Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 29-03-2015, 10:54   #151
Senior Cruiser
 
sneuman's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: May 2003
Location: Jamaica
Boat: Tayana 37 Cutter
Posts: 3,167
Images: 37
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
there is NO side.
. politically, yes, there are sides, as the all controlling big brother wants to also control climate.
OR tax citizens for no reason.
believing in the REALITY of constant change is healthier than running about trying to repair something unrepairable and progressive.
personally, i do not care who has headupassosis
i live my way, as each of you judgementalists should also do
remember how your personal gods say....judge NOT lest thee be judged.
It's not a question of judging. It's a question of fact. There are indeed two sides in this debate, as this thread has so ably shown. One side is right, and one side is wrong. The stakes are non-trivial.

What you offer up is ignoring there's even a problem. I simply don't accept that.
__________________

__________________
sneuman is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 11:28   #152
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,772
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sneuman View Post
It's not a question of judging. It's a question of fact. There are indeed two sides in this debate, as this thread has so ably shown. One side is right, and one side is wrong. The stakes are non-trivial.

What you offer up is ignoring there's even a problem. I simply don't accept that.
who the f is ignoring anything.
as USUAL there are many MORE than merely two sides to a POLITICAL situation.
this one was spawned for selfish political reasons by a former presidunce of vice for personal gains has been overabused in many different ways.
just because someone sees REALITY from a different place in the woods or from a different spot on the oceans does not mean they are either wrong or ignoring factual reality.
i have been based firmly in science and reality all my life and shall always be same.
i do not believe in the fraudulantly hyped bs that continues to be fraudulently hyped in name and hope of creating useless taxations.
what is occurring cannot be reversed snd is planets.own way of dealing with constant change-- by CHANGING.
if you truly believe we humans caused all of this constant change you are severely arrogant and mistaken.
yes stuff is changing and yes it shall continue to so do DESPITE your personal arrogance and vain useless efforts.
YO MOMMA DONT WORK HERE--CLEAN UP AFTER YOURSELF.
__________________

__________________
zeehag is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 11:38   #153
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,772
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

p.s. aint MY ulcer......
more than only two " sides " to anything.
think CIRCLE
zeehag is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 12:41   #154
Don't ask if you can't handle it
 
sailorboy1's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: On the boat somewhere
Boat: Hunter 410
Posts: 12,319
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

153 posts, do we know whether the seas are more violent yet?
__________________
jobless, houseless, clueless, living on a boat and cruising around somewhere
sailorboy1 is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 12:55   #155
Senior Cruiser
 
sneuman's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: May 2003
Location: Jamaica
Boat: Tayana 37 Cutter
Posts: 3,167
Images: 37
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
who the f is ignoring anything.
as USUAL there are many MORE than merely two sides to a POLITICAL situation.
this one was spawned for selfish political reasons by a former presidunce of vice for personal gains has been overabused in many different ways.
just because someone sees REALITY from a different place in the woods or from a different spot on the oceans does not mean they are either wrong or ignoring factual reality.
i have been based firmly in science and reality all my life and shall always be same.
i do not believe in the fraudulantly hyped bs that continues to be fraudulently hyped in name and hope of creating useless taxations.
what is occurring cannot be reversed snd is planets.own way of dealing with constant change-- by CHANGING.
if you truly believe we humans caused all of this constant change you are severely arrogant and mistaken.
yes stuff is changing and yes it shall continue to so do DESPITE your personal arrogance and vain useless efforts.
YO MOMMA DONT WORK HERE--CLEAN UP AFTER YOURSELF.
While I'd have to admit there's room for error in deciphering your tortured syntax, I am not sure how I could have misinterpreted this as anything but apathy:

"believing in the REALITY of constant change is healthier than running about trying to repair something unrepairable and progressive.
personally, i do not care who has headupassosis
i live my way ..."

Apologies if I got it wrong.
__________________
sneuman is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 13:06   #156
Registered User

Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 90
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Wow...and excellent thread. Much more than I expect from the usual climate change blog. But indeed, sailing is very connected to reality. I have worked in renewable energy now for 35 years. The rapid switch the R.E. is the only answer to excess fossil carbon in the atmosphere. Let me assure you that the technologies are here today to meet the challenge. However, we do NOT have the political will to put policies in place to send the marketplace the correct signals to unleash the competitive entrepreneurs. We still give 10X's the subsidies to fossil energy as we give to R.E., and you know why. Solar PV prices have come down 75% in the last 5 years...and will continue to come down....and are now at parity with fossils in many U.S. metro areas. We did not leave the stone age because we ran out of rocks but we must leave the fossil age very very soon. Every solar P.V system you put on your boats, help. The more you know about the issue...it helps. The more you are willing to talk to your fellow cruisers about this issue...it helps. The views in this group are changing rapidly...as well they should...it helps. The extreme weather events are increasing and will continue to do so for as long as we will be alive. You can argue about the amount, but I've been watching this issue professionally for a couple of decades and each and every empirical study that is updated shows the previous study underestimated the impacts. This is a trend that brings no joy to whoville. Actuarial tables (losses) will/are causing our insurance rates to increase...and we will need to be prepared for more extreme weather out there...and we will need to be adaptable to increasing changes. That is our responsibility...not to hide our heads in the sand and pretend.
__________________
Eddiefuego is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 14:16   #157
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 570
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eddiefuego View Post
Wow... I've been watching this issue professionally for a couple of decades and each and every empirical study that is updated shows the previous study underestimated the impacts...

That is our responsibility...not to hide our heads in the sand and pretend.
Many things in your post are wrong, but the above is inexcusable if you really do follow the science closely.

The sensitivity of average global temperature to atmospheric CO2 concentrations has repeatedly been lowered by the IPCC between the first estimate by Hansen in 1988 and the latest IPCC report. In fact, sensitivity is now estimated to be less than half Hansen's initial estimate. It's amusing that this has resulted in recent statements by Hansen that too much attention is being paid to sensitivity and feedback effects.

We don't need "pretend" on anyone's part...warmist nor denier...but rather realism...and the trends in the studies now are that it's time to tone down calls for draconian cuts in fossil fuel use that would cause widespread harm, and to give more emphasis to adaptation, because we have more time to refine the science. Even the latest IPCC report takes that approach.

Break, break...reports I have read state that westerly trade winds in the Pacific are enhanced above the average, and in fact are responsible for the majority of the sea level rise in the Western Pacific.
__________________
fryewe is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 14:35   #158
Senior Cruiser
 
sneuman's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: May 2003
Location: Jamaica
Boat: Tayana 37 Cutter
Posts: 3,167
Images: 37
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Say what you will, but getting 7 years worth of rain in 12 hours in the driest place on Earth is very odd indeed.

Chile desert rains sign of climate change: chief weather scientist | Reuters
__________________
sneuman is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 14:53   #159
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 570
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sneuman View Post
Say what you will, but getting 7 years worth of rain in 12 hours in the driest place on Earth is very odd indeed.

Chile desert rains sign of climate change: chief weather scientist | Reuters
Not so odd when you consider that in most years that desert gets no rain...and when it does rain, it's generally during El Ninos...and there is a weak El Niño in progress...and El Ninos occur every 2-7 years on avèrage (but its been longer than seven years since the last one)...and that seven times the average rainfall is...wait for it...almost exactly how much rain fell.

Attempts to conflate sky-is-falling weather stories with climate change without rationale is fuel for skepticism, and counterproductive to coherent discussion of the science.
__________________
fryewe is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 15:08   #160
Registered User
 
Gadagirl's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Virginia
Posts: 641
Send a message via Skype™ to Gadagirl
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

I don’t give a D**n about what your favorite polute-tition tells you. Or, If you don’t believe in “Climate Change” or “Global Warming”. But fact is fact, there are carbons spewing from our factories causing smog and haze, asthma, cancer etc. The excess carbon is being saturated into the sea causing havoc with that eco system. Run off from herbicides and insecticides are killing natural habitat also. So if you can’t get behind any kind of government policy, or just a grass roots policy, you’ve just basically bought into, or more realistically “have been bought” by your by your preferred ideology.
I don’t get it. Here of all places, a cruising forum. Where most of us are old enough to have witnessed the decline of valuable coral reefs and fish stocks. You can hate all you want, deny all you want, but the pollution has to stop.
__________________
Life will give you whatever experience is most helpful for the evolution of your consciousness. - Eckhart Tolle
Gadagirl is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 15:51   #161
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 570
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadagirl View Post
I don’t give a D**n about what your favorite polute-tition tells you. Or, If you don’t believe in “Climate Change” or “Global Warming”. But fact is fact, there are carbons spewing from our factories causing smog and haze, asthma, cancer etc. The excess carbon is being saturated into the sea causing havoc with that eco system. Run off from herbicides and insecticides are killing natural habitat also. So if you can’t get behind any kind of government policy, or just a grass roots policy, you’ve just basically bought into, or more realistically “have been bought” by your by your preferred ideology.
I don’t get it. Here of all places, a cruising forum. Where most of us are old enough to have witnessed the decline of valuable coral reefs and fish stocks. You can hate all you want, deny all you want, but the pollution has to stop.
Nice rant, gada...incoherent, but nice.

Scattergun approach sometimes hits the target with at least one pellet, but in this case, it didn't draw a feather. It helps to be able to see the target and point at it.

Enthusiasm is a great trait, but absent understanding, it's all heat and no light.

Youre not letting Sunday afternoon rum toddies do the talking for you...are you?
__________________
fryewe is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 16:09   #162
Registered User
 
Mike OReilly's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Good question
Boat: Rafiki 37
Posts: 4,036
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by fryewe View Post
The sensitivity of average global temperature to atmospheric CO2 concentrations has repeatedly been lowered by the IPCC between the first estimate by Hansen in 1988 and the latest IPCC report. In fact, sensitivity is now estimated to be less than half Hansen's initial estimate. It's amusing that this has resulted in recent statements by Hansen that too much attention is being paid to sensitivity and feedback effects.
According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there is high confidence that equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is likely between 1.5°C and 4.5°C. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) said it was likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5 °C with a best estimate of about 3 °C.

IOW, there has been a lowering of the "most likely range" by 0.5 °C, going from 2°C to 1.5°C. Not insignificant, and something to be happy about, but almost no climate scientists are suggesting this signifies some major shift in the overall understanding. What it does illustrate rather well is that science is an evolving and self-correcting process. As more and better data becomes available, scientists improve our understanding of the phenomena.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fryewe View Post
Break, break...reports I have read state that westerly trade winds in the Pacific are enhanced above the average, and in fact are responsible for the majority of the sea level rise in the Western Pacific.
Yes, apparently this effect is due to (wait for it) Global Warming . I posted references to this in the fourth response on this thread:

For example, according to recent research there has apparently been, "An unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds since the late 1990s." According to the paper Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming, which is summarized in more laymans terms here:

"New research has found rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean, likely caused by global warming, has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds. Currently the winds are at a level never before seen on observed records, which extend back to the 1860s.

The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of global average surface temperatures since 2001."
__________________
Why go fast, when you can go slow.
BLOG: www.helplink.com/CLAFC
Mike OReilly is online now  
Old 29-03-2015, 16:36   #163
Registered User
 
Gadagirl's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Virginia
Posts: 641
Send a message via Skype™ to Gadagirl
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by fryewe View Post
Nice rant, gada...incoherent, but nice.

Scattergun approach sometimes hits the target with at least one pellet, but in this case, it didn't draw a feather. It helps to be able to see the target and point at it.

Enthusiasm is a great trait, but absent understanding, it's all heat and no light.

Youre not letting Sunday afternoon rum toddies do the talking for you...are you?
Not at all imbibing. Just stating that you do not have to believe in "Global Warming" or "Climate change", but it's a fact that pollution has ill effects on mankind and other life on this planet. Sorry people like you can not understand that
__________________
Life will give you whatever experience is most helpful for the evolution of your consciousness. - Eckhart Tolle
Gadagirl is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 16:43   #164
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 570
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

A cogent and reasonable analysis of sensitivity is at this link...a bit long, but worth the read if truly interested in the science of the discussion...

Climate sensitivity: lopping off the fat tail | Climate Etc.
__________________
fryewe is offline  
Old 29-03-2015, 16:59   #165
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 570
Re: Are the Seas getting more Violent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadagirl View Post
Not at all imbibing. Just stating that you do not have to believe in "Global Warming" or "Climate change", but it's a fact that pollution has ill effects on mankind and other life on this planet. Sorry people like you can not understand that
Whoa...I agree. Pollution of the environment has significantly negative effects.

Pollution takes many forms. One of the worst, in my view, is the rampant spread of invasive plant, insect, and animal species. In my local area, for example, Fire ants, Cogon grass, Chinese privet, Chinaberry, Popcorn tree, Mimosa tree, armadillos, coyote...all deprive native plants and animals of habitat.

And I agree that pesticide and fertilizer runoff is a significant problem, as is silting of streams due to repeated clear cutting of large timber tracts.

But all of this has nothing to do with climate change, except perhaps insignificant albedo effects.

Thanks for the carnations...
__________________

__________________
fryewe is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
More People On More Boats More Often thekiwi Commercial Posts 0 11-06-2014 19:43
More than 500 Containers Lost in Heavy Seas Aussiesuede Off Topic Forum 24 23-02-2014 16:01
Violent crime in Bocas del Toro nukahiva Atlantic & the Caribbean 130 18-07-2012 08:02



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 10:09.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.