U.S. to close..

[aqfishing]

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Have they? Can you link a source to prove it? We have been wearing masks for 7 months, have the rates dropped?

I wear my mask and try to control personal distance. But so far i have not seen numbers to support that is doing anything.

We have to face it. Corvid 19 isnt going away any more than the Flu has and we have a vaccine for the Flu.

And i dont want to hear any stories of govt not doing enough. If you have gone out in public don't blame your lack of personal responsibility on others!

Actually the rates have dropped if you understand what rates are. The key rate is what's known as the R factor is now down near 1 whereas it was about 3 when this thing started. R factor is rate at which people who have the disease pass it on. An R factor of 1 means that the number of cases in a population hold steady, a number greater than one means the number of cases will increase and less than one the number of cases will decrease. Even a small number above 1 and the cases will continue to increase. Although now we are closer to 1 we are not there yet. If we were still at three we would have many more cases than we have now. Was the R factor ever below 1? Yes, during the lock down, or the cases would never have come down.



While I'm not an epidemiologist I do Have a biology degree and took several courses in microbiology. While not the exclusive subject of these courses epidemics and pandemics were discussed and there were some basic factors common to them. This virus seems to be following those factors as far as I can tell.



The first is that over time the disease causing agent will evolve to be more contagious and less lethal.



Medical care will get better as Drs. get more experience treating the disease and the death rate will fall as a percentage of cases.



Good public health care practices based on quarantine, contact tracing, and case isolation work. Look at Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, and Japan if you want examples.



In the US we basically decided after the first lock down had brought the number of cases way down we opened up without putting the public health measures in place to keep them down. The "natural" R factor is still always what it once was or maybe even higher as we are now getting increasing numbers of cases even with mask wearing being somewhat effective. Remember what I said about a disease evolving into a less lethal but more contagious form. Though the number of cases is increasing dramatically the death rate has not gone up in proportion. Less lethal forms of the disease and Drs. getting better at treating it have probably combined to have this effect. Dead people don't tend to pass on disease, so more lethal forms of the disease tend to limit the spread. Sick people on the other hand spread the disease to more people. This can be seen in the differences between the SARS 1, MERS, and the current pandemic. SARS 1 and MERS were so deadly that the people died before they had a chance to spread it to many people. The current pandemic on the other hand is much less lethal with some people being contagious and not showing symptoms at all, but has spread much further.



One other factor which may be helping you personally is that you are on a boat in Florida. There are some very good studies showing that Vitamin D deficiency is associated with severe Covid 19. Living on a boat with plenty of sunshine, means that you probably don't have a problem with your vitamin D levels. There was a controlled study in Spain where 76 patients with confirmed Covid diagnoses were treated with Vitamin D upon hospital admission and all were deficient in Vitamin D. 50 were given a Vitamin D precursor as a course of treatment as well as the standard protocol and 26 were given just the standard protocol. This was a double blind study which is the best type. Of the 50 people getting the vitamin D only one required admission to the ICU and none died. In the control group 13 were admitted into the ICU and two died. There are now larger studies in progress to see if these results hold up.



There's a British doctor named John Campbell that does a daily youtube program on Covid and distills the scientific papers into pretty good points that a person without scientific training can easily understand. I recommend you take a look at some of his programs if you have access to decent internet.



I am glad to hear you are wearing a mask and social distancing. I wish you continued good health despite your lack of interest in the government doing anything to enhance your prospects.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Franziska

Actually, the countries which fare on average much better, are those with a government which does follow the scientific approach.

Yes, but I think that's a symptom or outcome, not a root cause. It's all intertwined with societal trust levels, which is reflected in levels of trust of elites, experts, and yes, scientists.

[Franziska]

I agree, especially as I see differences between the former East and West part.
I grew up in the western part, traveled a fair amount and now live in the former eastern part.

People in the former western part are not uncritical towards the state & government, but I have the feeling that in the core we do trust much more in our democracy.

Exceptional circumstances require exceptional methods. Still we know that we can trust that those measures are temporary.
I am under the impression though that people in the former east on average tend to see this less so.

Apart from that we now are amongst the hardest hit, because in spring that was not the case and people became complacent over the summer.

I attribute the higher cases in the former west in spring to a large part to the higher mobility of the people there. They are used to travel since childhood and did not change that.
Also, there are fewer big agglomorations and big cities in the former east.

Still, we are one nation and all over all everyone tries to follow the rules. We do have demonstrations against our (rather mild) semi lock down as well, but that is from not even 0.02% of the overall population. So somewhat neglect able, but unfortunately those folks carry the virus than further into the population.

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Yes, but I think that's a symptom or outcome, not a root cause. It's all intertwined with societal trust levels, which is reflected in levels of trust of elites, experts, and yes, scientists.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Franziska

... Mrs. Merkel btw. happens even to be a scientist herself...
... A while ago she gave a great example by explaining what an exponential development of cases actually means...

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by GordMay

I dies at ya!

[Pegu Club]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

Yeah right...thats gonna happen in todays USA.

Then that says we are no longer fellow country men and women, we need very much to get over ourselves and simply do the right things, it is not complicated, it is a choice, to work together or to sit back and watch a once proud country destroy itself. I say that I will work with you and for you, by myself doing the right things, how about you, it’s gotta start somewhere. This identity by political party ideology is a dishonorable way to live, it allows us to be easily divided and conquered.

United we stand divided we fail in being honorable people.

Fair winds,

[sailorboy1]

This is insane. I am going back to reading about boating

[Franziska]

Soo right.

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

This is insane. I am going back to reading about boating

[clockwork orange]

Originally Posted by NPCampbell

The only countries that have been successful at containing the virus are island nations. For all practical purposes, South Korea is an island nation. Trying to traverse their northern border will kill you faster than Covid will.



A complete shutdown only works in countries that can control their borders. We can't. Most of Europe can't.

Most of Europe went through a complete shutdown. Now, most of Europe is experiencing the highest infection rates in the world by far. France, Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy all are running higher infection rates per capita than the US and have been for around 2 months now. This is a pretty telling stat considering the US tests more per capita than any large country in the world outside of the UK.

Much too much is made of the advantage island nations have at controlling this when competent leadership is the real key, acting early to prevent the camels nose from getting under the tent has been a bigger factor. A prime example of an island nation with poor leadership that allowed it to get out of control would be the UK. Countries where the leadership acted effectively are now able to return to something resembling normal and their hospitals are not over run, medical personal are not burned out because they have few to no covid patients in hospital and they are in a better position should it ramp up again. Competent leadership, compliant
population who are willing to do the right thing so they can get back to some semblance of normality.

[Mike OReilly]

Unfortunately, this stuff directly affects us as cruisers. I've lost a whole season so far due to closures. I'm beginning to question whether 2021 will be any better.

[AA3JY]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Unfortunately, this stuff directly affects us as cruisers. I've lost a whole season so far due to closures. I'm beginning to question whether 2021 will be any better.

Exactly my point and intent of this ‘thread..

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by AA3JY

Exactly my point and intent of this ‘thread..

Our club had a late launch, so we had a decent sailing season this year... but no cruising or overnights (first season we've missed out )

I do think that things will be closer to normal for the 2021 sailing season around here, and limited cruising (eg between Canada and US) will become possible at some point in the summer, vaccine willing.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by clockwork orange

Much too much is made of the advantage island nations have at controlling this when competent leadership is the real key, acting early to prevent the camels nose from getting under the tent has been a bigger factor. A prime example of an island nation with poor leadership that allowed it to get out of control would be the UK. Countries where the leadership acted effectively are now able to return to something resembling normal and their hospitals are not over run, medical personal are not burned out because they have few to no covid patients in hospital and they are in a better position should it ramp up again. Competent leadership, compliant
population who are willing to do the right thing so they can get back to some semblance of normality.

That's of course what politicians would like for you to believe. That "leadership" is "key". But what is "leadership"? Can you recognize that reliably, or even define it?



It's profitable for politicians to APPEAR to be "strong" "leaders", and this appearance can be created with "bold" action and -- this is very important -- refusal to admit any doubts, or admit to any mistakes. But if that "bold" action is good from the point of view of appearance, but is not actually what the people need -- is that "leadership"?



There's a lot of that going on.



Where social trust helps (I was politely arguing against Mike's thesis, but now I'm going to flip around and argue for it) is that politicians are less desperate for this appearance of strength at any cost, and more able to admit doubts and mistakes (which are absolutely inevitable in a crisis like this) and make course corrections (absolutely essential in a crisis like this, where we know so little and have such a steep learning curve).



But even in countries with high social trust, you have problems. Like in Denmark where in March the politicians ignored pleas from health authorities to NOT close schools, but closed them anyway. At least they were able to admit their mistake without that being political suicide, like it is in countries with more vicious politics and more polarized, tribalized populations.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Unfortunately, this stuff directly affects us as cruisers. I've lost a whole season so far due to closures. I'm beginning to question whether 2021 will be any better.

You need to cross the pond and come over to this side for 2021.

I didn't have quite as good a summer as I usually do, but that is only because of my work, which was crazy during the summer.

In the Baltic Sea (we had a different thread about this) the only place where marinas closed (to visitors) was in Germany, and those were open already in June. We did have some restrictions for crossing borders, but those were lifted by June.

The strikingly different attitude towards cruising can be seen in this provision of the Finnish border regulations:

"Latest update 06.11.2020
The instructions of the Finnish Border Guard to passengers regarding entry to Finland

These instructions issued by the Finnish border guard provide passengers with information on the changes that apply to entry to Finland as of 9 November.
. . . .
2.1 Internal border traffic without restrictions: travel by pleasure craft between the Schengen countries

Recreational boat traffic (travel by pleasure craft) between Schengen countries is unrestricted by border control.
Recreational boat traffic between Schengen countries is unrestricted by border control, and recreational boats are not obliged to enter a border checkpoint."
https://www.raja.fi/current_issues/g...border_traffic

In other words, whatever border restrictions are in force, they do NOT apply to cruisers.

The attitude is just completely different here. So come on over, Mike. First dinner is on me.