Budget Be Damned

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Every so often we have those that post, I’ll get me a couple hundred thousand and invest wisely, earn xx% return, and then I’m set, I can Retire in my 30’s.

Age makes a huge difference when considering the impact of SS.

SB only being a couple years out from SS, will have a much easier time riding out a downturn until SS kicks in and could probably live comfortably on just the $3k SS if he had to.

Someone in their 30's has to give much more consideration to market volatility and making the nest egg last as they have 30yr before they can consider collecting SS. Also they likely have a smaller SS to look forward to as they likely have a working career of only around 20yr with many of those years, low earning high school and college years. They average your top 35yrs, so lots of zeros get averaged in.

[wtmf]

I did a lot of rounding off so 11000 devided by 32 months andIget just under $345 per month. now if I didn't do anything wrong what is the problem?

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by Training Wheels

Yeah, we had beach cats too. Get over it.

I am over it which is what that last email was about, but we did do lots of sailing/racing on all four of them ( 2 Nacras and 2 Hobie Cats) over a 15 year period starting in the early 90's including five 100 mile Round the Island Races and lots of 30 plus milers plus tons of buoy racing in 5 states

Now it's all about cruising locally on my Good Old Full Keel Bristol 27 which I just started refitting after owning and sailing it for 8 years

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by GILow

Thanks for this post and your others on budgets, they've been a great read.

I wish there were someone posting similar data for Australian based cruising, where I suspect the numbers would be different. In which direction, I don't know, but they'd be different.

I bet if you look at my monthly expensive spreadsheet and convert it to your $$ and go to a location price cost index you could get a pretty close number

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Strong overvalued market not supported by solid fundamentals but instead mispriced money, but hey, it could go on forever, seems the rules have changed..... bring on more QE and start dropping interest rates (again)...... what could possibly go wrong?

My earlier post was that one shouldn't plan too optimistically on the stock market, but I disagree that the current market is overvalued.

If you look at fundamentals today, the current values are supported. Inflation is low, unemployment is low, profits are good, consumer sentiment is good.

The risk is more that something could change, like the government deciding that college should be free, or that all student debt should be forgiven, or that everyone should get government-subsidized health care. You can certainly argue for those things, but they'd have to be paid for somewhere (read: taxes), and that could affect market optimism and stock values.

[a64pilot]

No, the Stock Market is way over inflated, way beyond logic.
I thought it would go bust when the Baby Boomers quit funding it through their Retirement plans, and began to draw from them, but that didn’t happen.
The Stock Market is right where house prices used to be, and the dot com bubble. Both were so illogically priced that even I knew it couldn’t last and I’m no financial wizard.

My guess is the Market is being and has been manipulated for a long time, by whom I don’t know, several maybe?

I’m now heavily invested in the Market for the first time in my life, and it worries me, but I didn’t see much of an option.
However I also have the Military Retirement, and upcoming SS, so with three sources, I ought to be OK.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

No, the Stock Market is way over inflated, way beyond logic.
I thought it would go bust when the Baby Boomers quit funding it through their Retirement plans, and began to draw from them, but that didn’t happen.
The Stock Market is right where house prices used to be, and the dot com bubble. Both were so illogically priced that even I knew it couldn’t last and I’m no financial wizard.

My guess is the Market is being and has been manipulated for a long time, by whom I don’t know, several maybe?

I’m now heavily invested in the Market for the first time in my life, and it worries me, but I didn’t see much of an option.
However I also have the Military Retirement, and upcoming SS, so with three sources, I ought to be OK.

There lies the problem "where else do you put your money?"I think about this daily and I truly don't know. Money is mispriced, this causes massive distortions.

I truly wish I could have the faith that some do here, but if you dig and look at whats underpinning the markets it's hard to have faith.

I have a mate that owns a large fund managing 100's of millions, he now has a large position in cash purely based on what he perceives to be monetary experiment flaunt with danger. He's very wealthy, good reputation and been doing this for many years, he can't see value anywhere,speculation yes but no value.

For the first time ever I'm going financially backwards, purely because I'm sitting on the side lines not knowing the best direction to take.

The problem is the markets have the potential to stay insane longer than I can stay solvent...... hopefully not!

When markets are driven by a "herd mentality" they can change quickly.

Why has the Fed put a holt to interest rate rises? Why is trump asking them to lower interest rates? Why have they only been able to raise interest rates 2.5% in ten years?

[chuckr]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Fun and ........... the BOAT

Your boat is only 12 years old and mine is 18. I didn’t any “refit” when preparing to cruise. We just left with boat close to as brought used 6 years prior.

NO my boat is 16 years old and kept in excellent condition and used have been used very hard for the 12 years we have been out.

so what is your excuse??

[chuckr]

Originally Posted by kmacdonald

Look at it on the bright side, if you are left with only SS you will have to cruise to the South Pacific where you can live like a king on SS.

We are living very nicely on SS in the Med and have for the past 5+ years

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by chuckr

We are living very nicely on SS in the Med and have for the past 5+ years

Hi Chuck, I know you've posted your annual figures before but I can't recall them.

What has it cost you per year, all included to live the cruising life style in the Med? No break down needed.

[conachair]

Originally Posted by chuckr

We are living very nicely on SS in the Med and have for the past 5+ years

Hard to think how it would be even possible to spend some of the monthly grocery/eating out figures mentioned on a few threads in ATlantic Spain/Portugal

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by chuckr

so what is your excuse??

don't know what you are talking about, I haven't made any excuses

you wanted to know what I have spent MY money on and I told you, I don't give excuses for what I spend I just provide a breakdown of what it was

my wife thinks I must like pain for doing these budget threads, she may be right and that I do it to maintain some personal interaction battles for a real life element

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

No, the Stock Market is way over inflated, way beyond logic.
I thought it would go bust when the Baby Boomers quit funding it through their Retirement plans, and began to draw from them, but that didn’t happen.
The Stock Market is right where house prices used to be, and the dot com bubble. Both were so illogically priced that even I knew it couldn’t last and I’m no financial wizard.

My guess is the Market is being and has been manipulated for a long time, by whom I don’t know, several maybe?

I’m now heavily invested in the Market for the first time in my life, and it worries me, but I didn’t see much of an option.
However I also have the Military Retirement, and upcoming SS, so with three sources, I ought to be OK.

What are you basing your analysis on? Nothing?

The stock market is about investing. It's about higher profits caused by lower taxes. It's about earnings. It's about the economy. It's about optimism for the future. By all of these measures, the market isn't overpriced. It's absolutely not where the housing market was in 2005.

Most people should be investing in markets based on age and risk tolerance, not by their market perceptions. If you're nervous, it wouldn't hurt to take something off the table, but the better strategy is to go with a bigger picture long-term approach. The herd mentality is often wrong, but the herd does control the market, and December's drop is an indicator.

In your situation, you can afford some risk, as you'll be fine regardless based on your diverse and independent income streams.

[a64pilot]

In my opinion Stocks value is based solely on the expectation of them being worth more in the future.
The value is not based on the solvency of the company, health of the economy etc.
Stocks value used to be based on the earnings of the company that sold the stock, usually dividends.
However that changed in the 1920’s I guess, and while I am no financial wizard, just from a glance there seem to be correlations, the theory of “you can’t lose money, doesn’t matter what it’s worth, your going to sell it for more than you paid”

I heard that exact quote from friends telling me to buy .com stocks, and I needed to buy a house.
I knew the .com thing was sure to be a bust when realestate.com was valued higher than Delta Airlines, and what real property did real estate .com have?

Any way it’s my opinion the Market is inflated, but it’s just an opinion is all.
Why is it over inflated? Maybe because most are convinced it doesn’t matter what you pay, your going to sell it for more.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Any way it’s my opinion the Market is inflated, but it’s just an opinion is all.
Why is it over inflated? Maybe because most are convinced it doesn’t matter what you pay, your going to sell it for more.

Oddly, there's some truth to that if your time horizon is long enough. But it is better to look at the fundamentals of any financial instrument you own or are purchasing.

There are probably better ways to look at investing, like diversification, risk tolerance, and age, because the older you are, the less flexibility you're going to have with time frame.