Fourth question: Can you avoid bad storms?

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by river251

If you can take all the time you want, and are not on a schedule for arrival, can you avoid storms?



I haven't yet sailed but am doing research, including here. It still seems that this is not a settled question.



I see and read often that modern forecasting can predict the weather 3 or 4 days ahead. Yet, there are stories of experienced operators getting caught in severe, damaging, and dangerous storms.



I understand some people must stick to a deadline, and proceed even if the weather is bad, for example John Kretschmer delivering a boat found himself in Force 13 and 11 storms with 30 foot waves. He says it is exhilarating. I want none of that. If I can't avoid storms, I'm not sure I want to traverse oceans.



So, my question is, if you can take all the time you want, can access the best weather data, and are not on a schedule for arrival, can you avoid storms?



Thanks for your thoughts.



Jim

Making passages at certain times of year for any given route can significantly reduce your odds of encountering severe weather.

To actually outrun bad weather you need a boat that can consistently sail 200nm/d. To do that you need a boat in the 60-65’ minimum range. It won’t keep you out of rough weather but it will likely keep you out of severe weather.

[mglonnro]

Originally Posted by S/V Adeline

Forecasting has gotten better, but they still get it wrong about as often as they get it right.

It would be nice to find real information about the current level of accuracy. It shouldn't be too hard to do either.

Here's something about relative accuracy, showing significant improvement being made. It's too bad they don't tell any absolute numbers.

https://www.predictwind.com/predictw...uation-report/

[Dockhead]

Someone should explain to the OP the difference between short term and long term weather events.

It's not the wind which is dangerous, it's the sea state. If you handle your boat properly, and assuming the boat is reasonably seaworthy, then you can handle any amount of wind without too much danger. The problem is when strong wind transfers the energy into the sea and creates a sea state which puts you at risk of getting broached, knocked-down or rolled.

Land-origin convective storms like thunderstorms are short term events and don't generally produce dangerous sea states. You can 50, 60 knot winds or even more, but they typically don't last more than 15 or 20 minutes, not long enough for the sea to become dangerous (unless you are in a shallow area or in an area where the wind is blowing against a current, but you learn how to avoid that). So the fact that t-storms are rather unpredictable is not a problem.

Same thing with squall lines ahead of weather fronts, offshore.

Dangerous weather comes from large frontal systems, large depressions, and these ARE predictable -- they don't come from nowhere. There is no reason other than a mistake to get caught in really dangerous weather, if you are no more than 2 or 3 days offshore.

It is otherwise if you are on a passage longer than decent weather prediction -- say more than 3 or 4 days -- and you are in latitudes and season where there is a significant risk of large frontal systems. So if you cross the Atlantic from W to E on the Northerly route, even in the best season, you will not fail to be caught in at least one of two significant gales. Or if you cross Biscay out of season, for example. An offshore sailor learns to deal with that; it's a necessary skill for an offshore sailor.

I haven't mentioned tropical rotating storms -- that's a different category of danger. But few sailors get caught at sea in these.

[belizesailor]

A schedule is the most dangerous thing to have aboard a boat. It is common for schedules to press people into making bad weather decisions. Many of the "got caught in severe weather" stories you hear start with a schedule.

Heavy weather sailing can indeed be "exhilirating"....I enjoyed it more when I was younger!

With no schedule and runs of no more than a few days, then you can almost certainly avoid "major storms", but not localized weather like squalls. You can reduce your odds of encountering squalls too with good forecasting (see CAPE Index and related subjects), but sooner or later one is gonna get you.

If you plan to "traverse oceans" as as stated then you will likely find yourself in severe weather eventually. Ocean crossings take weeks and current tech cant forecast out that far reliably. All you can do is pick your season and route then stay updated on the weather everyday....at least then you a very unlikely to be surprised by severe weather.

Example: I crewed on a crossing from NYC to Bermuda to the Azores last year. We were underway (actually under sail) for about a month. We never encountered any severe weather. The most we got was about 30 knots of wind and 6-8' seas. The conditions were usually so benign that we had sit down dinners in the cockpit most nights...and we only motorsailed for about 3 days total. Crossing dont get much better. This was accomplished with lots of planning and daily weather monitoring including the services of a pro weather router. However, a tropical disturbance did develop near Bermuda on our route. This was not forecast far in advance and we were close enough to Bermuda to duck in ahead of it, but had it formed into a hurricane, w slightly different timing, the story could have been much different.

In decades of sailing, Ive only been "caught" out by truly severe weather a handful of times.

[Stewie12]

Cruising guides such as Jimmy Cornells World Cruising Routes will give you guidance as to the best time of the year to cross oceans. There are cruising guides for the Caribbean and the Med etc. To avoid rough passages, wait for favourable weather.

[tarian]

If crossing oceans you go out of storm season and follow trade winds as far south or north that you are going , storms do not form in the meaning of a storm , or extremely rarely the most you will get is squalls and thunderstorms which can produce intensive waves and winds but generally pass through , were as a storm could be days .
There is a difference to a low front, squalls, etc and a deep low forming which gets a storm name

[sailing_gal]

I crossed the Atlantic, from Maryland to Spain, in 2016. We sat out an extra day waiting for more favorable weather in Cape May. The wx for the next several days was great. We were looking to get a typical favorable westerly wind and easterly current leaving the U.S. east coast in early June. Well, about 1 week out, a huge weather system formed in the North Atlantic with hurricane force winds. My anenometer topped out at 64 kts, but the wind was stronger than that. The storm was moving in the same direction we were, easterly. So, the decision was made to heave to and let the storm pass. Waves were huge. A passing freighter told use he clocked winds in excess of 70 kts. Once the storm passed, we were almost becalmed. The days when we had wind, it was from the east. So, between motoring (but conserving fuel) and having to tack our way to the Azores, we finally made it- it took 3 weeks from Cape May to Flores, in the Azores- should have been a 2 week trip. No damage, just an interesting trip.

So, what I am telling you is this- weather predictions are only so good for so many days. If you are crossing the ocean, you pick your best percentage for wx conditions and timing, and then you go. And whatever Mother Nature delivers, she delivers. You just have to be ready to deal with it.

[tarian]

Originally Posted by sailing_gal

I crossed the Atlantic, from Maryland to Spain, in 2016. We sat out an extra day waiting for more favorable weather in Cape May. The wx for the next several days was great. We were looking to get a typical favorable westerly wind and easterly current leaving the U.S. east coast in early June. Well, about 1 week out, a huge weather system formed in the North Atlantic with hurricane force winds. My anenometer topped out at 64 kts, but the wind was stronger than that. The storm was moving in the same direction we were, easterly. So, the decision was made to heave to and let the storm pass. Waves were huge. A passing freighter told use he clocked winds in excess of 70 kts. Once the storm passed, we were almost becalmed. The days when we had wind, it was from the east. So, between motoring (but conserving fuel) and having to tack our way to the Azores, we finally made it- it took 3 weeks from Cape May to Flores, in the Azores- should have been a 2 week trip. No damage, just an interesting trip.

So, what I am telling you is this- weather predictions are only so good for so many days. If you are crossing the ocean, you pick your best percentage for wx conditions and timing, and then you go. And whatever Mother Nature delivers, she delivers. You just have to be ready to deal with it.

Not unusual for storms to form in May in the north Atlantic and us not the best weather window going w to e may will always throw up storms which race across and hit us poor Scots, jeep whiz we even get snow in may sometimes .
In May and storms are not uncommon, keep an eye on the jet stream for early west to east crossings it will determine were the lows form and how high or low they hit. I.e N.scotland to icleand or the west to south west of france

[dick sargent]

Changing course a few degrees to maintain a steady reading on the barometer when offshore was my rule. Wonder if just dumb luck or good seamanship.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by tarian

Not unusual for storms to form in May in the north Atlantic and us not the best weather window going w to e may will always throw up storms which race across and hit us poor Scots, jeep whiz we even get snow in may sometimes .

In May and storms are not uncommon, keep an eye on the jet stream for early west to east crossings it will determine were the lows form and how high or low they hit. I.e N.scotland to icleand or the west to south west of france

Yeah we were trying to cross from NYC in May of 2018...systems w hurricane force winds would just not let up...they came roaring across 40N every few days. We finally said screw that and headed toward Bermuda. The plan was just to get a bit S and then cut across, but on this leg of the trip we learnd that a couple of the owner's friends who were crewing could not figure out the difference between crew and guest. Bermuda was the nearest airport and thus a handy place to disembark our "guests" and do some repairs before continuing on.

[mvmojo]

I've always felt like trans-oceanic passages were 95% boredom and 5% terror. The 5% terror can come in the form of un-fixable mechanical failures, collisions with objects, significant injury or illness, and/or significant weather events, just to name a few. But, weather is just one of the risks you face and maybe one of the easiest to deal with by exercising good judgement.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by sailing_gal

.... Well, about 1 week out, a huge weather system formed in the North Atlantic with hurricane force winds. My anenometer topped out at 64 kts, but the wind was stronger than that. The storm was moving in the same direction we were, easterly. So, the decision was made to heave to and let the storm pass. Waves were huge. A passing freighter told use he clocked winds in excess of 70 kts. Once the storm passed, we were almost becalmed. ...

Sailing from Tortola to Annapolis decades ago, got into sustained (days) heavy weather. When the worst rolled in I remember watching the anemoter display peg out at 64 knots, flash a few times, and go blank...followed shortly by pieces of it hitting the deck! [emoji44]

[joelhemington]

Originally Posted by river251

Thanks Stu.

Let's say it's a 10 day crossing across the Atlantic (I have no idea how long it takes to cross the Atlantic, but just for example).

When you start, you can see ahead for 3-4 days.

Every day, you again see ahead for 3-4 days.

Given this, can you see a big storm coming and then have time to move out of its way?

A lot of your ability to outrun a storm will depend on your boat speed. For a catamaran, it's main line of defense is it's ability to get the boat to a more benign location before the storm hits. For a monohull, which is usually slower, it's main line of defense is it's ability to weather storm conditions. Storms can often be avoided, but not always. The trickiest situations can occur close to shore given that you can be hemmed in by coastal obstructions where in the middle of the ocean you'd have no such limitations.
Ducking into port is often not an option in rough weather situations where the channel is closing out with 8' waves breaking across the mouth of the harbor.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by dick sargent

Changing course a few degrees to maintain a steady reading on the barometer when offshore was my rule. Wonder if just dumb luck or good seamanship.

It would be interesting to build a little autonamous boat that sailed to that rule and see how far it got. It could use "Buys Ballots Law" to decide which direction to alter course.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buys_Ballot's_law

[Gypsyjon]

Surely you are not asking this as a serious question....Good one though!!

Originally Posted by river251

If you can take all the time you want, and are not on a schedule for arrival, can you avoid storms?

I haven't yet sailed but am doing research, including here. It still seems that this is not a settled question.

I see and read often that modern forecasting can predict the weather 3 or 4 days ahead. Yet, there are stories of experienced operators getting caught in severe, damaging, and dangerous storms.

I understand some people must stick to a deadline, and proceed even if the weather is bad, for example John Kretschmer delivering a boat found himself in Force 13 and 11 storms with 30 foot waves. He says it is exhilarating. I want none of that. If I can't avoid storms, I'm not sure I want to traverse oceans.




So, my question is, if you can take all the time you want, can access the best weather data, and are not on a schedule for arrival, can you avoid storms?

Thanks for your thoughts.

Jim