The 2013 HaHa is threading a needle this time around

[rebel heart]

So Hurricane Raymond was downgraded and is now dissipating (and raining on me in La Paz as I type this), but it's still sending swell and garbage all over the place.

Now there's a high chance of another cyclone formation in the next couple of days. It doesn't have tracklines established or anything of that sort, but heading up towards the Baja peninsula certainly isn't out of the question.

If any of you HaHa guys are reading this, keep your eyes peeled on the track of this guy if it forms.

[rebel heart]

And that's 30% chance in the next two days, it's at 60% for five days. Current direction is NW, making 125nm a day.

[s/v Beth]

When does the HaHa start?

[Paul Elliott]

Originally Posted by s/v Beth

When does the HaHa start?

A couple of days ago: Oct 28

[Dos Gatos]

Read latitude from Monday. He starts out poo-pooing weather forecasts for their inaccuracies, then ends the post by citing forecasts that Raymond poses no threat.

Wants it both ways.

In the end, the important thing is everybody paid their fees and they're sailing to a schedule.

Groupthink is a beautiful thing.

[zeehag]

gotta love those schedules.

[rebel heart]

Originally Posted by Dos Gatos

Read latitude from Monday. He starts out poo-pooing weather forecasts for their inaccuracies, then ends the post by citing forecasts that Raymond poses no threat.

Wants it both ways.

In the end, the important thing is everybody paid their fees and they're sailing to a schedule.

Groupthink is a beautiful thing.

I don't want to run around like chicken little but a strong likelyhood of a cyclone that's moving in the direction of a fleet consisting of lots of sailboats is no bueno.

The schedule aspect is the chief reason we didn't do the HaHa when we came down. I saw my friends a few years back leave in peasoup fog into 10'-12' swells tossing them around. Three days later it was warm and sunny with a following breeze and flat seas.

If it materializes any further I'd really recommend the HaHa guys hold up in Turtle Bay. Once you leave there you really don't have a lot of good options.

[zeehag]

right now that orange blob is merely thunderboomers is late in the year and actual formation of a cyclonic force is slim to none, despite this percent hook onto this blob. watching active models, the thing aint gonna go anywhere. it follows the monsoonal trough. so far.
the path of haha looks fine on sailing weather prediction sites. so does more than 200 miles radius of it, except inside golfo de california. there is a potential for a chubasco just north of cabo.
not all blobs with 30/60 percent status form into anything, especially at this time of year. conditions just aint right for it


do not forget that the 5 day forecasting from nhc/noaa is still experimental, as their disclaimer states.
i use 5 sites for my forecasting, and i follow stormchasers sites, as those have best info.


this just in from lat 38....

QUOTE!!!!:

Baja Ha-Ha Update

October 30, 2013 – Pacific Ocean

The 20th annual Baja Ha-Ha has been like all the others that came before in that the conditions just keep getting better and better. The event started Monday morning in rainy conditions and, by the afternoon, the fleet were dealing with light headwinds. And, man, that first night was C-O-L-D!

Yesterday afternoon, we had 13 knots out of the northwest and smooth conditions. Now into the third day, we're 50 miles north of Cedros Island and the wind is blowing 15-18 knots out of the northwest. The sun is out with scattered clouds, and life looks lovely.

Well, except the National Hurricane Center is forecasting that a tropical storm will develop near Manzanillo and possibly head up toward Baja and Cabo. Hmmm . . . the Ha-Ha fleet and a tropical storm in the same place is not a good thing. We'll keep an eye on the forecast and see how things are developing when we reach Turtle Bay.


Passage Weather shows the depression -- with top wind speeds of 30 knots -- petering out between Cabo and PV by Monday.
© 2013 Passage Weather

Speaking of, tomorrow is the baseball game between the Baja Ha-Ha fleet and the women and children — all terrific baseball players — of Turtle Bay. We can't wait to bring you the photos!

If you're into stats, the rally started with 128 boats and 489 people, but by the time the late-starters catch up, we'll have 130 boats and more than 500 people. The fishing has been good. One boat even hooked two dorado — they landed the first but the second ripped the rod and bracket right off the boat! And the best quote so far in the event came during a morning check-in when one crewmember reported that all was well aboard the boat. "Except," he said, "we blew a guy."

And with that, until next time.


latitude / richard

[rebel heart]

Be that as it may, if a meteorologist from NOAA says that something has a 60% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone and it's headed my way, I'm wimping out and hiding.

[vegasandre]

Just took a look at the charts and satellite as of 4 pm pst. That blob is beginning to show early signs of formation/rotation. Bears close watching.

[sailorchic34]

I'm thinking the HA HA might get a little delayed with their schedule. The turtle Bay folks will sure be happy.

[Capt.Don]

Will they stop, though, since the maricahi band is waiting for them in Mag Bay!

[rebel heart]

30% in 48 hours, 70% within five days. N-NW heading at 120nm per day.

Wait in Turtle Bay guys!

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[SVRapture40]

This is exactly why I will NOT be doing the HaHa.

[Dos Gatos]

Even if the winds diminish, the sea state can get chunky. Might spill their drinks.