Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

Yep, socialism works pretty good for the 'rich'...works even better for the rich.

...like getting a loan for groceries. Skip to 2:40.

must be all that money I get from my disability from the VA.

[franksingleton]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

I'll just pull you up there. You forgot about clouds. You might want to read up on latent heat in regards to water phase transitions, too.



Also, have you ever pondered why dry deserts get hot during the day and cold at night?

I have said in one post that clouds are s problem in modelling. At some levels they have a cooling effect, at others warming. It is an area for model improvement.

Obviously, dry deserts warm by day because they are dry and lose heat rapidly at night. Modellers know all these processes. They model them as well as possible and continually strive to improve models.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Drivers of the “Great Dying”

Though our current extinction crisis is substantial, it pales in comparison to the largest extinction in Earth's history, which occurred at the end of the Permian Period. Referred to as the “Great Dying,” this event saw the loss of up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial species. Penn et al. explored the extinction dynamics of the time using Earth system models in conjunction with physiological data across animal taxa (see the Perspective by Kump). They conclude that increased marine temperatures and reduced oxygen availability were responsible for a majority of the recorded extinctions. Because similar environmental alterations are predicted outcomes of current climate change, we would be wise to take note.

INTRODUCTION
Climate change triggered by volcanic greenhouse gases is hypothesized to have caused the largest mass extinction in Earth’s history at the end of the Permian Period (~252 million years ago). Geochemical evidence provides strong support for rapid global warming and accompanying ocean oxygen (O2) loss, but a quantitative link among climate, species’ traits, and extinction is lacking. To test whether warming and O2 loss can mechanistically account for the marine mass extinction, we combined climate model simulations with an established ecophysiological framework to predict the biogeographic patterns and severity of extinction. Those predictions were confirmed by a spatially explicit analysis of the marine fossil record.

RATIONALE
The impact of climate change on marine biodiversity depends on both its magnitude and on species’ diverse biological sensitivities. Tolerances of marine animals to warming and O2 loss are physiologically related and can be represented in a single metric: the ratio of temperature-dependent O2 supply and demand rates. This ratio, termed the Metabolic Index (Φ), measures the environmental scope for aerobic activity and is governed by ocean conditions as well as thermal and hypoxia sensitivity traits that vary across species. If climate warming and O2 loss reduce Φ below the species-specific minimum requirement for sustained ecological activity (Φcrit), the ocean would no longer support active aerobic metabolism and, by extension, long-term population persistence.

RESULTS
We simulated the greenhouse gas–driven global warming at the end of the Permian using a model of Earth’s climate and coupled biogeochemical cycles that matches geochemical proxy data. The imposed increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels raises near-surface ocean temperatures by more than ~10°C and depletes global marine O2 levels by almost 80%.

To predict the impact of these changes on animal habitat and survival, we measured the frequencies of Metabolic Index traits in diverse living species and used them to define a set of model ecophysiotypes. We populated the model Permian ocean with each ecophysiotype wherever conditions provide viable habitat (Φ ≥ Φcrit), yielding an ocean with diverse, locally adapted ecophysiotypes throughout all regions. Across the climate transition, however, ocean warming increases the metabolic O2 demand amid declining supply; this removes large fractions of global aerobic habitat for the vast majority of ecophysiotypes and implies a high likelihood of extinction. We simulated the resulting mass extinction of ecophysiotypes and found a robust geographic pattern: Extinction intensity should have been lower in the tropics than at high latitudes. The cause of lower tropical extinction is that organisms initially inhabiting these warm, low-O2 environments can better exploit those conditions when they arise globally, whereas the habitats of more polar species disappear completely.

To test the geographic selectivity of the model extinction, we compared model predictions to spatially explicit reconstructions of genus extinction from the marine fossil record. We found that across diverse taxonomic groups, the observed extinction intensity indeed increases with latitude, consistent with the predicted signature of aerobic habitat loss. Comparison of the model to the fossil record implies that temperature-dependent hypoxia can account for more than half of the observed magnitude of regional extinction (i.e., extirpation).

CONCLUSION
Ocean warming and O2 loss simulated in an Earth System Model of end-Permian climate change imply widespread loss of aerobic habitat among animal types with diverse thermal and hypoxia tolerances. The resulting extinctions are predicted to select most strongly against higher-latitude species, whose biogeographic niche disappears globally. The combined physiological stresses of ocean warming and O2 loss largely account for the spatial pattern and magnitude of extinction observed in the fossil record of the “Great Dying.” These results highlight the future extinction risk arising from a depletion of the ocean’s aerobic capacity that is already under way.

"Temperature-dependent hypoxia explains biogeography and severity of end-Permian marine mass extinction" ~ Justin L. Penn, et al
➥ Temperature-dependent hypoxia explains biogeography and severity of end-Permian marine mass extinction | Science

➥ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...nction/577537/

Humans are not going extinct, where do humans get these poposterous ideas? There’re more humans onboard planet Earth today than at any time ever! What are we up to now 7 billion? 8 billion?

[franksingleton]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Gord the answer is nothing. Frank is retired.
And was a weather forecaster for the met.uk.

After joining the Met Office with a good maths degree, i had a short spell in research. I was good but there were many better. I spent about 1/3 of my working life as a forecaster, some with the RAF but including 10 years on a roster of senior forecasters for the U.K. in that time I liaised with those developing forecast models. After getting kicked upstairs, I ran a large branch providing a wide range of services using data and forecasts. I then had my last 5 years as Director of observing - everything from rain gauges to satellites via dat buoys and weather radar.

As a result I have a broad knowledge of meteorology from the most basic jobs to the top. I am not a climate scientist but I know and have worked with some of the best. I know a great deal about how models work but am removed from the detail.

Despite advancing age, my wife and I sail a HR34 and have around 50,000 miles under the keel. Much sailing English Channel, France, Spain, Portugal the Mediterranean, 10 charter trips in the Caribbean, Grenada to BVI area. Based in SW England we do not go much south of La Rochelle these days.

I have some AMD so can easily misread my own typing, so expect some typos although I try to take time to correct the most obvious.


Is that enough?

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by franksingleton

After joining the Met Office with a good maths degree, i had a short spell in research. I was good but there were many better. I spent about 1/3 of my working life as a forecaster, some with the RAF but including 10 years on a roster of senior forecasters for the U.K. in that time I liaised with those developing forecast models. After getting kicked upstairs, I ran a large branch providing a wide range of services using data and forecasts. I then had my last 5 years as Director of observing - everything from rain gauges to satellites via dat buoys and weather radar.

As a result I have a broad knowledge of meteorology from the most basic jobs to the top. I am not a climate scientist but I know and have worked with some of the best. I know a great deal about how models work but am removed from the detail.

Despite advancing age, my wife and I sail a HR34 and have around 50,000 miles under the keel. Much sailing English Channel, France, Spain, Portugal the Mediterranean, 10 charter trips in the Caribbean, Grenada to BVI area. Based in SW England we do not go much south of La Rochelle these days.

I have some AMD so can easily misread my own typing, so expect some typos although I try to take time to correct the most obvious.


Is that enough?

I suppose yes but doesn't change the part about your assumptions being incorrect

Amd ( wet or dry?)
just curious. That's the reason my dad finally quit sailing 2 years ago at 92 years young ( wet)

[Alan Mighty]

In Nippon, the government last year calculated that one thing cruisers (and other people) should expect from climate change is the loss of 60% of beaches.

Today's news is the result of a government poll of all prefectures to see if each prefecture has a climate change adaptation plan.

Result was that 70% of prefectures admitted they had not written the climate change adaptation plan required by law.

For an English translation, see: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles...0m/0na/004000c

[Alan Mighty]

In Nippon, the government last year calculated that one thing cruisers (and other people) should expect from climate change is the loss of 60% of beaches.

Today's news is the result of a government poll of all prefectures to see if each prefecture has a climate change adaptation plan.

Result was that 70% of prefectures admitted they had not written the climate change adaptation plan required by law.

For an English translation, see: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles...0m/0na/004000c

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by newhaul

obviously you didn't actually read my post or even look at the dmi page. .
The blue line at the top is the freezing point aka 0℃ and and during the entire melt season the temperature is / was below average. Yes for most of the year the temperature was marginally above the average . However it was still well below the freezing point.

Try again.

Silly, silly Newhaul! Your knowledge of thermodynamics has again let you down. The graph you presented shows the surface air temperature, and it is indeed below freezing most of the year. What it does not show is the temperature of the sea water below the ice, which is above freezing year round. Sea ice mostly melts from its interaction with "warm" sea water.

Try again.

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by newhaul

frank I have read all of the actual reports . I have read the majority of all of the reports put out on the subject( can't formulate a good opinion without data) and it is and has been my opinion that the changing climate is cyclical and humans caused co2 has little to do with it.
Its all about what the sun is doing . And its apparently taking a nap like it seems to do about every 400 years.
Wait till you see what happens in the next 12 months .
I recommend a good supply of food .

Foolish, foolish Newhaul. Have you so soon forgotten what happened when you made a cooling prediction (and bet) here on CF? At least this time you haven't made a bet, so you won't be tempted to break your promise as you did last time.

[franksingleton]

Originally Posted by newhaul

I suppose yes but doesn't change the part about your assumptions being incorrect

Amd ( wet or dry?)
just curious. That's the reason my dad finally quit sailing 2 years ago at 92 years young ( wet)

I have no idea what assumptions you refer to. I deal in facts. CO2 concentrations have increased by over 40% since 1800 and will do so further. The atmosphere will absorb more heat as a consequence. Only an ignoramus would deny those facts. Another fact is that some people in this forum do not understand basic physical principles.

Well done your dad. I have a few years to go. Our role model is a lady who did a two-handed Atlantic crossing aged 90, with her grandson not long before she died of cancer.

[franksingleton]

Originally Posted by newhaul

The fact is the arctic sea ice is growing again and the planet is cooling. Say what you want but I have been correct so far.

Burvsee https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevorn.../#258cb7531ef4.

[Jesper Milling]

We should probably expect more extreme weather, and more restrictive immigration regulations that might also influence our freedom to travel as tourists. And reduced safety when travelling in most countries due to more poverty, and the following crime.

[GordMay]

Greetings and belated welcome aboard the CF, Jesper.

First post, and directly on topic - how refreshing!

[Jesper Milling]

Originally Posted by franksingleton

Burvsee https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevorn.../#258cb7531ef4.

Did you read only the first 2/3 of the headline of the article you are linking to, and none of the subject of this thread?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Jesper Milling

Did you read only the first 2/3 of the headline of the article you are linking to, and none of the subject of this thread?

Franks was rebutting the Post by newhaul that "The (ERRONEOUS) fact is the arctic sea ice is growing again and the planet is cooling..."; which the linked article does.