Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 28-12-2015, 18:11   #556
Registered User
 
Delancey's Avatar

Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Miami, FL
Boat: sunk by irma
Posts: 3,462
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

2,244,000 sharks killed since this thread started. How many more have to die before you guys figure this global warming business out? Just askin.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	image.jpeg
Views:	33
Size:	193.8 KB
ID:	115766  
__________________

__________________
Delancey is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 18:14   #557
Marine Service Provider
 
SV THIRD DAY's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: La Paz, Mexico
Boat: 1978 Hudson Force 50 Ketch
Posts: 3,653
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Delancey View Post
2,112,000 sharks killed since this thread started. How many more have to die before you guys figure this global warming business out? Just askin.
Bingo...
Focus on what Matters!
__________________

__________________
Rich Boren Goodbye Morro Bay...Hello La Paz, Mexico and the owner of:
Cruise RO Water High Output Water
Technautic CoolBlue Refrigeration
SV THIRD DAY is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 18:16   #558
Marine Service Provider
 
SV THIRD DAY's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: La Paz, Mexico
Boat: 1978 Hudson Force 50 Ketch
Posts: 3,653
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Rich uses a gold market shill's web site for his science.
Same old attack the Messenger when you can't debate the issue.
Denier....
Gold Shill...
What next...Racist?

These Eco Imperialists are all the same, but they are fun to watch blow a blood vessel.

Oh and the Blaze.
It's only the No 2 most popular website for Political news and if you think MMGW isn't political...ha ha ha, put down the Bong and exhale.
http://www.ebizmba.com/articles/political-websites
__________________
Rich Boren Goodbye Morro Bay...Hello La Paz, Mexico and the owner of:
Cruise RO Water High Output Water
Technautic CoolBlue Refrigeration
SV THIRD DAY is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 18:18   #559
Registered User
 
Delancey's Avatar

Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Miami, FL
Boat: sunk by irma
Posts: 3,462
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Had to check my math. It's been eight days and twelve hours since the thread started. That 2,244,000 number is based on 11,000 per hour which is a little low by some estimates.
__________________
Delancey is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 18:38   #560
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM View Post
Or to put it another way. The only real issues are:

1. Are the model predictions of the warming resulting from human CO2 emissions accurate (i.e. what is the real Climate Sensitivity to CO2 and the associated feedbacks) since these are what drives the whole scare.

2. How significant is that climate sensitivity compared to natural climate variability?

3. how catastrophic would a possible 2-3 degree change in global average temperatures really be?


Given that :

1. the last 20 years has proven that the answer to Question 1 is a resounding "NO"

2. No one knows the answer to the second question and if the answer is "insignificant" we could just as easily be facing future cooling.

3. No one knows the answer to the third question, but it is fairly certain than warming of that extent would be better than cooling so a lot depends on No 2.

the big question is whether the proposed draconian solutions are in the best interests of mankind.
1. 20 years of warming using UAH satellite data.



All other questions are moot.
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 18:52   #561
Senior Cruiser
 
senormechanico's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Aug 2003
Boat: Dragonfly 1000 trimaran
Posts: 5,827
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Rich uses a gold market shill's web site for his science.
Over the last several years, Glenn Beck has been 100% right about ISIS and the rise of the caliphate.
Chris Mattews called him "loony tunes" for that prediction.

Not everybody buys your flaming GW stuff, and we all know you can sail.
You don't need to keep advertising it in your signature.
__________________
Memento,homo, quia pulvis es, et in pulverem reverteris.
senormechanico is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 18:53   #562
Senior Cruiser
 
newhaul's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: puget sound washington
Boat: 1968 Islander bahama 24 hull 182, 1963 columbia 29 defender. hull # 60
Posts: 3,985
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Here is a neat little chart from a reputable source shows lots more snow than normal for today in the northern hemisphere. Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
But the planet is warming as the mmgw types say significantly warming
__________________
newhaul is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 18:56   #563
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by senormechanico View Post

Not everybody buys your flaming GW stuff, and we all know you can sail.
You don't need to keep advertising it in your signature.
No science academy on the planet disputes the conclusions of the IPCC.

Sorry if my signature annoys you - ignore it.
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 19:00   #564
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Here is a neat little chart from a reputable source shows lots more snow than normal for today in the northern hemisphere. Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
But the planet is warming as the mmgw types say significantly warming
All of which were forecast by those pesky models.

https://opensnow.com/news/post/el-ni...016-ski-season
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 19:08   #565
Moderator
 
sailorchic34's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: SF Bay Area
Boat: Islander 34
Posts: 4,815
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
1. 20 years of warming using UAH satellite data.



All other questions are moot.
Ah, if you plot from 2000 to 2014 there actually has not been any warming, and perhaps a slight overall cooling trend. From WFT site....

So the question is where is the warming after 2000. While co2 has risen 30ppm or 0.003 % since the late 90's we have not seen a corresponding rise in global temperature, which the model predicted.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	from 2000.png
Views:	25
Size:	5.6 KB
ID:	115767  
__________________
sailorchic34 is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 19:14   #566
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by sailorchic34 View Post
Ah, if you plot from 2000 to 2014 there actually has not been any warming, and perhaps a slight overall cooling trend. From WFT site....

So the question is where is the warming after 2000. While co2 has risen 30ppm or 0.003 % since the late 90's we have not seen a corresponding rise in global temperature, which the model predicted.
StuM said 20 years, I gave him 20 years.

You are cherry picking dates.

The WMO standard for climate is 30 years, which is even steeper.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah...m:1984/to:2014





As to the "hiatus", read some science

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v.../ngeo2105.html

The Recent Slowing in the Rise of Global Temperatures | Remote Sensing Systems
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 19:29   #567
Registered User
 
Muckle Flugga's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Aboard the Ocean wave
Boat: 55' sloop.
Posts: 1,426
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
What proposed draconian solutions, specifically?
Well… there are these for a start.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...eering_schemes

This is indeed something that I am worried about, as I feel that a bigscale tech "solution" may well just be one more animal swallowed by the old woman who swallowed a fly…
__________________
‘Structural engineering is the art of modeling materials we do not wholly understand into shapes we cannot precisely analyse as to withstand forces we cannot properly assess in such a way that the public at large has no reason to suspect the extent of our ignorance.’
Muckle Flugga is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 19:30   #568
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 2,961
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Originally Posted by StuM:

Or to put it another way. The only real issues are:

1. Are the model predictions of the warming resulting from human CO2 emissions accurate (i.e. what is the real Climate Sensitivity to CO2 and the associated feedbacks) since these are what drives the whole scare.

2. How significant is that climate sensitivity compared to natural climate variability?

3. how catastrophic would a possible 2-3 degree change in global average temperatures really be?


Given that :

1. the last 20 years has proven that the answer to Question 1 is a resounding "NO"

2. No one knows the answer to the second question and if the answer is "insignificant" we could just as easily be facing future cooling.

3. No one knows the answer to the third question, but it is fairly certain than warming of that extent would be better than cooling so a lot depends on No 2.

the big question is whether the proposed draconian solutions are in the best interests of mankind.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
1. 20 years of warming using UAH satellite data.



All other questions are moot.
And if you plot the entire 20 years, it looks like somewhere b'twn. a 0.2-0.3 degree difference (celsius, I assume). That may answer #1 in and of itself, and renders Stu's remaining two questions hardly "moot."

If this difference (depending on what year you plot from) is consistent with a natural, non-man made trend, then there's probably nothing we can or should do to try and influence it. That's directly relevant to question #2.

Regardless of whether the temp difference is caused by humans or not, whether the change is inconsequential, mild, severe, or catastrophic will have to inform our actions, whether they be prevention, mitigation, recovery, or rehabilitation. That's directly relevant to #3.
__________________
Exile is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 19:33   #569
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Exlie - the natural forcings (Milankovitch cycles, solar activity, etc.) should point to cooling. There is no cooling.

Solar scientists, such as Mike Lockwood and the Stanford Solar Center , has indicated that human activities have overwhelmed natural cycles.
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Old 28-12-2015, 19:37   #570
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,048
Images: 1
Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

Here is the RSS data.



No single data point from 1994 to the present is below the mean. Above average temperatures are warmer.
__________________

__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Cruising and the Coming Storm ~ Recession, Depression, Climate Change, Peak Oil jtbsail Off Topic Forum 162 13-10-2015 13:17
Weather Patterns / Climate Change anjou Off Topic Forum 185 19-01-2010 15:08
Climate Change GordMay Off Topic Forum 445 02-09-2008 08:48
Healthiest coral reefs hardest hit by climate change GordMay Off Topic Forum 33 11-05-2007 03:07



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 03:23.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.