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Old 23-04-2018, 22:16   #1
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This Year's 3rd Storm on its Way?

As many of you will know, the PHLs had its first tropical storm this year in FEBRUARY, the month during which tropical storms are considered LEAST likely to impact the Philippines. Luckily it dissipated in the face of strong NE winds before it made its landfall, clocking about 35 knot winds over our anchorage in Dapa, Siargao. That rare occurence seemed to set the tone for the season.

Then, the first SUPER TYPHOON of the year hit in MARCH, which marks another statistical anomaly. Wondering what folks make of all this.

Thankfully, that storm did not reach its full potential until recurving away form the Philippines. However, Siargao had a good five days of on/off rain and up to 21 knot gusts from that storm, which was hundreds of miles away.

At the moment, there is a circular pattern of winds forming off Western New Guinea. It has moved slightly NE over the last 24 hours, but, as yet shows no increase in its relatively light wind speeds. I have attached a Windytv.com screenshot of it here.

Anyone want know what the chances may be that it will turn into something worrisome? Of course, this system is very far away at the moment, but it is shaping up not far from where the first storm did, near Koror.

Any input would be appreciated.

G2L
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Old 23-04-2018, 22:57   #2
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Re: This Year's 3rd Storm on its Way?

ECMWF and GFS model show nothing deep developing over the next week or so.

It may be worth noting that the seasonal change is happening right now on the PNG South Coast. We are seeing the start of the South Easterlies and they are fairly well sustained for the 7-10 day forecasts.

Last week we were still getting the usual Nov-Apr S, SW and W winds here.
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Old 24-04-2018, 04:52   #3
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Re: This Year's 3rd Storm on its Way?

Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM View Post
ECMWF and GFS model show nothing deep developing over the next week or so.

It may be worth noting that the seasonal change is happening right now on the PNG South Coast. We are seeing the start of the South Easterlies and they are fairly well sustained for the 7-10 day forecasts.

Last week we were still getting the usual Nov-Apr S, SW and W winds here.
Yeah, looking out 7 days, Windytv shows the system dissipating, perhaps for the same reason that our first storm did - it hit strong NE monsoon winds up here.

To validate your point, we are beginning to see lots of daily fluctuation in wind direction, with all winds being relatively mild except in places where the predominately E winds wrap around islands and funnel through various channels.

Lets hope conditions progress according to the established norms.

Thanks for your post,

G2L
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