end of timers would time out.

Todd

[off-the-grid]

zeehag - Unless it hits in the ocean. Then...mega tsunami!

IdoraKeeper - No, let them be submerged, but can we do it quickly? I'm thinking of dropping the hook in midtown. I few dives on the diamond district, and we can all retire, and never have to worry about refilling the kitty.

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by grunzster

zeehag - Unless it hits in the ocean. Then...mega tsunami!

IdoraKeeper - No, let them be submerged, but can we do it quickly? I'm thinking of dropping the hook in midtown. I few dives on the diamond district, and we can all retire, and never have to worry about refilling the kitty.

What good are diamonds going to be after this? Better to dive on a fishing shop for poles/reels/lures that wil have a use.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by grunzster

Then why are even the so called experts wrong so often ...

Weather Forecast uncertainty is inevitable, because the atmosphere is a nonlinear, chaotic, and complex mixture of hydrodynamic, thermodynamic, radiation, chemical, and physical interactions.
Given these complexities, the wonder is that the forecasters can even get close on occasion!

[dana-tenacity]

When I started cruising long range ocean forecasts pretty much didn't exist, so who promised you that you could have an accurate forecast or that the weather would behave according some rule. Just go.

[Hillbillylad]

NASA predict the solar flares in the next year or so will cripple most sat navigation etc. That'll pretty much drive us back to navigating with charts and forecasting weather through observation again.
I think there is something quintessentially independent and self reliant about sailors. So I expect when the big shock to civilization comes, most won't even notice.