right now that orange blob is merely thunderboomers is late in the year and actual formation of a cyclonic force is slim to none, despite this percent hook onto this blob. watching active models, the thing aint gonna go anywhere. it follows the monsoonal trough. so far.
the path of haha looks fine on sailing weather prediction sites. so does more than 200 miles radius of it, except inside golfo de california
. there is a potential for a chubasco just north of cabo.
not all blobs with 30/60 percent status form into anything, especially at this time of year. conditions just aint right for it
do not forget that the 5 day forecasting from nhc/noaa is still experimental, as their disclaimer states.
i use 5 sites for my forecasting, and i follow stormchasers sites, as those have best info.
this just in from lat 38....
October 30, 2013 – Pacific Ocean
The 20th annual Baja Ha-Ha has been like all the others that came before in that the conditions just keep getting better and better. The event started Monday morning in rainy conditions and, by the afternoon, the fleet were dealing with light headwinds. And, man, that first night was C-O-L-D!
Yesterday afternoon, we had 13 knots out of the northwest and smooth conditions. Now into the third day, we're 50 miles north of Cedros Island and the wind
is blowing 15-18 knots out of the northwest. The sun is out with scattered clouds, and life looks lovely.
Well, except the National Hurricane
Center is forecasting that a tropical storm will develop near Manzanillo and possibly head
up toward Baja and Cabo. Hmmm . . . the Ha-Ha fleet and a tropical storm in the same place is not a good thing. We'll keep an eye on the forecast
and see how things are developing when we reach Turtle Bay.
Weather shows the depression -- with top wind
speeds of 30 knots -- petering out between Cabo and PV by Monday.
© 2013 Passage
Speaking of, tomorrow is the baseball game
between the Baja Ha-Ha fleet and the women and children
— all terrific baseball players — of Turtle Bay. We can't wait to bring you the photos!
If you're into stats, the rally started with 128 boats and 489 people, but by the time the late-starters catch up, we'll have 130 boats and more than 500 people. The fishing
has been good. One boat
even hooked two dorado — they landed the first but the second ripped the rod and bracket right off the boat! And the best quote so far in the event came during a morning check-in when one crewmember reported that all was well aboard the boat
. "Except," he said, "we blew a guy."
And with that, until next time.
latitude / richard