Northwest Passage - 2016

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

Why does the baseline keep changing and who changes it? Does anyone know? Earth's warming is much more clearly stated when the 1970 baseline is used.

The WMO establishes the baseline from which anomalies are derived.

WMO defines climatological standard normals as "averages of climatological data computed for the following consecutive periods of 30 years: January 1, 1901 to December 31, 1930, January 1, 1931 to December 31, 1960, etc." (WMO, 1984).The latest global standard normals period is 1961-1990. The next standard normals periode is January 1, 1991 – December 1, 2020.

Data | WMO

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

To jimbunyard: you forced me to go to the source of the anomaly figure. They have the same figure rotated to view down the pole for a way better perspective. I then inscribed the arctic circle on the figure.

You are correct. Only vestiges of the cooling anomaly are inside the Arctic. Unfortunately, I left the figure at home but could post it later if you want me to.

The bigger picture is however the below normal area is about the same size and magnitude as the above normal area thus negating much of a net increase in the northern hemisphere temperature on that day.

Well, glad we got that worked out.

It's not important to know the actual figure, it appears that the cold area in Siberia and Mongolia was somewhat equal to the area in the Arctic Ocean. Conditions have changed, as they do with the weather.

More of a problem is the insinuation that one cold or warm area somehow cancels out the other; this can at best be described as cartoonish or overly simplistic.

Simply put, what is more important to remember is that these 'anomaly maps' show a departure from the average temperature, not the actual temperature. What is important about that is what that means for the area in which it occurs.

While the '36 above average' in the Arctic is alarming (to some, me included), and the positive feedback loop effect of decreasing Artic sea ice that that will have is known and being demonstrated, the effects of '36 below average' further south are even more extreme.

That's because in the Arctic (I'm making these numbers up but you should get the idea) the temp can range from -70 to 50F; with a median of -10F a 36 degree upward excursion, to 26F, still lies within 'normal' range.

Meanwhile, further south, the range is less, say -40 to 50, with a median of 5F. So a 36 degree excursion down, to -31, still lies within a 'normal' range, but is substantially closer to an extreme (9 degrees versus 14).

So there is maybe more danger is to the ecosystem further south, with struggles to adapt to a too-quickly changing environment.

Obviously to get a more realistic grasp one would have to use monthly averages and real observations.

Make sense?


Unfortunately.....wrong.

I thought it made sense, until I looked at this graph:



Actually, the Arctic Ocean has the smallest range, from about -15 to -44. It seems the moderating effect of ocean temperature has an effect, even when covered with ice. Meanwhile, Yakustk has the largest range, from about -5 to about -60.

So, using the logic above, the situation is precisely reversed, with the Arctic Ocean far over the extreme high temperature norm and likely higher stressed, and central Siberia and northern Mongolia still over the extreme low temperature norm, but not as much, and likely commensurately less stressed.

As noted before, it's an extremely complex, global system.

[SailOar]

https://sites.google.com/site/arctis...in/home/piomas
(Does not include the most recent data, so projection may not be as accurate as it could be.)

[SailOar]

Annual Arctic Report Card | NOAA

Report Highlights

• The average surface air temperature for the year ending September 2016 is by far the highest since 1900, and new monthly record highs were recorded for January, February, October and November 2016.
• After only modest changes from 2013-2015, minimum sea ice extent at the end of summer 2016 tied with 2007 for the second lowest in the satellite record, which started in 1979.
• Spring snow cover extent in the North American Arctic was the lowest in the satellite record, which started in 1967.
• In 37 years of Greenland ice sheet observations, only one year had earlier onset of spring melting than 2016.
• The Arctic Ocean is especially prone to ocean acidification, due to water temperatures that are colder than those further south. The short Arctic food chain leaves Arctic marine ecosystems vulnerable to ocean acidification events.
• Thawing permafrost releases carbon into the atmosphere, whereas greening tundra absorbs atmospheric carbon. Overall, tundra is presently releasing net carbon into the atmosphere.
• Small Arctic mammals, such as shrews, and their parasites, serve as indicators for present and historical environmental variability. Newly acquired parasites indicate northward shifts of sub-Arctic species and increases in Arctic biodiversity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.decb9e408489

[jackdale]

Another sailboat that transited the NWP in 2016.

What It?s Like to Travel By Sailboat Through the Arctic | Motherboard

[SailOar]

NOAA challenged the global warming ‘pause.’ Now new research says the agency was right. | Washington Post

[sailnow2011]

Originally Posted by SailOar

NOAA challenged the global warming ‘pause.’ Now new research says the agency was right. | Washington Post

Thats what happens when you fire all the global warming skeptic scientists, you can say whatever you want. I am glad trump is in, and the pure is over. It will sound a lot different the next 8 years. There is no man made global warming, and there has not been any significant warming AT ALL.

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by sailnow2011

Thats what happens when you fire all the global warming skeptic scientists, you can say whatever you want. I am glad trump is in, and the pure is over. It will sound a lot different the next 8 years. There is no man made global warming, and there has not been any significant warming AT ALL.

Oh goodie...we've now got a new and improved moniker for deniers...Significance Experts...

[DeepFrz]

... OMG ...

[jdazey]

I have a report of one boat that started, but spent too much time in Greenland and is now wintering over on the McKenzie River. Even now it's not a sure thing.

Cheers,

[sailnow2011]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

Oh goodie...we've now got a new and improved moniker for deniers...Significance Experts...

That is fine, would rather be a person who denies a lie then one who blindly accepts a lie. Too many scientists saying the climate is doing natural climate variation and fluctuation. Based on the very very limited data we have prior to 1979, we should all be deniers until we have a lot more facts. 37 years of accurate climate data shows us that variability is the name of the game. We have had no significant warming or cooling in the past 37 years. That is a fact.

[DeepFrz]

... OMG ... again.

[captmikem]

I tried the NW passage in 97 (east to West), did not make it but had a good time exploring Baffin Island, Newfoundland and Greenland.

What is hard is you get in a field of ice and slowly wander through it hoping to head in the direction you want to go. This is not always easy and often there is no opening in the flow to get through, and then you have to wander back through the flow to get back to open water.

What you need is an aircraft, (or maybe a drone) above you to find the open areas. Not an easy task. Good thing is that It is daylight all the time.

Anyway, it was a bunch of fun, I love it up in the ice. Beautiful bays and anchorages on the NE coast of Newfoundland. Tremendous amount of wildlife, well worth the trip, and if you get through a great Adventure!

Michael

[mikereed100]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

... OMG ... again.

Well put!

[mikereed100]

Originally Posted by captmikem

What you need is an aircraft, (or maybe a drone) above you to find the open areas. Not an easy task. Good thing is that It is daylight all the time.

This is a great idea, especially with drones becoming cheaper and better all the time.

Anyway, it was a bunch of fun, I love it up in the ice. Beautiful bays and anchorages on the NE coast of Newfoundland. Tremendous amount of wildlife, well worth the trip, and if you get through a great Adventure!

We met a couple who lived on their boat in Cordova, AK who, in addition to Alaska, had sailed to Patagonia, Antarctica and Greenland. When I asked what their favorite place was they said "Labrador". High praise considering how spectacular the other places are!