Retirement - Managing your money

[wholybee]

Originally Posted by Star Fire

The USG has $10T worth of debt to rollover (refinance) in the next two years. They have three option:
1) suck it up and pay it off. Ha ha ha!
2) default and bring a max pain situation! Still not likely.
3) just print the money.

They will opt for #3. You know they will. In the pandemic they printed $6.5T and that cause that inflation we see today. The dollar has lost more than 10% of its notional value in the last two years, alone. This is only speeding up. Inflation is not a number, it’s a vector.

If you’re going to diversify, a minimum of 5% allocation to bitcoin is what I recommend. Stay away from “crypto”, Bitcoin only. Send me a private message for my twitter handle, where I do most of my work in Bitcoin. I’d feel more comfortable discussing this there. I’m brand new to cruisersforum and I don’t want to get booted on my first day.

Originally Posted by sandy stone

So, I'm not much of a financial expert. What caused the inflation in practically every other developed country, many of them worse than here?

Printing contributed to it, but wasn't the sole cause. Supply chain issues, the war in Ukraine etc. all played a part. And other countries print money too. And, inflation is back at pretty normal levels. Prices won't come down unless inflation goes negative, and that is as much an economic problem as high inflation. Printing money isn't bad, it just needs to be kept at levels appropriate to the situation.

There is a 4th option, btw. Cut spending (especially in the military but elsewhere too) and cancel all the tax breaks for the richest people in the country.

[Mickeyrouse]

Anyone retired and living on fixed income who is chasing market highs and lows is somebody else’s pigeon. I retired 23 years ago at 52 and have never been in anything but good dividend-paying master limited partnership units and a few bonds. Besides buying a house ( cash) and a couple new cars ( cash) and five trips to Europe, the nest egg is about double when I retired.

[sandy stone]

Originally Posted by wholybee

There is a 4th option, btw. Cut spending (especially in the military but elsewhere too) and cancel all the tax breaks for the richest people in the country.

Oh, so you're one of those people. Well, I am too. Although when you look around, it's pretty hard to point to any specific areas you could cut spending enough to make a difference without hurting a lot of people.

[KTP]

We invest our money in three buckets. Stocks, bonds, and boat. The boat one has a hole in it.

[denverd0n]

Originally Posted by sandy stone

So, I'm not much of a financial expert. What caused the inflation in practically every other developed country, many of them worse than here?

Same thing. Printing money. And in the countries where they didn't print so much money -- Germany, Britain, France -- their inflation has been significantly lower than ours.

[davefromoregon]

Originally Posted by denverd0n

Same thing. Printing money. And in the countries where they didn't print so much money -- Germany, Britain, France -- their inflation has been significantly lower than ours.

They were busy heading off a full on depression the same way we were. That was a very likely outcome from the covid years.

those countries did a pretty good job of it.

We missed the catastrophe but got stuck with the bill.

[Captain Graham]

Originally Posted by denverd0n

Same thing. Printing money. And in the countries where they didn't print so much money -- Germany, Britain, France -- their inflation has been significantly lower than ours.

Not sure where you are getting your information from but the inflation rate for these countries are all higher than the US. (Nov 23 numbers)

USA-3.1
UK (Britain) - 3.9
France - 3.5
Germany - 3.2

https://tradingeconomics.com/country...inflation-rate

[denverd0n]

They are very slightly higher than ours right now, but ours was WAAAAY higher during the last couple of years. Ours peaked at nearly 8% and has (thankfully) come down recently.

[davefromoregon]

Originally Posted by denverd0n

They are very slightly higher than ours right now, but ours was WAAAAY higher during the last couple of years. Ours peaked at nearly 8% and has (thankfully) come down recently.

We avoided a depression from covid. Slightly higher prices is an acceptable price.

[Star Fire]

100% of my money is Bitcoin. I'm doing just fine. Inflation in Bitcoin is currently at 1.7%, and, in April, that will be cut in half to 0.8% and again in 2028, it will be cut in half to 0.4%. And so on and so forth, every 4 years (every 210,000 blocks to be precise) until the year 2140, when inflation will cease to exist and it will become deflationary. Bitcoin is known monetary policy forever. I like that. It doesn't hinge on the words of a single person. Given the inflationary nature of fiat and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin, there is no theoretical maximum value of Bitcoin.

For cruisers, it's especially neat because it's recognized globally and there is near zero cost of ownership. Stamp your seed phrase on a 316 SS plate and keep it in you go-bag. Even in a ditch type situation, IF you survive, you can recover all your money.

Cruisers tend to value freedom above all else, which is exactly why I love being part of this crowd. Bitcoin is not owned or controlled by anyone. You will never need to seek permission by anyone to spend or receive it. Bitcoin doesn't care about a credit score.

[Shanachie]

Originally Posted by Star Fire

100% of my money is Bitcoin.

You should diversify. I hear tulip bulbs are a good investment. As are shares in the South Seas and Mississippi companies.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Star Fire

100% of my money is Bitcoin.

Well, you've certainly had a good run.

Congrats.

I can't in good conscience buy any of that when it just went way up, anticipating the approval of some index funds, but you'll probably do OK once they're in place, too.

[sailorboy1]

there is a lot to be said for "just" accepting a fairly safe reasonable rate of return

otherwise just go to a casino and play roulette and accept you have a 49% chance of doubling your money or losing it all each spin

[skipperpete]

Originally Posted by Star Fire

100% of my money is Bitcoin. I'm doing just fine. Inflation in Bitcoin is currently at 1.7%, and, in April, that will be cut in half to 0.8% and again in 2028, it will be cut in half to 0.4%. And so on and so forth, every 4 years (every 210,000 blocks to be precise) until the year 2140, when inflation will cease to exist and it will become deflationary. Bitcoin is known monetary policy forever. I like that. It doesn't hinge on the words of a single person. Given the inflationary nature of fiat and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin, there is no theoretical maximum value of Bitcoin.

For cruisers, it's especially neat because it's recognized globally and there is near zero cost of ownership. Stamp your seed phrase on a 316 SS plate and keep it in you go-bag. Even in a ditch type situation, IF you survive, you can recover all your money.

Cruisers tend to value freedom above all else, which is exactly why I love being part of this crowd. Bitcoin is not owned or controlled by anyone. You will never need to seek permission by anyone to spend or receive it. Bitcoin doesn't care about a credit score.

Thats a shaky position to be in Star fire, not because I’m a crypto hater, ( I’m not, I have 3 bitcoin) but because of , A. the fragility of your position with all your savings in the one financial basket, B. Total reliance on an increasingly unreliable and corrupted internet, C. The increasing ability of machine learning to break codes and passwords more easily , D. The introduction of a futures market that specifically disallows settlement in ACTUAL bitcoin. If bitcoin can be traded without physical ownership or possession, the price can be manipulated. I suspect that in the near future, the moves toward a Central Bank Digital Currency will be successful and that process could very likely mean the engineered destruction of other crypto currencies if its deemed that theres only room for the CBDC’s....

[Star Fire]

Originally Posted by skipperpete

Thats a shaky position to be in Star fire, not because I’m a crypto hater, ( I’m not, I have 3 bitcoin) but because of , A. the fragility of your position with all your savings in the one financial basket, B. Total reliance on an increasingly unreliable and corrupted internet, C. The increasing ability of machine learning to break codes and passwords more easily , D. The introduction of a futures market that specifically disallows settlement in ACTUAL bitcoin. If bitcoin can be traded without physical ownership or possession, the price can be manipulated. I suspect that in the near future, the moves toward a Central Bank Digital Currency will be successful and that process could very likely mean the engineered destruction of other crypto currencies if its deemed that theres only room for the CBDC’s....

The CBDC is already here. FedNow went live in July. Financial institutions cannot change bitcoin. The best they can hope for is a hard fork, which I will sell and buy more bitcoin with. They can write any law they wish, but, they cannot physically prevent me from sending and receiving Bitcoin. China has banned it 20 times and still, ≈20% of bitcoin tx’s originate from inside bitcoin. If they did take down the entire internet or global power grid, money will be the least of your worries. Guns and bullets will be far more important. Even so, if only one node survives, the entire network will be up and fully functional within 10 minutes after services are restored.

“If you don’t understand or just don’t get it, I don’t have the time to convince you.” —Satoshi Nakamoto

I wrote a paper on how to bid contracts, for services to be performed at a later date, denominated in Bitcoin. You can read it, pinned to my profile page on twitter(X) @sarah_nakamoto or dm me an email and I’ll send a PDF. I've used it, in the bear market no less, and it works.

I’d be more careful putting all your trust in governments. I don’t trust them. I don’t need them. I don’t use them. “If you need a leader, you’re not qualified to choose one.” —Michael Malice