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Old 11-08-2016, 16:54   #2686
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY View Post
Now Reef...I was going to make him work for that basic scientific understanding rather than give it too him so easily. You sir are much more of a gentlemen than I...
Sorry about that. I do feel sorry for those whose biases preclude them from rational consideration of other causes. This kind of thing seems to "crop" up a lot.

Here's some examples.

The alarmists say...


Their bias precludes them from considering this...


and this...


The alarmists are quick to point out...
Global warming means more snowstorms: scientists

Quote:
Global warming means more snowstorms: scientists
Their bias precludes them from considering this...



And speaking of "crop", that previous bewildering discussion about CO2 not being a plant food, crops suffering and all that garbage...
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Old 11-08-2016, 19:23   #2687
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Ok, I have a couple question.

Will someone please explain what MMGW means, I really don't know.

And will one of you scientist please explain this.

My car, when I drive it. puts out more Carbon Monoxide in an hour than I put out or anything else I do, puts out in a Year.

No math here, I don't put out any carbon MONOXIDE. Manufacturing the things I own might create some but that is not me.

Myself, the only carbon dioxide I put out is what I breath out. I'm not a plant I don't have an oxygen cycle. But plants have a carbon dioxide cycle.
( Yes they do look it up. ) Duh.

Ok, so why is all the focus on Carbon DIOXIDE?

Of all the greenhouse gases put out by all the various things that put out greenhouse gases, why is Carbon DIOXIDE the one everyone is shouting about?

Again my car puts out more carbon MONOXIDE which is a greenhouse gas, in an hour than I put out carbon Dioxide in a month.

I mean you can just look at Houston or LA or Denver. That is Carbon Monoxide not carbon dioxide.

Yet no one talks about that.

So here is the question ? If global warming is real ( not my point either way ). then why aren't we talking about Carbon Monoxide, or Sulphur Dioxide, or hydrogen sulfide, or any of the 100 other greenhouse gases.

Why are we talking about the only thing that we know we can't live without producing, and the entire biosphere of the earth can't live without using, as a poison and not about cars and other stuff?

Please do me a favor and just answer the question. If you don't know then this question is not directed at you.
If your car has a functioning catalytic converter then it produces very little CO.

Other Indirect Greenhouse Gases - Carbon monoxide

Quote:
Carbon monoxide (CO) is only a very weak direct greenhouse gas, but has important indirect effects on global warming. Carbon monoxide reacts with hydroxyl (OH) radicals in the atmosphere, reducing their abundance. As OH radicals help to reduce the lifetimes of strong greenhouse gases, like methane, carbon monoxide indirectly increases the global warming potential of these gases.

Carbon monoxide in the atmosphere can also lead to the formation of the tropospheric greenhouse gas 'ozone'. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon monoxide vary widely around the world and throughout the year, ranging from as low as 30 parts per billion up to around 200 parts per billion. Concentrations increased during the 20th century, but there are some signs that concentrations dropped slightly in the 1990s due to widespread use of catalytic convertors, with their lower carbon monoxide emissions, in cars.

Aside from man-made sources, a great deal of carbon monoxide comes from the chemical oxidation of methane and other hydrocarbons in our atmosphere. Additional natural sources include emission from vegetation and the world's oceans. By far the largest sink for carbon monoxide is its reaction with OH in the atmosphere, as noted previously. However, a small but significant amount is also lost from the atmosphere through deposition on the ground.

Human Impact

Today more than half of carbon monoxide emissions are man-made. The highest concentrations of carbon monoxide tend to occur close to areas of high human population. On a global scale, this has meant that the more densely populated northern hemisphere has higher concentrations of carbon monoxide than the southern hemisphere. Biomass burning and fossil fuel use are the main sources of man-made carbon monoxide emissions.

Potential for control

As with many direct and indirect greenhouse gases, reductions in carbon monoxide emissions can most effectively be made through direct reductions in fossil fuel use. There is some evidence that the widespread use of catalytic convertors in cars has significantly reduced carbon monoxide emissions from this source. However, such reductions must be balanced against the increased emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide which often result from a switch to catalytic convertors.
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Old 11-08-2016, 19:41   #2688
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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We are waiting to see the predicted models and the resulting real life measurements...as a Scientist...that's called having a Theory and then testing said Theory.

Still waiting....
That's actually well understood and called conformation bias, a good scientist would be very familiar and wary of this, remaining open minded to the wealth of evidence available and lack of alternative driving mechanisms. .
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Old 11-08-2016, 20:00   #2689
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Nice try...but A Scientist knows that trying to compare the Historical Data on hurricanes is bogus due to the inability to have good historical DATA vs anecdotal observations. There are many papers and data presented on this topic....Google can be your friend as a way out of MMGWC
Hi SV TD. Keep up the good fight. By the way, you used the term "way out of MMGWC". This got me thinking. Remembering the likes of people in the past who got caught up in Hara K and other Indian cults, it was necessary for many cult escapees to undergo serious deprogramming and therapy.

Don't you think the same or even more rigorous intervention and deprogramming is needed for the MMGWC cultists? Many may think that we are indeed dealing with something akin to international mass hysteria. Hysterical notions of impending doom and the need to convince others of their hyterical notions is by definition a certain symptom of mental illness that has progressed to the point of a serious psychosis.

We may have to look at spending more money on mental health care for the poor hyterical alarmists by diverting money away from projects currently funded as a result of their psychosis.

The study of mass psychosis and the mind of the psychoticlly deluded is a much more needed and important endeavor than using the tax system to divert resources into Solindra ventures.
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Old 11-08-2016, 23:56   #2690
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Many may think that we are indeed dealing with something akin to international mass hysteria. Hysterical notions of impending doom and the need to convince others of their hyterical notions is by definition a certain symptom of mental illness that has progressed to the point of a serious psychosis.
One wonders what Charles MacKay would say about it if he were still been around?

https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary.../dp/1463740514
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Old 12-08-2016, 00:16   #2691
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Thanks Stu. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds. Haven't read that one but looks like it would be worth reading.
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Old 12-08-2016, 03:07   #2692
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli



I assume you know it if this is directed at you or not.


de·lu·sion
dəˈlo͞oZHən/
noun
noun: delusion; plural noun: delusions
  1. an idiosyncratic belief or impression that is firmly maintained despite being contradicted by what is generally accepted as reality or rational argument, typically a symptom of mental disorder.


con·fir·ma·tion bi·as
noun
noun: confirmation bias
  1. the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories.
  2. The tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities

Dunning–Kruger effect


A cognitive bias in which relatively unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability to be much higher than it really is. Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their own ineptitude and evaluate their own ability accurately. Their research also suggests corollaries: highly skilled individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.




"A study from 2015 identified 4,556 individuals with overlapping network ties to 164 organizations which are responsible for the most efforts to downplay the threat of climate change in the U.S.[93][94]"

So who in the room are members of 'the club'?



Meanwhile, the science advances and scientists soberly stack layer after layer of confirming evidence to the mountain already existing, while pseudo-skeptical deniers, agenda-less, hysterical and loud, cry out about vast conspiracies and unsupported (and unsupportable), illusory fears.



Do you suffer from CCDD (climate change denial disorder)?




or, for a more home-made perspective

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Old 12-08-2016, 04:06   #2693
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Do you suffer from CCDD (climate change denial disorder)?


or, for a more home-made perspective
Too Funny!
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Old 12-08-2016, 04:14   #2694
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

94 million-year-old climate change event holds clues for future | Florida State 24/7
Quote:
A major climate event millions of years ago that caused substantial change to the ocean’s ecological systems may hold clues as to how the Earth will respond to future climate change, a Florida State University researcher said.

In a new study published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Assistant Professor of Geology Jeremy Owens explains that parts of the ocean became inhospitable for some organisms as the Earth’s climate warmed 94 million years ago. As the Earth warmed, several natural elements — what we think of as vitamins — depleted, causing some organisms to die off or greatly decrease in numbers.

The elements that faded away were vanadium and molybdenum, important trace metals that serve as nutrients for ocean life. Molybdenum in particular is used by bacteria to help promote nitrogen fixation, which is essential for all forms of life...
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Old 12-08-2016, 04:17   #2695
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets? | Geophysical Research Letters
Quote:
Abstract

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5°C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net −5 Gt CO2/yr, compared with −1.5 Gt CO2/yr in RCP2.6). More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2°C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2°C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5°C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50 year overshoot of 1.5°C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060.

[...]

5 Conclusions

These broad conclusions give us some early indication of what should be expected in the maximum mitigation experiments in CMIP6 (which will be conducted as part of the ScenarioMIP experimental design [O'Neill et al., 2016]). The current draft of the experimental design includes an update of RCP2.6 (SSP1-RCP2.6) and a more aggressive mitigation scenario (SSP1-RCP2.0) which will achieve 2.6 and 2.0 W m−2 of forcing, respectively, by 2100. But as the present study demonstrates, if mitigation begins in 2015 rather than 2005 this must come at a cost—and in the case of the current version of SSP1-RCP2.6, this is achieved with net end-of-century negative emissions significantly greater than those seen in the original RCP2.6 together with more rapid mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. ScenarioMIP also contains a more aggressive mitigation scenario (tentatively planned as SSP1-RCP2.0), which will explore the possibility of reducing forcing to 2.0 W m−2 by 2100. This is achieved though very rapid near-term mitigation (relative to the original RCP2.6), with net zero CO2 emissions occurring by 2060 (in line with our estimates of what would be required for a 1.5° overshoot scenario). The realism of such a scenario can be debated, but the present study would imply that unless such rapid near-term mitigation is realized in the coming decade, future phases of CMIP will find it increasingly difficult or impossible to justify the assumptions required to produce scenarios which avoid 1.5° of warming.

In summary, the chances of avoiding the 2° and especially the 1.5° temperature target are highly sensitive to the timing of climate mitigation, which is in line with the findings of previous studies [den Elzen et al., 2010; Rogelj et al., 2013]. Current INDCs could not avoid 2° of warming without relying on substantially greater net negative emissions later in the century than was proposed in RCP2.6, a capability that is not certain to be realized [Fuss et al., 2014; Smith et al., 2015]. In order to achieve 2° with an RCP2.6 level of long-term carbon removal, 2030 net GHGEs must be reduced by 10% from 2015 levels, significantly more than the unconditional INDCs (which allow 2030 and 2015 emissions to be effectively equal).

Avoiding 1.5° of warming altogether, even with immediate action, would require considerably greater effort—at least a 25% cut in effective global CO2 emissions from present-day levels by 2030, a rate of reduction which many would consider impossible. However, allowing for a 50 year overshoot of 1.5° gives more flexibility; we find a scenario in which immediate action achieves a 10% cut in effective CO2 emissions by 2030, combined with large-scale deployment of negative emission technologies which enable net zero effective greenhouse gas emissions in 2060 would likely allow temperatures to exceed 1.5° for 50 years, with temperatures peaking at 1.8°. Such a 1.5° overshoot scenario would still require emissions in the 2030s to be reduced by over 4% of present-day values per year, and if the world follows RCP8.5 for another 5 years, then a 6% reduction in present-day emissions per year would be necessary. The likelihood of a 1.5° world and even a 2° world can be maximized with substantial and prompt global action, and each year following the RCP8.5 pathway lowers the probability that either target can be achieved.
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Old 12-08-2016, 14:12   #2696
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post


I assume you know it if this is directed at you or not.


de·lu·sion
dəˈlo͞oZHən/
noun
noun: delusion; plural noun: delusions
  1. an idiosyncratic belief or impression that is firmly maintained despite being contradicted by what is generally accepted as reality or rational argument, typically a symptom of mental disorder.


con·fir·ma·tion bi·as
noun
noun: confirmation bias
  1. the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories.
  2. The tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities

Dunning–Kruger effect


A cognitive bias in which relatively unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability to be much higher than it really is. Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their own ineptitude and evaluate their own ability accurately. Their research also suggests corollaries: highly skilled individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.




"A study from 2015 identified 4,556 individuals with overlapping network ties to 164 organizations which are responsible for the most efforts to downplay the threat of climate change in the U.S.[93][94]"

So who in the room are members of 'the club'?



Meanwhile, the science advances and scientists soberly stack layer after layer of confirming evidence to the mountain already existing, while pseudo-skeptical deniers, agenda-less, hysterical and loud, cry out about vast conspiracies and unsupported (and unsupportable), illusory fears.



Do you suffer from CCDD (climate change denial disorder)?




or, for a more home-made perspective

LOL. I think you are deflecting rather than reflecting.

Using the word deflecting as is used in mental health circles.
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Old 12-08-2016, 14:23   #2697
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

Carbon Credits are the Modern Day Indulgences of the MMGWC.
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Old 12-08-2016, 14:23   #2698
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

I like definition of delusional. One important description left out is "the person who accepts highly questionable information and then prozyltises to others attempting to convert them to their dogma, belief, questionable "new facts". This type of delusion is often seen in cult members such as "the climate alarmist people".

Stu suggested a great book. I think it would work as a great first deprogramming primer for AGW cultists wishing to escape.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds

https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary.../dp/1463740514
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Old 12-08-2016, 14:32   #2699
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

One other point regarding mass hysteria and global warming alarmists. It is they who started to say warming "deniers" are crazy.

It is usual in the case of a mental disorder such as a psychotic hysteric that they will be the first to think others are crazy.
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Old 12-08-2016, 14:37   #2700
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Re: Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooli

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Carbon Credits are the Modern Day Indulgences of the MMGWC.
I usually agree with you but on this I can not. Carbon credits in fact are the tool of neo-socialists. Today's neo-socialists are yesterday's Marxist-Lenanist Communists.
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