Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 26-06-2016, 09:32   #16
Registered User

Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 4,949
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

Humans don't like dealing with ambiguities but I'm pretty sure all this will sort itself out given a bit of time. Sometimes good can come from shaking things up. Governments will never bring change unless there is crisis.
__________________

__________________
robert sailor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-06-2016, 10:29   #17
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cowes (Winter), Baltic (Summer) (the boat!); somewhere in the air (me!)
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 19,750
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

Quote:
Originally Posted by weavis View Post
. . .
I dont know. There is a rush on the part of some Europeans to finish the process quickly and remove GB and yet in GB, there appears to be no strategy in place to implement the decision. The PM has resigned and will leave to the next PM to deal with it.

I would like to think that I could sail my vessel in Spanish waters with minimum of problems or restrictions in the future.

When the political deal is done, they will tell me...
There were clear messages from Merkel and Hollande today that the process will be done in a civilized way, and without any punitive intent toward the UK. Merkel said clearly that the UK will not be pushed to do it quickly.

Hollande's further statements were particularly interesting. Rather than blaming the British, he acknowledged that the EU has serious problems and needs serious reforms. Hollande and Merkel together show how the EU will try to hold itself together -- they will offer doubtful members reforms, rather than kicking the British to show that leaving is unpleasant.

This is clever -- Hollande will be able to hide behind Merkel, so that he can deal with his own people. There is a serious risk that there will be a revolt against the EU in France, too, particularly if the Netherlands or Czech Republic leave. As early as last March, a significant majority of French voters were in favor of holding a referendum in France like Brexit (Majority of French back holding ‘Frexit’ referendum – EurActiv.com), and now Marie Le Pen has formally called for it. So far we don't see a majority of French people actually wanting to exit the EU, but the numbers (45% to 33% in March) are similar to what we saw in the UK just a few months ago, so the situation is really dangerous.

If other countries start to exit the EU, the most obvious candidates are Netherlands, Czech Republic, and Sweden. In the Netherlands, the party of nationalist, anti-immigration candidate, Geert Wilders, PVV, has maintained a commanding lead in the polls all year, and Wilders may well be the new Dutch PM after in the next elections which will be held in less than a year. Exiting the EU is one of the main planks of the PVV program. Since all the other Dutch parties are strongly in favor of EU membership, it's somewhat hard to imagine that Wilders will be able to implement his scheme, but you never know what will happen over the next months as the practical side of Brexit unfolds. The Dutch are closely aligned with the UK both politically and economically, and Brexit will have a huge impact in the Netherlands, the effect of which we can't really guess. The EU without Britain will suddenly be a completely different proposition for the Dutch. Euroskeptic attitudes in the Netherlands are driven, like in Sweden, by a backlash against the free movement of immigrants across national borders, and many people made angry by this aspect of EU membership are fairly easy targets for the other anti-EU arguments concerning over-regulation, unaccountable bureaucracies, etc.

Poland presently has an anti-EU government, but the Polish people are strongly pro-EU (which might not be surprising, considering that Poland is the largest net recipient of EU wealth transfers), so it's hard to imagine Pexit. The attitude in Poland is that the EU should be reformed, with less political power, so look for Donald Tusk to be a leader in the reform movement.

In my opinion, we will see a pretty quick reform movement in Europe which will return significant powers to the national governments and partially reverse integration. The question is whether this will be enough to save the EU. I certainly hope it will.

But one of the many problems created by Brexit is a serious disruption of the political balance inside the EU. The military cooperation between the UK and France -- the only nuclear powers in the EU -- was fundamental to the military program of the EU. France will be left alone as the only big military power, and will have difficulty with the smaller countries who have sometimes very different agendas. But far, far worse is the North-South divide in the EU, where stronger Northern economies have been supporting weaker Southern ones for decades by now. The UK is the third largest net contributor to the EU budget, and losing the UK's contribution will force the other large payers (Germany, France, Netherlands) to increase their contributions, which will be disastrous for public opinion in those countries. But there is also tremendous tension between North and South on questions of economic policy -- and the UK was the main ally of Germany and the Netherlands in maintaining some sensible market-oriented policies. Now the balance of power will change, and the South may get the greater wealth transfers it desires, and more protectionism, and less policy friendly the business and investment. We live in -- as they say -- interesting times.


What all this means concretely to cruisers is that Europe has become a less stable and predictable place than it was a few days ago. If the EU disappears completely, then it will become necessary to clear in and clear out of every country. If Schengen disappears (not inevitable even if the EU disappears), then this will be an advantage to non-European cruisers as each country will have its own period of permitted stay, which will not reduce the amount of time you can stay in other countries. For Europeans, it will become somewhat more difficult to move between countries, as borders reappear, but this is nothing catastrophic -- I traveled around a lot in Europe before the EU and before Schengen -- it was not a big deal to cross the borders.

If the Euro disappears, then cruisers will have the hassle of multiple currencies. But we know how this works -- anyway on our annual cruise, we have to deal with at least four currencies (GBP, Euro, Danish Crown, Swedish Crown, and sometimes Rubles and Zlotys). It's not the end of the world.
__________________

__________________
"Parce que je suis heureux en mer, et peut-être pour sauver mon ame. . . "
Dockhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-06-2016, 11:29   #18
CF Adviser
 
Pelagic's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Boat: Van Helleman Schooner 65ft StarGazer
Posts: 6,894
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

Does anyone think the Pope will get involved if the Swedes Sexit?
__________________
Pelagic is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 26-06-2016, 15:41   #19
Registered User
 
Polux's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Portugal/Med
Boat: Comet 41s
Posts: 5,765
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

Quote:
Originally Posted by Polux View Post
Please stay out of party policies and comment on general policies that will have an impact on cruising.

Starting by replying to this:

----SNIP----

Polux:

In line with your own words, and in line with CF policy.. we have removed your political viewpoint... Please stick to sailing..


...
It was not my viewpoint, it was a direct reply to a dockhead question about facts and I quoted facts (poll results). Factual reality has nothing to do with my political viewpoint neither it has a direct answer to a question formulated to me by a member of this forum about something I posted.

Politics (not party politics) "refers to achieving and exercising positions of governance — organized control over a human community... Furthermore, politics is the study or practice of the distribution of power and resources within a given community (a usually hierarchically organized population) as well as the interrelationship(s) between communities."

It makes no sense not to talk about politics in this case because they relate directly with the control of the cruising community and the changes that a different policy, due to different political realities will bring.
Polux is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-06-2016, 16:52   #20
Senior Cruiser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: between the devil and the deep blue sea
Boat: a sailing boat
Posts: 17,314
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

Oysters became 10% cheaper overnight.

They will become even cheaper or more expensive now depending on what international financial markets think of economy outlooks for a marginal, isolated ex European market.

For the time being this is good news for US buyers and UK exporters.

b.
__________________
barnakiel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-06-2016, 06:41   #21
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 4,880
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

- UK will become a more popular reset location. Before it was only good for Schengen visa but now it makes it much easier to cruise northern Europe with a non-VAT paid boat for a few years.
- I suspect UK VAT paid boats will retain their status as they were EU VAT paid at the time of payment (new UK VAT likely will not confer the same status). I think if it went to a court case, the boaters would win in anything like a fair trial.
- You may get the occasional disgruntled official, especially early in the transition, who takes it out on UK boaters but mostly a hassle and should settle out with a bit of time.
- UK citizens may not be able to stay indefinitely. Though this may push thru needed Schengen rule changes. If Spanish & Portuguese retirement towns dry up because their hundreds of thousands of UK residents can only stay for 3 months rather than the entire winter, that will have a lot more political clout than the current couple thousand non-EU, non-UK boaters who want a longer stay. Hopefully, the boating community gets to ride along.
- Then there is the bigger question of does the Euro & Schengen survive. I think there is a very real risk of one or both ending. The risk was there before but the Brexit is a major increase in the risk. Yes, I understand the UK isn't in the Schengen or on the Euro but it's a demonstration to other countries that you can leave. I have mixed feelings on this one (looking only at the cruising aspects not the impact on the citizens), both certainly make it more convenient for travel but it comes at a cost. The popular cruising destinations on the med would likely be cheaper if they used a local currency. I'm certain Greece, Spain and Portugal would have had currency values drop significantly but the northern countries have held the Euro higher. Technically, northern Europe has been cheaper than it should be but it's not nearly as popular and for non-EU cruisers, resetting visa/VAT clocks is less convenient.


In the end, we can only speculate until more details are filled in. As someone else suggested, it may get the bureaucrats to back off on enough of their silly rules that the UK decides to stay. It's not just the UK where there are major movements pushing back but having worked in govt for a few years, change rarely happens unless outside forces push the issue. There are lots of outside forces and they've proved they have the power to disrupt the system.
__________________
valhalla360 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-06-2016, 07:45   #22
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Switzerland
Boat: So many boats to choose from. Would prefer something that is not an AWB, and that is beachable...
Posts: 1,242
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

People, calm down. The UK hasn't left the EU, and probably never will.



Sent from my iPad using Cruisers Sailing Forum
__________________
K_V_B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-06-2016, 07:45   #23
Registered User

Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 523
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

IF the UK leaves the EU - that is still a big IF! I suspect that the impact will not be as economically significant as some suspect because it will not be in the economic interests of the UK or the rest of Europe. Most UK businesses with dealings with mainland Europe will wish to remain EU compliant and so in effect many of the regulations will still have effect in the UK. Equally European business will not wish to see "punishment" handed out that may result in tit-for tat responses.

What I think is more certain in the economic short run is that the instability in the UK will effect consumer and business confidence with the inevitable downward pressure on the economy. My view is that this will happen regardless of staying or existing but the longer there is uncertainty the bigger the internal effect will be.

In the context of sailing I think the three big issues will be Visas, VAT and Boat valuations. It will be interesting to see what changes occur in the differentiation between VAT paid and VAT not paid boats. It the UK exits and I can register a boat there without actually importing it then I may save myself some money.
__________________
2 Dogs
justwaiting is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-06-2016, 08:05   #24
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cowes (Winter), Baltic (Summer) (the boat!); somewhere in the air (me!)
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 19,750
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

Quote:
Originally Posted by K_V_B View Post
People, calm down. The UK hasn't left the EU, and probably never will.

I think the UK definitely will leave the EU as the EU is presently constituted, but today Boris Johnson, who was one of the main leaders of the "Leave" campaign, and likely successor to Cameron as PM, made remarks that made it clear his intention, at least, would be to maintain the common market and even free movement of people -- and to limit "leaving" to getting out of the political arrangements.

That would be some trick, but if there's will on all sides, why not?
__________________
"Parce que je suis heureux en mer, et peut-être pour sauver mon ame. . . "
Dockhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-06-2016, 16:28   #25
Registered User

Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,321
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
Since all the other Dutch parties are strongly in favor of EU membership, it's somewhat hard to imagine that Wilders will be able to implement his scheme
Good post.
Also as the Dutch do like to use Italian ports (Genoa etc) to freight goods to Asia, they will need the cooperation of Germany and Italy.
__________________
chala is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-06-2016, 16:47   #26
Registered User

Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 378
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

I'd wondered, a bit, whether the referendum would stick - or if they'd drag their feet until they could push through a second referendum to reverse.

Then this hit the news:

EU to launch kettle and toaster crackdown after Brexit vote

Quote:
The EU is poised to ban high-powered appliances such as kettles, toasters, hair-dryers within months of Britain’s referendum vote, despite senior officials admitting the plan has brought them “ridicule”.

The European Commission plans to unveil long-delayed ‘ecodesign’ restrictions on small household appliances in the autumn. They are expected to ban the most energy-inefficient devices from sale in order to cut carbon emissions.

The plans have been ready for many months, but were shelved for fear of undermining the referendum campaign if they were perceived as an assault on the British staples of tea and toast.
Somehow, I can't see the Brits being willing to give up their toasters and kettles.
__________________
Jdege is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-06-2016, 21:46   #27
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Switzerland
Boat: So many boats to choose from. Would prefer something that is not an AWB, and that is beachable...
Posts: 1,242
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
In the Netherlands, the party of nationalist, anti-immigration candidate, Geert Wilders, PVV, has maintained a commanding lead in the polls all year, and Wilders may well be the new Dutch PM after in the next elections which will be held in less than a year.
That is very unlikely. The Netherlands have a system of proportional representation (like many countries on the continent), which means that the government is usually a coalition. For Wilders to become prime minister he would need to get a plurality of the popular vote, and that is unlikely...

Quote:
If the Euro disappears, then cruisers will have the hassle of multiple currencies. But we know how this works -- anyway on our annual cruise, we have to deal with at least four currencies (GBP, Euro, Danish Crown, Swedish Crown, and sometimes Rubles and Zlotys). It's not the end of the world.
Cash is disappearing anyway. On my trip to Scandinavia last year I had to deal with four different currencies (five if I include my home country). I solved it by going entirely cash less.
That may not work everywhere, but then, yachties don't move that fast either...


Quote:
Originally Posted by chala View Post
Good post.
Also as the Dutch do like to use Italian ports (Genoa etc) to freight goods to Asia, they will need the cooperation of Germany and Italy.
You've got that entirely backwards. It's the Italians that use Dutch (and German, Belgian) ports to get stuff from China. The biggest railfreight corridor in Europe runs from the North Sea ports to Northern Italy. Quite a significant portion of that passes through Switzerland, which is not a EU member. Systems allowing cross border transport without having to deal with customs at each crossing exist, and have existed for a long time. How do you think things worked before the EU?
__________________
K_V_B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-06-2016, 23:58   #28
Registered User
 
hoppy's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Boat: Jeanneau Sun Odyssey 40
Posts: 2,842
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

After Brexit2, England 1-2 Iceland - BBC Sport
no English will be wanting to venture into Europe for a while now.
__________________
S/Y Jessabbé http://www.jessabbe.com/
hoppy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-06-2016, 00:04   #29
Registered User
 
hoppy's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Boat: Jeanneau Sun Odyssey 40
Posts: 2,842
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

Quote:
Originally Posted by K_V_B View Post
Cash is disappearing anyway. On my trip to Scandinavia last year I had to deal with four different currencies (five if I include my home country). I solved it by going entirely cash less.
That may not work everywhere, but then, yachties don't move that fast either...
The idiot Swedes keep banging on about becoming a cashless society but the banks have been so underprepared for it (other then closing down branches that allow cash transactions to take place)

So infuriating waiting in a queue of card paying Swedes when it's all chip and pin. So late to introduce contactless payments
__________________
S/Y Jessabbé http://www.jessabbe.com/
hoppy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-06-2016, 00:09   #30
Registered User
 
hoppy's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Boat: Jeanneau Sun Odyssey 40
Posts: 2,842
Re: UK, EU and repercussions on cruising

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
If the Euro disappears, then cruisers will have the hassle of multiple currencies. But we know how this works -- anyway on our annual cruise, we have to deal with at least four currencies (GBP, Euro, Danish Crown, Swedish Crown, and sometimes Rubles and Zlotys). It's not the end of the world.
If a cruiser finds that too much of a hassle, then perhaps they should stay home. I have been on motorcycle tours of Europe using 11 currencies on one trip. It was never a big deal, but sure it was nicer once my trips were reduced to 2 or 3 currencies
__________________

__________________
S/Y Jessabbé http://www.jessabbe.com/
hoppy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
cruising

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
wrong saildrive oil repercussions monte Engines and Propulsion Systems 17 05-01-2016 13:36
Georgetown Passage Day 3 – January 5 and 8, and beyond – Part II Cruising is…. skipgundlach General Sailing Forum 0 21-03-2009 15:51
Georgetown Passage Day 3 – January 5 and 8, and beyond – Part I Cruising is…. skipgundlach General Sailing Forum 0 21-03-2009 15:31
Wanted: Charts and Cruising Guides to East coast, Bahamas and Caribbean keliandstu Classifieds Archive 1 16-11-2008 20:18
Bahamas and Caribbean Cruising Guides, Explorer Charts and Van Sant dworkman Classifieds Archive 1 15-09-2008 23:03



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 23:05.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.