Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

No that's nuts. You wouldn't start using more energy unless your $100 budgetary limit had previously forced you to omit some necessary or desirable energy-consuming activities.

If someone had a $100 energy bill, and changing to LEDs reduced it to $80... they'd most likely apply that $20 elsewhere. Or even save it. They wouldn't just
get sloppy with energy use.

you really don't know much about human nature ( or more specifically wife and teenagers)

I used to spend 50 a week on a 2 pack a day smoking habit . I stopped smoking 20 years ago still have the same basic income but now I don't have the extra money to buy those smokes.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by GordMay

newhaul: Hey, How do you manage to stay cool all the time?
Lake-Effect: I don’t get into arguments with ignorant people. I just cut it short and say, “You’re right.”
newhaul: But that’s completely irrational and wrong!
Lake-Effect: You’re right.

Gord you seem to have not been paying attention much . It's the opposite of what you have it written here.

As to staying cool like that its easy . Just remember we are all ( well most of us ) are sailors and cruisers so anything that is not boat related is used as a welcome distraction from the boat fix me list.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by senormechanico

Bingo. More solar panels on the boat led to more desalinator use which led to more inverter use to make hot water for more hot showers which led to happy wife which led to well, fill in the blank.

you said it all there happy wife happy life.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Gord you seem to have not been paying attention much . It's the opposite of what you have it written here...

You're right.
My comments were more of a recommendation, than an observation.

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Actually, it’s a well known phenomena, or paradox as it is sometimes referred to. The Jevons paradox. This is defined as the tendency for increased efficiency, and/or decreased cost of a resource to lead to MORE usage, not less.

It’s been fairly well studied, and found to be valid in many cases, but not universally true. Here’s a few references of phenomena, and some of the complexity.

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...s'_paradox

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

https://simplicable.com/new/jevons-paradox

While I have mixed feelings about increased consumption, it is a fact of life as you pointed out. We just need to look at the boat shows to see this. Even I am marginally caught up in this. Years ago I would have looked to vents to bring more air into my boat. Today, I am excited that due to the extra power I can now use, I have several Caframo fans. Sure they only use 1/3 of an amp on low, but now I have three whereas before I had none.

Go to any boat show and look what is now standard equipment. Years ago this extra equipment would have been considered luxuries for the well to do. Today they are standard.

It's just a fact of life. Remember, we are talking about SHTF scenarios. Most of the people posting here will have a more luxurious existence trying to survive than those decades ago. At least initially. Depending upon the duration of the SHTF scenario, that luxury may be degraded over time.

[Buzzman]

In any future SHTF scenario, the person with the hand-operated coffee grinder (and a sack full of beans) will be king....


Which means I'm f***ed, because I drink tea......

Sigh.

Back to reality. I live on the mid-north coast of NSW, Australia, which is currently dealing with 97 separate forest fire emergencies. We have lost over 120 homes; there is a continuous pall of brown/grey smoke hanging over the entire coast from Sydney north to Brisbane (1000km); evacuation centres have been set up in every town to assist those made homeless by the loss of their home to the fires; the supermarket shelves are empty of fresh produce and bread, as this is trucked in and the trucks can't get through due to road closures caused by fires.....

But we're surviving, and people are pulling together to help each other out. As the roads re-open, so supplies will eventually flow. But it's interesting that our 'just in time' process has been shown to be deficient within 24-hours....

I took a call this morning (my number is online as a contact for a social organisation in town) from a wheel-chair-bound women who lives 200km away who had heard that friends of hers upriver had lost their home and who wanted to loan them a caravan for temporary accommodation, but was having trouble contacting them. Obviously, they can no longer answer their home phone! I took a note containing her number and the message down the road to the Evac Centre and handed it to the authorities monitoring the affected.

Hope it works out for them.....

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by Buzzman

Back to reality........
But it's interesting that our 'just in time' process has been shown to be deficient within 24-hours....

First, I wish everyone well and hope things are brought under control soon,

It is interesting and not surprising how plans often fall apart soon. Just in time supply and supply of emergency services usually don't work as planned when it hits the fan.


While it is important to work with the local agencies and governments to prepare as much as possible, when it hits the fan, often it is only you who can take care of yourself for some time.

[wingssail]

Originally Posted by Buzzman

In any future SHTF scenario, the person with the hand-operated coffee grinder (and a sack full of beans) will be king....


Which means I'm f***ed, because I drink tea......

Sigh.

Back to reality. I live on the mid-north coast of NSW, Australia, which is currently dealing with 97 separate forest fire emergencies. We have lost over 120 homes; there is a continuous pall of brown/grey smoke hanging over the entire coast from Sydney north to Brisbane (1000km); evacuation centres have been set up in every town to assist those made homeless by the loss of their home to the fires; the supermarket shelves are empty of fresh produce and bread, as this is trucked in and the trucks can't get through due to road closures caused by fires.....

But we're surviving, and people are pulling together to help each other out. As the roads re-open, so supplies will eventually flow. But it's interesting that our 'just in time' process has been shown to be deficient within 24-hours....

I took a call this morning (my number is online as a contact for a social organisation in town) from a wheel-chair-bound women who lives 200km away who had heard that friends of hers upriver had lost their home and who wanted to loan them a caravan for temporary accommodation, but was having trouble contacting them. Obviously, they can no longer answer their home phone! I took a note containing her number and the message down the road to the Evac Centre and handed it to the authorities monitoring the affected.

Hope it works out for them.....

But maybe there is an opportunity for sail based cargo (on your boat) from Adelaide or Melborne or NZ or Townsville or New Cal to Sydney

[Buzzman]

Nah. This is only a "localised SHTF" scenario. Sydney itself is not yet affected, the wharves are open, stuff keeps on arriving....

The mechnisms haven't collapsed, simply been temporarily suspended.

Yesterday there was no bread in the large grocery stores due to road closures preventing delivery trucks getting here from Sydney.

Curiously, the corner store had plenty of bread, as it is supplied by a local (in town) bakery.

BUT....and this is MOST important....my local coffee shop still had milk, coffee and electricity.

So all is well....

For those that drink coffee....

Thankfully, I'm like one of those preppers in regard to tea. I have a six month supply in the cupboard. And a butane stove and spare canisters. And a water tank. And a few weeks worth of UHT milk in tetra-packs in the pantry.

Dunno what I'm gonna eat when the cat food runs out (got six 2.5kg bags of that)

[wingssail]

Originally Posted by Buzzman

Nah. This is only a "localised SHTF" scenario. Sydney itself is not yet affected, the wharves are open, stuff keeps on arriving....

The mechnisms haven't collapsed, simply been temporarily suspended.

Yesterday there was no bread in the large grocery stores due to road closures preventing delivery trucks getting here from Sydney.

Curiously, the corner store had plenty of bread, as it is supplied by a local (in town) bakery.

BUT....and this is MOST important....my local coffee shop still had milk, coffee and electricity.

So all is well....

For those that drink coffee....

Thankfully, I'm like one of those preppers in regard to tea. I have a six month supply in the cupboard. And a butane stove and spare canisters. And a water tank. And a few weeks worth of UHT milk in tetra-packs in the pantry.

Dunno what I'm gonna eat when the cat food runs out (got six 2.5kg bags of that)

Eat the cat

[Buzzman]

LOL... I'm eating the cat food because the cat no longer needs it..!! BURP!

[jmorrison146]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Agreed. I bet if we looked at levels of what researchers generally call “social capital” we might find interesting correlations between how various peoples react to SHTF scenarios.



Here’s one site with a treasure trove of data:



https://ourworldindata.org/trust

Very interesting data - thanks for sharing. I prefer graphics to data and this organization does a great job of it.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by jmorrison146

Very interesting data - thanks for sharing. I prefer graphics to data and this organization does a great job of it.

Yeah … hours of fun looking at various dataset visualizations. Pretty powerful way to present boring data .

Given our discussion about urban areas being danger zones for many SHTF scenarios, it’s interesting to look at the data on the rapid urbanization of the world:



https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Given our discussion about urban areas being danger zones for many SHTF scenarios, it’s interesting to look at the data on the rapid urbanization of the world:

Population centers are sort of a prerequisite for SHTF scenarios...otherwise cataclysmic events are just localized to a few people who had a very bad day.
Otherwise it's not prudent to put all of one's eggs in one basket, and if you're a farmer you probably don't like your cattle to collect under the only tree in a pasture during an electric storm.

[Auspicious]

Originally Posted by Buzzman

Yesterday there was no bread in the large grocery stores due to road closures preventing delivery trucks getting here from Sydney.

Curiously, the corner store had plenty of bread, as it is supplied by a local (in town) bakery.

I may have missed a previous post on this point but it is worth noting that many things with limited shelf life, such as bread, are based on ingredients that last a long time.

For this reason I'm a fan of older cookbooks like Joy of Cooking 5th Edition before refrigeration was ubiquitous. The Settlement Cookbook. Early editions of Good Housekeeping (the three ring binder ones).