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Old 02-11-2019, 06:37   #211
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

I agree … rapid climate change is not a SHTF scenario. But it exacerbates, and in some cases is a foundational cause, of many SHTF humanity-oriented scenarios. From economic crashes to mass migration, rapid climate change is already impacting our world.

That’s the real problem with the whole climate change challenge ;it’s not the natural world that is the direct challenge. It is the impact on our global civilization — some of which is rather delicate (as we’ve been discussing).
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Old 02-11-2019, 06:55   #212
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by Mike OReilly View Post
I agree … rapid climate change is not a SHTF scenario. But it exacerbates, and in some cases is a foundational cause, of many SHTF humanity-oriented scenarios. From economic crashes to mass migration, rapid climate change is already impacting our world.

That’s the real problem with the whole climate change challenge ;it’s not the natural world that is the direct challenge. It is the impact on our global civilization — some of which is rather delicate (as we’ve been discussing).
mike after all this time you still think that MMGW is the cause or a factor in all of this ?

MMGW is the boogeyman under the bed or in the kids closet that is blamed for everything .
It gives people something to blame besides the failed governmental policies all across Europe that are pushing us all closer to a global civil war.
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Old 02-11-2019, 07:02   #213
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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WWIII is Marxism pushing back against the collapsing welfare state and socialism. The neocons might foolishly get us into a war, but the real war is what is happening across the world, just like 1848 with multiple Marxist revolutions underway. There will be blood in the streets as the state runs out of money. HK, Barcelona, Santiago, Paris, etc aren't backwaters, but first world cities.
except Marxism ( communism) and socialism are in the end the same .
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Old 02-11-2019, 07:09   #214
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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mike after all this time you still think that MMGW is the cause or a factor in all of this ?

MMGW is the boogeyman under the bed or in the kids closet that is blamed for everything .
It gives people something to blame besides the failed governmental policies all across Europe that are pushing us all closer to a global civil war.
Sorry buddy, but on this we fundamentally disagree. I listen to the consensus from actual scientists and researchers, not the babblers and outliers. There is no scientific controversy — there is a contrived political one.

The science is quite clear; the climate is changing rapidly and human civilization is a significant cause. It is not a proximate cause of most SHTF scenarios, but it does exacerbate or help cause many of the more human-based ones.
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Old 02-11-2019, 08:15   #215
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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except Marxism ( communism) and socialism are in the end the same .

I was being polite.


We watched it happen in VE, where the capitalist govt was overthrown and the Marxists took over. It now appears that the US will not attempt to save the country - to the get oil, as they have done in Syria (oil for war). Which has given the pandas and Russia the green light to take over.
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Old 02-11-2019, 08:24   #216
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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I was being polite.


We watched it happen in VE, where the capitalist govt was overthrown and the Marxists took over. It now appears that the US will not attempt to save the country - to the get oil, as they have done in Syria (oil for war). Which has given the pandas and Russia the green light to take over.
there is one little problem with your statements here .

The United. States is a net exporter of petroleum products.

Our purpose wrt the Syrian Kurdish oil reserves . Is to stop the Turks and Soviets ( as well as others) from taking it from them by force
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Old 02-11-2019, 08:47   #217
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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there is one little problem with your statements here .

The United. States is a net exporter of petroleum products.

Our purpose wrt the Syrian Kurdish oil reserves . Is to stop the Turks and Soviets ( as well as others) from taking it from them by force
Yer that's it, we're the good guys, we always are...lol. it's always abit more complicated than good and bad guys.

Theres also quite abit more to the shaol industry than just being a net exporter, look at debt and profit, the picture isnt quite as rosy as one liners have us believe.

This guy has a very good understanding of the industry https://www.artberman.com/
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Old 02-11-2019, 08:52   #218
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Sorry buddy, but on this we fundamentally disagree. I listen to the consensus from actual scientists and researchers, not the babblers and outliers. There is no scientific controversy — there is a contrived political one.

The science is quite clear; the climate is changing rapidly and human civilization is a significant cause. It is not a proximate cause of most SHTF scenarios, but it does exacerbate or help cause many of the more human-based ones.

Can't we PLEASE not turn this into another global warming thread???



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Old 02-11-2019, 08:58   #219
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Can't we PLEASE not turn this into another global warming thread???
Not trying to, but when someone addresses a direct question to me, I usually try and answer.
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Old 02-11-2019, 08:59   #220
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by Mike OReilly View Post
Sorry buddy, but on this we fundamentally disagree. I listen to the consensus from actual scientists and researchers, not the babblers and outliers. There is no scientific controversy — there is a contrived political one.

The science is quite clear; the climate is changing rapidly and human civilization is a significant cause. It is not a proximate cause of most SHTF scenarios, but it does exacerbate or help cause many of the more human-based ones.

we have been over this many times on many CC threads of which this is not one of them .

MMGW tie to this SHTF thread is that the ptb have stated it has had no significant effect one way or the other on any SHTF based situation. ( tropical cyclones what ever they are called regionally ) it has been proven that solar activity does have an effect .
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Old 02-11-2019, 09:15   #221
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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we have been over this many times on many CC threads of which this is not one of them .

MMGW tie to this SHTF thread is that the ptb have stated it has had no significant effect one way or the other on any SHTF based situation. ( tropical cyclones what ever they are called regionally ) it has been proven that solar activity does have an effect .
I don’t know what “ptb” stands for — I generally don’t partake in the various climate change threads. I do know that climate change is contributing to various SHTF scenarios. From rising sea levels to desertification and wildfires, to shifting species ranges and diseases, climate change exacerbates many serious challenges the global human population faces.
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Old 02-11-2019, 09:23   #222
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

FWIW my personal opinions about SHTF scenarios:

IF YOU LIVE IN A CITY (We lived in CC Philadelphia)
The most proximate danger is social unrest, e.g. riots. Cause by who knows what. We lived in a very nice neighborhood but still within a mile of a “kill” zone. Cities are getting worse quite rapidly. My old neighborhood is still developing, something I didn’t think possible. Human and car density continues to rise. It has become a hostile place on a good day. No place to park or pee. Homelessness and opioid abuse are apparently rampant. Most anything could set off that spark.

We had the Delaware River and a boat in the river I could access by dingy. The boat remained field and stocked 365. A hard freeze would have been a problem but that’s the least likely time for a riot. Travel by car is difficult normally, any little disruption and it becomes instantly impossible.

My plan was to go to the marina and live on the boat. If that got untenable then cast off and float in the bay until either things cooled down or it made sense to go elsewhere. Unlikely the riots would extend throughout the Chesapeake or NC sounds.

IF YOU LIVE IN A SUBURB
The most likely proximate cause will be a global financial collapse which will greatly disturb food and fuel distribution. This is supposedly what we faced in 2008/2009 and things have not changed substantially. Resources will most likely be diverted into the large population masses in order to quiet those masses that could bring the governments down. The outlying areas may not be well supplied and you won’t really want to trek to the city.

Here the boat can buy you some time if you keep it well stocked. You would want to get to it before it gets looted. Because this crisis is less seasonal it might be in dead winter, so you may want to do a precautionary launch. Then the question becomes where to go? Which will depend upon where you live, the season and how widespread the shortages are. All unknowns. If fuel is cut off then you may want to go South for the winter. If NE ports are not working but Gulf Ports are you may want to go there. If you are in Northern Germany in the winter you may want to make your way to the Med.

The point is no one will know how the story will unfold and a boat is only a partial solution that can take you from a bad place to a less bad place.

The other aSHTF scenarios are unlikely, pretty far in the future, or generally unsurvivable. Not sufficiently predictable to be actionable.

However, if you really need a reason to justify your boat, then go for it. Enjoy life.
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Old 02-11-2019, 09:26   #223
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by Mike OReilly View Post
I agree … rapid climate change is not a SHTF scenario. But it exacerbates, and in some cases is a foundational cause, of many SHTF humanity-oriented scenarios. From economic crashes to mass migration, rapid climate change is already impacting our world.

That’s the real problem with the whole climate change challenge ;it’s not the natural world that is the direct challenge. It is the impact on our global civilization — some of which is rather delicate (as we’ve been discussing).
Quite right Mike. I would only add that MMGW is ONE of the major problems we face. Others include fossil water depletion, fossil fuel depletion, soil depletion. Of course these all lead to increase social instability through famine, mass migration, resource conflicts, etc. it all feeds upon one another with each one adding it’s share.
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Old 02-11-2019, 09:40   #224
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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However, if you really need a reason to justify your boat, then go for it. Enjoy life.
the best reason for me personally is that I am in better physical condition after a couple weeks of hard sailing than I am after a couple weeks at anchor.
My boat is my gym.
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Old 02-11-2019, 09:42   #225
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

If this goes down the route of a global warming thread........ I will pull the plug so fast..

Just because someone asks a question, it is not mandatory to ANSWER it if it contributes to thread disposal.

jes sayin'
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