Vendee Globe Starts Today, Facts, Video, Discussion

[Polux]

Armel won big over Alex on the last 4 hours. Alex is now at 134.6nm and Armel is quickly going away doing more 5.5K.

And more important than that the man finally spoke to say that he is pissed with the weather and with Alex's good luck

“The situation isn’t very clear in comparison to the forecasts,” the exasperated Breton skipper said. “For two or three days it’s been hard getting north.

It’s been thundery weather since the Equator. The Doldrums travelled up with us with big clouds and heavy squalls. It hasn’t been as thundery since yesterday, but is very cloudy, and we’ve got some more complicated patches ahead. It’s different from the usual scenario and I’m at the limit of my understanding of the weather.”

...“We don’t have manoeuvres like we did in the Southern Ocean, It’s just a question of trimming depending on what the wind throws at us. I thought I had got away from the Doldrums but that wasn’t the case. It was more favourable for Alex and that's hard to take. For the moment, we’re in front. We are going to have to see what happens.”
News - Le Cléac’h vents frustration at complex final week - Vendée Globe 2016-2017

I guess that "we" is him and the boat that know it appears to have gained an identity for him

Not a man of many words, Armel.

[Bleemus]

I find it odd that Alex posted a video of him on port tack in light winds about 8 hours ago. Must have been an older video or the GRIB files are wrong.

[Polux]

As I said some day ago, I don't think Alex can catch Armel if he follows him.

These are ideal conditions for Armel with delicate tuning of the sails and delicate routing and there is only one more occasion where Alex can come close.

But we have seen that coming close is not enough, so in about 24 hours is the last chance for Alex to try something radical and a completely different routing on the last high they will encounter.

The chances are slim because Armel will chose probably the best routing but you never know, on very light conditions the files are sometimes different than real conditions and it is better a slight chance than none, I mean unless Armel has a problem on the boat.

After passing that low it is a highway till France, were Alex can recover some miles, since he would be on the right foil and with medium to strong wind Alex's boat is faster, but it will be some few miles a day, not enough to recover the 210 nm disadvantage (and Armel is still winning).

Some explanation why I was pretty sure that on these light winds and changeable conditions with constant sail trimming Armel would be better:

These are not the typical conditions on this type of races, where the weather systems use to be stronger and less variable. These are conditions similar to the ones that the will find doing coastal solo racing on the coasts of Europe.

Alex has no particular training on those conditions being exclusively an IMOCA racer but Armel, like many other French solo racers has a more diversified racing carer and besides multihulls he is also a Figaro racer. Figaro are small 33ft boats, all have equal boats, and the solo races, specially the biggest of them all, the Solitaire du Figaro, are most of the time raced on these variable light wind conditions. Endurance, exceptional trimming and routing is what makes a winner.

You may think that I am exaggerating but I have saw great sailors that had won the mini transat arriving at the Figaro, having to pay sail trimming lessons with some of the specialists and even so never reaching the first places and many times being near the tail. In fact there is no other race where to be the best rookie means so much.

Armel won the Solitaire du Figaro in 2010 and was 8th on 2013, but winning one of the legs.

Of course, it could happen that Armel failed to take the huge pressure Alex was putting on him, that he becomes exhausted and not able to trim the boat as much as it needed, not being able to sail it properly, but that would be very unlike Armel. They call him the Chacal for something: he is know to be extremely enduring and never give in.

The last video with Alex and a bird that surprisingly Alex don't know. Those are very common on the coasts of Portugal. We call them Albatroz but obviously they are different than the big ones that Alex know from the Austral Ocean. They dive, sometimes from great high, like a bullet, to catch a fish and almost never fail. Many year ago I had one following the little fake fish that was trailing behind my boat and even if i try everything to prevent him to grab that particular fish, no dice and soon y I was "fishing" a flying Albatroz that went high on the air.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkCIPmWCAVU

[donradcliffe]

I'm 95% sure that Alex has a broken boat. He is averaging only 10k the last 24 hrs in reaching conditions over 15k of wind. My virtual boat is just east of Hugo Boss and I'm averaging 14-15k. If he doesn't fix his problem soon, he may lose more places.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by donradcliffe

I'm 95% sure that Alex has a broken boat. He is averaging only 10k the last 24 hrs in reaching conditions over 15k of wind. My virtual boat is just east of Hugo Boss and I'm averaging 14-15k. If he doesn't fix his problem soon, he may lose more places.

Yes. This is one possibility.

Another possibility is he is in a wind hole. He is not yet out of the turbulent area and so what propels you on your grib driven virtual boat may be virtually absent on the water.

I have seen it many times with my clients crossing the same area that a 15kts grib was dead calm in situ. The opposite being true just as often.

You may remember going down the track in the first phase of the race he got just the opposite - he went thru never stopping once while others had way less wind luck.

We will see how it develops. Armel never says what is broken on his boat. As if nothing ever has been ...

Cheers,
b.

[donradcliffe]

Perhaps, he is very unlucky with the wind, but I doubt that it lasts over 24 hours. When I roll the tracker back so Amel is in the same spot as Alex is doing 10k, Amel is going 15k.

Alex is now 400 miles downwind of the Cape Verdes, but if his performance suffers the next 24 hrs, my feeling that he has boat problems goes to 100%.

[Polux]

Regarding the race nothing new, they are passing Cabo Verde: Armel is still winning miles and Alex is at about 226nm, about the distance I said, more than a week ago, they would been when passing Cabo Verde a lucky shoot.

But I found out something interesting, the number of "racers" doing the virtual vendee. Even if many follow the vendee without making the virtual race, that can give an idea of the comparative interest that different countries have for the race....and I was surprised by the great number of Americans. These are the numbers from the Top ten:

France: 415 552!!!!!!!
Switzerland: 6 555
Spain: 6 246
United States: 4 632
UK: 4 626
Belgium: 4 611
Italy: 4 047
Canada: 3,274
Germany: 2 466
Holland: 1 644
There are players from all continents and 199 countries!!!!!!

Not surprised for Swiss to come in 2nd. Small population but sailing is big there and even if this year they don't have Bernard Stamm racing, the interest is still considerable.

In spain, with several sailors entering big international offshore races and circumnavigation races, the interest is growing fast, but I confess that the relatively low interest on UK comes as a surprise to me: After Ellen, Golding and now Alex Thompson having made and being making great races the number of the ones making the virtual race is about the same as the ones in Belgium??!!!!

Germany comes also a bit of a surprise to me given the big population. Next edition I am sure the interest will raise since Boris Herrmann has bought Gitana, Josse's boat on this edition, a new fast one. It will be the first German to do the Vendee and Boris is a good sailor, relatively young (35) and will have plenty of time for training.

Not really a top sailor but one that has had already some good results, like the 11th place on the 2001 transat, a 2th place on the 2008 Artemis Transat on a class 40, won with Felix Oehme the Portimão Global world race ( a circumnavigation race for 40class racers) and was fifth on IMOCA Neutrogena in the Barcelona World Race (2010-2011) ( a two-handed non-stop round-the-world . On the last years he have been working mostly as crew on some top professional sailing crews on some main events and crewed sailing records.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYIinJwNcz0

Good to see him back to top solo racing with a competitive sailboat, this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3on5CYbZP4

[Polux]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

Yes. This is one possibility.

Another possibility is he is in a wind hole. He is not yet out of the turbulent area and so what propels you on your grib driven virtual boat may be virtually absent on the water.

I have seen it many times with my clients crossing the same area that a 15kts grib was dead calm in situ. The opposite being true just as often.

You may remember going down the track in the first phase of the race he got just the opposite - he went thru never stopping once while others had way less wind luck.

We will see how it develops. Armel never says what is broken on his boat. As if nothing ever has been ...

Cheers,
b.

No, that is not a possibility. I mean having broken the mast.

He is on the same situation Armel was when apparently was losing miles for Alex without reason. On very unstable and weak winds or in zones with a big instability the grib files don't give a real picture of the situation.

[gamayun]

Originally Posted by Polux

The last video with Alex and a bird that surprisingly Alex don't know. Those are very common on the coasts of Portugal. We call them Albatroz but obviously they are different than the big ones that Alex know from the Austral Ocean. They dive, sometimes from great high, like a bullet, to catch a fish and almost never fail. Many year ago I had one following the little fake fish that was trailing behind my boat and even if i try everything to prevent him to grab that particular fish, no dice and soon y I was "fishing" a flying Albatroz that went high on the air.

Alex is in good company, but will need to get a faster boat to keep up with the albatross. One circumnavigated in 46 days and they can fly faster than the wind, clocking speeds of more than 100 kph. They're also a lot like solo sailors, spending years at a time at sea; only coming ashore to mate. Beautiful and amazing seabirds!

[barnakiel]

I do not know in Portuguese but from your description it sounds much like an Alcatraz not an Albatroz. Alcatrazes are Sulas, so gannets and bobbies and the ceteras. What you say how they fish matches a sula exactly.

Or else maybe a petrel of sorts. Except that petrels do not fish deep not hawk and dive. I have to look up Alex video for this. Maybe I can tell if the vid is clear enough. Can you link?

Cheers,
b.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

I do not know in Portuguese but from your description it sounds much like an Alcatraz not an Albatroz. Alcatrazes are Sulas, so gannets and bobbies and the ceteras. What you say how they fish matches a sula exactly.

Or else maybe a petrel of sorts. Except that petrels do not fish deep not hawk and dive. I have to look up Alex video for this. Maybe I can tell if the vid is clear enough. Can you link?

Cheers,
b.

You have the video on post 318. You are right. Everybody, including the fishermen call the bird Albatroz but I checked out and it seems that the correct name in Portuguese is Ganso-Patola, the scientific name is Morus bassanus. We have also the Alcatraz that is not very different but much darker and with a different head - Sula leucogaster.

One of the characteristics that I had noticed on that one that I "fished" when I was setting it free from the hook is that besides being quite wild and aggressive (I had to throw a jacket over it to be able to hold it) was those incredibly bright blue eyes. On the images it is the white one with blue eyes.

[donradcliffe]

Looks like a boobie to me, but I've never seen one in the Atlantic. Yes, I have had them plunge dive on my lures, and it didn't end well.

Looks like Barnakiel was right. Alex is now up to over 18k, and is pulling away from my virtual boat. Maybe I should have sprung for the optional sails.

The routing looks pretty straightforward with no passing lanes until the last 500 miles.

[Polux]

Last chance for Alex, that is winning miles again over Armel, that is starting the passage of the last big treacherous high and one that has becoming bigger (bigger than the last time I watched).

These weather systems have become so irregular in what regards light winds and high pressure regions and the forecasts so changing that you look at one region and look again 2 days after and the prevision is substantially different.

Very challenging conditions for two days and a half and finally Alex seems to be opting for a slightly different routing with some lateral separation from Armel.

The distance between them is of about 228nm, but decreasing rapidly, Alex is doing 3.2k faster than Armel and probably that difference of speed is going to increase today.

Alex needs to go out of this 60 hours passage by the wind minefield very close or ahead of Armel because after that it is all easy sailing till near the North coast of France. Then they will have another difficult passage but one that can only turn to Alex's favor if they have a smaller distance between them.

If Armel arrives there maintaining a 200 nm advantages than I believe he will win the race.

Curiously the router, that is now showing different course option for both, predicts they will arrive very close at that point (or not), depending on each other routing. I believe the router has in consideration the probable superior speed of Alex's boat on the strong to medium winds that they will have after passing the light wind zone.

Have a look at all this interesting stuff here, looking at the previsions:
https://gis.ee/vg/

They will fight till the end.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Polux

You have the video on post 318.(...)

Yes. The pictures you show (very beautiful images too!) all show varieties and various live stages of sulas. The video by Alex also seems to show a bird behaving like a sula, esp. the moment when it rapidly 'dives'. A petrel does not do that.

I cannot tell from the video but a marine biologist would. Sulas (gannets, boobies, etc) live in the area where he is now. As do petrels. Otherwise, offshore, there is not much of bird species variety. I have only ever seen gannets, petrels, tropics and albatroses far offshore. In the video it is neither of them.

My bet is on a gannet then.

b.

[Suijin]

Next 36 hours will be critical given the high they have to navigate. Whoever is the better light air sailor will have distinct advantage. Alex is going to have to make up some miles if he wants to have a real chance at the win when they enter heavier air. If he doesn't then I think the race is over, barring the unexpected.

All other things being equal, its the racers that can keep their boat moving in light air that do well over the long haul (distance or series). This should be interesting.