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Old 16-05-2018, 08:05   #31
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Re: Safety and Cruising

There are many mentions of inner-city crime here, but I think cruisers going to distant shores have different concerns: How safe is the port? Will we be safe from theft or other crime? Will my boat be safe? Is it safe to walk around this port or shore?

Taking a sober look at crime statistics in different cruising areas seems logical. I'm not sure why this would collect ridicule from others. Clearly there are safer places and more dangerous places. Being informed is not the same as being paranoid. There are resources such as noonsite.com that simply collect crime information which does not seem to be slanted for political reasons. Scientific? Maybe not. Informative. Sure. Why not?

I'm willing to guess that nobody here has intentionally anchored their sailboat at the beautiful beaches of Somolia. That's a no-brainer. However, there are many other shores flagged as pirate or crime areas among certain publications. Which parts of the beautiful Brazilian coastline would you avoid? If you said "none", then you are more brave than most informed cruisers. It's okay to be informed and brave and okay to be informed and cautious. However, there is a word to describe those that are uninformed and brave. It's not a complimentary word.
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Old 16-05-2018, 08:44   #32
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Re: Safety and Cruising

If you criticize Rognvald for questioning the safety of Brazil and then state that Chicago, New York, LA on any other US city is unsafe you may just be a hypocrite.
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Old 16-05-2018, 09:41   #33
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Re: Safety and Cruising

Reasons why people willingly sail to dangerous places:

Sometimes people don't actually "willingly plan" on going to dangerous places- they're just on the planned route. If you're going through the Panama canal to cruise in the (very safe) South Pacific, you'll probably find yourself in Colon, Panama at some point. If you're cruising in the (quite safe) southeastern part of Brazil and want to head up to the Caribbean, you have to sail through the (not quite so safe) northeast of Brazil on the way. I suppose you can avoid many of the dangerous bits by just sailing on past, but that's not why people cruise. I can't imagine a RTW route that wouldn't place you in some dodgy places along the route. You inform yourself ahead of time, get local information, take some precautions and hope for the best (it usually turns out fine).
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Old 16-05-2018, 10:05   #34
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Re: Safety and Cruising

Chat so often devolves into intramural squabbling, sniping and name calling. That's without any redeeming value, and a pity. We'd all get more from it were it not so.

Here endeth the lesson. Apologies for going off topic.
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Old 16-05-2018, 10:10   #35
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Re: Safety and Cruising

If safety is your main concern, Singapore or Monaco. Almost 0 crime
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Old 16-05-2018, 22:59   #36
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Re: Safety and Cruising

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Chat so often devolves into intramural squabbling, sniping and name calling.
This thread seems friendly enough to me. The OP asked a very good question about why some people cruise to dangerous places. Sure, he was a bit misunderstood in early posts, but that's common in this format.

It appears that many people have different reasons, awareness levels, precautions, and overall life philosophies. I find these responses quite enlightening. It is quite interesting to compare my own attitudes and cruising plans to those of others here.

Regarding destinations, I think I'm on the cautious side with family on board, and more of a daredevil when single-handed. However, I don't go far single-handed, so perhaps the daredevil feeling is only in my head?
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Old 16-05-2018, 23:34   #37
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Re: Safety and Cruising

If Fear of the Unknown is an acceptable premise?
Then
Visiting those unknown places, seems like a plausible a solution
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Old 17-05-2018, 00:44   #38
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Re: Safety and Cruising

Then what about disease risk? You avoid places 'known' to be violent but what about malaria, dengue fever, zika....? Just as with violence there are some prophylactic measures you can take, that reduce, but do not remove your risk. And in some cases that prophylaxis may be more placebo than actual (similar to some preparations I read about for violence).

You also have to be careful about tarring with too wide a brush. Is Panama dangerous and violent? Or just the north side? Or just Colon? Or parts of several cities, but with lots of nice places surrounding?
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Old 17-05-2018, 01:01   #39
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Historically ports have always been prone to violence.. they are after all places where a lot of criminal activities occur.. smuggling for a start.. also a larger mix of nationalities and men who live hard lives and a tendency to play hard as a result.. they are a magnet for the less desirables from inland..
Many picturesque sleepy looking seaside towns and villages have a dark underbelly.. just need to walk into the wrong pub and suddenly your in the belly of the beast..
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Old 17-05-2018, 01:27   #40
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Re: Safety and Cruising

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Historically ports have always been prone to violence.. they are after all places where a lot of criminal activities occur.. smuggling for a start.. also a larger mix of nationalities and men who live hard lives and a tendency to play hard as a result.. they are a magnet for the less desirables from inland..
Many picturesque sleepy looking seaside towns and villages have a dark underbelly.. just need to walk into the wrong pub and suddenly your in the belly of the beast..
That reminds me of a time in Galway. Apparently I did walk into the 'wrong pub'. Small, dilapidated, on the waterfront, my kind of place. Late afternoon, I seem to be the only customer. The barkeep said I shouldn't be there as he put my beer in front of me. I asked his name. I kid you not, just like a Hollywood movie, a fellow appears from out of the shadows and says, he told you to leave.

Without moving from my stool, I looked him up and down and noticed he had on his rubber boots. I lit on that as a point of conversation. He continued to growl at me as I inquired what fish does he catch. His attitude broke when I mentioned that I too have done my time in the industry, only I was sure not to speak of it in past tense.

It's a tactic I've used before and with success. It knocks them off their game, I do not address them square on; to change the rules more to my liking as it were. Anyway, it was hours later when we finished up what was meant, by me, to be just a pint. We were new best friends.

I treat the black hearts the same as wild animals; don't back down, don't turn away. Fill their head with questions, bluff them if you have to. If you let them think they have the upper hand, you're a goner.
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Old 17-05-2018, 01:46   #41
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Re: Safety and Cruising

The problem with a thread like this is, it makes the assumption there's regular violence against cruisers travelling afar. This is just not the case. I hear very infrequently of problems.
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Old 17-05-2018, 04:19   #42
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Re: Safety and Cruising

Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikes: The Value of Probabilistic Thinking
https://www.fs.blog/2018/05/probabilistic-thinking/

“There are three important aspects of probability that we need to explain so you can integrate them into your thinking to get into the ballpark and improve your chances of catching the ball:
1. Bayesian thinking
2. Fat-tailed curves
3. Asymmetries”


But, probabilistic thinking can only get you in the ballpark. It doesn’t guarantee 100% success. We can act with a higher level of certainty in complex, unpredictable situations, but we can never know the future with exact precision.
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Old 17-05-2018, 04:38   #43
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Re: Safety and Cruising

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Actually here in the US, if you exclude those murdered while engaged in illegal activities including drug and human trafficking, the violent crime rate is as low as that of western European countries.
I’ve heard this before and from someone who done some research on this matter. ONE of the problems we have is folks twisting and spinning stats for a particular goal.

The USA has a specific problem with these illegal activities. And they can spill over into the adjacent population.
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Old 17-05-2018, 04:39   #44
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Re: Safety and Cruising

Rognvald,

Was there some specific place or activity you had in mind?
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Old 17-05-2018, 05:24   #45
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Re: Safety and Cruising

I haven’t looked at the USA stats, but the vast majority of violent crime (at least in western countries) occurs in two areas: so-called “domestic” disputes, and within communities involved in illegal activity (usually drugs). There is very little “random” violent crime in western countries. When it does, it’s usually spill over (as hpeer says).

Property crime is different, of course. Robbery, theft, etc. happen everywhere, and is often (not always) associated with poverty and wealth inequality. Makes sense to pay attention to these rates, and act accordingly (extra vigilance, steering clear).
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