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Old 10-11-2019, 09:07   #436
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

I think you missed a big one in the SHTF scenario list. That would be a global financial system melt down. Like what supposedly went on 2008/2009. According to both Bush and Obama we were on the verge of the international markets locking up.

If that were to happen, and it’s really only a matter of trust that it does not, things could get dicey quickly. The immediate impacts could result in great civil distress across the world. I think this is the greatest probability event.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:12   #437
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
.

I am in favour of nuclear, and I'm the conformiest of the green conformers, right?


Maybe you could help yank the subsidies away from fossil fuels and put'em behind nuclear.
Ok firstly you are not the greenest of the greenies . You are more of a centrist in that respect . The true greenies would attack you because of your ( IMO correct ) opinion on nuclear .

Want to pull the subsidies from fossil fuels I'm all for that but you should also pull the subsidies and financial incentives from renewables as well
https://www.insidesources.com/us-sti...rly-7-billion/

just think of what that could do to advance the implementation of SMR technologies.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:15   #438
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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That really doesn't make any sense at all. How does simply changing or developing new energy sources make one use more energy??

Use of energy is dictated by need and price. Supply and demand. Period.
if there is more of it available people will invariably tend to use more .
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:16   #439
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
That really doesn't make any sense at all. How does simply changing or developing new energy sources make one use more energy??

Use of energy is dictated by need and price. Supply and demand. Period.
More supply, less price, more usage. Already the oil companies are complaining of a glut. You see it reflected in auto sales, SUV and pickup sales increase. But also bigger less well insulated houses. Driving more. Less incentive for mass transit. More air travel, less telecommuting.

Why not a bill that says the USA will reduce total energy use 2% per year for the next 20 years?

Every politician talks about how the GND, or their version thereof, will INCREASE jobs, INCREASE manufacturing, INCREASE the economy.

No, we need to go on a diet.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:16   #440
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by hpeer View Post
I think you missed a big one in the SHTF scenario list. That would be a global financial system melt down. Like what supposedly went on 2008/2009. According to both Bush and Obama we were on the verge of the international markets locking up.

If that were to happen, and it’s really only a matter of trust that it does not, things could get dicey quickly. The immediate impacts could result in great civil distress across the world. I think this is the greatest probability event.
This is an excellent point. It is sort of a SHTF in slow motion where some areas would not really be dramatically affected but other areas would be greatly affected. During the thirties many people migrated looking for better opportunities. This would be something similar but with less urgency than something like a long term power outage or a tsunami.

Due to the slower unfolding of the scenario, one would probably have more time to decide upon a course of action. There would also be a mix of opportunities and losses. For example, while one might lose a home, one would also have opportunities to buy things at a discount. Barter might also become an option that is not now available.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:28   #441
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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if there is more of it available people will invariably tend to use more .
"Hey, we have more generating capacity. I'm gonna switch back to incandescent lightbulbs and leave'em on all night"

Clearly not true. Only price or need would make you use more. Cheap gas makes it affordable to drive more "car" than you really need.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:29   #442
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
if there is more of it available people will invariably tend to use more .

Bingo. More solar panels on the boat led to more desalinator use which led to more inverter use to make hot water for more hot showers which led to happy wife which led to well, fill in the blank.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:32   #443
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by ArmyDaveNY View Post
This is an excellent point. It is sort of a SHTF in slow motion where some areas would not really be dramatically affected but other areas would be greatly affected. During the thirties many people migrated looking for better opportunities. This would be something similar but with less urgency than something like a long term power outage or a tsunami.

Due to the slower unfolding of the scenario, one would probably have more time to decide upon a course of action. There would also be a mix of opportunities and losses. For example, while one might lose a home, one would also have opportunities to buy things at a discount. Barter might also become an option that is not now available.
I would hope we've built a bit more resilience into the financial system since the 1930s. The 2008 crisis, bad as it was, was not as painful as the 30s.... so maybe that's the case.

A global financial meltdown would be exactly that; there would be no sailing away from it.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:34   #444
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by senormechanico View Post
Bingo. More solar panels on the boat led to more desalinator use which led to more inverter use to make hot water for more hot showers which led to happy wife which led to well, fill in the blank.
Solar panels gave you cheaper energy on the boat. No more running the engine for hours, or a long expensive extension cord.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:08   #445
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by hpeer View Post
More supply, less price, more usage.
Lemme stop you right there. Renewables have not lowered energy prices. The opposite, if you listen to the whiners who complain about the (at one time) higher cost of renewables, and the government incentives given to develop alternatives.
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Already the oil companies are complaining of a glut. You see it reflected in auto sales, SUV and pickup sales increase. But also bigger less well insulated houses. Driving more. Less incentive for mass transit. More air travel, less telecommuting.
Yes, indeed. Between US exploration and OPEC fiddling, the price of oil is currently low, which is a tremendous brake on the changes we need to make. I'll quibble with new houses being less well-insulated, but yes, bigger is the trend in some markets.

But this has nothing to do with renewables.
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Why not a bill that says the USA will reduce total energy use 2% per year for the next 20 years?
Why not, indeed. Best of luck with that.

Quote:
Every politician talks about how the GND, or their version thereof, will INCREASE jobs, INCREASE manufacturing, INCREASE the economy.

No, we need to go on a diet.
Well, we are still in a capitalist world, and people will still need jobs. A cornerstone of most GND proposals is to have sustainable, ecologically responsible industry... not just "more". We have to use the tools we have, til we eliminate all money, like in Star Trek.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:08   #446
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
"Hey, we have more generating capacity. I'm gonna switch back to incandescent lightbulbs and leave'em on all night"

Clearly not true. Only price or need would make you use more. Cheap gas makes it affordable to drive more "car" than you really need.
the opposite .
Think about it this way .
You have the 100 bucks to pay the power bill you change to all led bulbs so you save power which would cause you to spend less invariably most people will use more to spend the same amount each month.
Its human nature .
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:22   #447
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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the opposite .
Think about it this way .
You have the 100 bucks to pay the power bill you change to all led bulbs so you save power which would cause you to spend less invariably most people will use more to spend the same amount each month.
Its human nature .
No that's nuts. You wouldn't start using more energy unless your $100 budgetary limit had previously forced you to omit some necessary or desirable energy-consuming activities.

If someone had a $100 energy bill, and changing to LEDs reduced it to $80... they'd most likely apply that $20 elsewhere. Or even save it. They wouldn't just
get sloppy with energy use.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:49   #448
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

newhaul: Hey, How do you manage to stay cool all the time?
Lake-Effect: I don’t get into arguments with ignorant people. I just cut it short and say, “You’re right.”
newhaul: But that’s completely irrational and wrong!
Lake-Effect: You’re right.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:54   #449
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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newhaul: Hey, How do you manage to stay cool all the time?
Lake-Effect: I don’t get into arguments with ignorant people. I just cut it short and say, “You’re right.”
newhaul: But that’s completely irrational and wrong!
Lake-Effect: You’re right.


Ouch.

I was just procrastinating about going out to rake leaves.

grumble grumble... can't have ANY fun

-SLAM-
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:59   #450
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

Actually, itís a well known phenomena, or paradox as it is sometimes referred to. The Jevons paradox. This is defined as the tendency for increased efficiency, and/or decreased cost of a resource to lead to MORE usage, not less.

Itís been fairly well studied, and found to be valid in many cases, but not universally true. Hereís a few references of phenomena, and some of the complexity.

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...s'_paradox

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

https://simplicable.com/new/jevons-paradox
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