Six Months on... Global Collapse Destinations?

[Morgan Paul]

The blame for our current debacle lays heavily and squarely on Bush, Cheny, and their cronies. Turn off Fox, Turn off Rush, and open your eyes.

Forget about these has-beens. Obama owns it now. It is the Oboma Depression.

[DavidGC]

But -- It was Frank, Dodd and the rest of that crowd that created the mess.
But -- the weak-kneed republicans went along with it.
But -- we had 6-1/2 years of a great economy under Bush.
But -- Bush's people should have seen it coming and stopped it.
But -- Obama is only going to make it worse with his so-called Stimulus.
But -- if you don't want a government solution, why was it OK for Bush to hand out billions?
And on, and on, and on . . .

There seems to be enough Kool-aid to go around here.

A pox on ALL their houses. They ALL forgot they were dealing with real people's lives and not just votes counted on election day.

But -- it is WE who keep electing the same crowd over and over and over.

DGC

[Morgan Paul]

Originally Posted by DavidGC

But -- It was Frank, Dodd and the rest of that crowd that created the mess.
But -- the weak-kneed republicans went along with it.
But -- we had 6-1/2 years of a great economy under Bush.
But -- Bush's people should have seen it coming and stopped it.
But -- Obama is only going to make it worse with his so-called Stimulus.
But -- if you don't want a government solution, why was it OK for Bush to hand out billions?
And on, and on, and on . . .

There seems to be enough Kool-aid to go around here.

A pox on ALL their houses. They ALL forgot they were dealing with real people's lives and not just votes counted on election day.

But -- it is WE who keep electing the same crowd over and over and over.

DGC

I agree with you.

[Christian Van H]

Originally Posted by Morgan Paul

Forget about these has-beens. Obama owns it now. It is the Oboma Depression.

No Sir. WE own it now. While we all worked hard every day, day after day, the people we elected to run our Country ran it into the ground. It started with a fraudulent war, and never looked back from there. Our last administration did not have our best interests at heart. Please do not blame this mess on our newly elected President. You can agree or disagree on his stimulus plan... that's our right as Americans, but please remember who was at the helm when we hit the iceberg. Forget about these has-beens? I WILL NEVER FORGET THESE LAST EIGHT YEARS. NEVER.

[amytom]

Just as I will never forget about the things I had to do under Clinton Most of which can't be discussed. Ever.

[Christian Van H]

Monica, is that you?

[amytom]

Kinda felt like it. I normally like to be kissed before I'm ^%#&ed.

[schoonerdog]

Ok, one bit of optimism, with some numbers behind it. If you look at the case/shiller index for the last 20 years you'll see that real estate appreciates at a fairly normal trend line of around 25-50% every 10 years or so. If you then trend that normal line of growth beyond 2000 you'll see that the bubble we're in has largely deflated in the US and will reach normal levels by around May. By that I mean it will reach a value comparable to levels of historic growth without the bubble. If you look at price/rent ratios, it's the same spike and same point of equalibrium. If you look at affordability indexes, again, same spike and we've now returned to normal in most of the country with the notable exception of DC.

Our problem is that we tend to be emotional cannonballs, we believe the round of good times will continue indefinitely despite all of the evidence of a bubble, and then when the stuff starts hitting the fan, we tend to think it will never end and go off the deep end despite evidence of normalization.

So, good news for the US. In other parts of the world it's just begun (canada, new zealand...) so they're in for a good multiyear sting ahead of them with the same effects, banks loosing capital, needing to contract $10 of loans for every $1 of asset price depreciation, etc. And many banks are much less capitalized than the United States. Europe tends to have capital to loan ratios of 1/2 to 1/5th the United States, so they are in a world of hurt.

Better news? Technology is getting ready to make power more affordable from more sources then ever before. It's here, it's being produced, and it's truely revolutionary from a capital efficiency point of view. Look at nanosolar as one example. This will help quite a bit in years to come. So not everything is bad, but personally our cruising budget has basically been destroyed. Never really a chance to put it into real estate as real estate as real estate was devaluing too and you couldn't rent out a property to cover the mortgage (at least here in MD).

So, I'll be working forever, and most of our hopes for cruising are on hold indefinitely, but it's not the end of the world I think. I think....

[Morgan Paul]

Forget about these has-beens? I WILL NEVER FORGET THESE LAST EIGHT YEARS. NEVER.

I am sorry man you are caught in irons. Try to get moving.

[anotherT34C]

Human beings got ourselves into this mess by being human beings. The sooner we realize that the problem is human nature, the better.

FTR, the TaoJones Report is always pretty credible. He explains what's wrong with the system, rather than lamely attempting to pin political blame. I think most of us are well past the point where we'll continue to fall for that.

[rexposeidon]

6 years ago mywife and I started planning for our retirement. 3 years ago we began making huge steps towards securing it. Real estate investments, 401k, high interest savings etc. Now facing the reality that because I have been transfered my realestate investments wont have matured but lost ground, 401k is in the tank because of the market, and high interest savings means less than 3% (but at least it's better than a conventional bank account) and is actually the only thing that will save me from bankruptcy whenI have to sell my properties...
My only solid investments have been in weapons. I have bought and sold several pieces that have doubled in value in the last year (fear is a friend of mine).
IF everyone would stop panicking, pull their collective heads out of their butts and stop thinking the turd they're holding is solid gold. stop buying things that are not worth the ego inflated price (read previous real estate market some of you are responsible for {I bought in a market that was un-affected by the ballon market [you have to shop responsibly]}). STOP PANICKING! BUY something small. Save more. Eat their veggies, we'll get through this. The Obama stimulus IS necessary only beause the states didn't take care of the gifts (read the former New Deal and the Eisenhower interstate projects) given them because infra-structure MUST be maintained and evolve as technology evolves. Now it has become a security and well being issue so again the feds have to save the states. So the Feds must step in when the greater good must be saved. IF the several states and the People would behave responsibly in the manner in which the founding fathers intended we wouldn't have the culture of ****ing each other over and we wouldn't be in this crisis to begin with.


SO as far as crusing goes, it is the ultimate in capitalism; like the buccaneers of old, you must find a friendly port where you can get permanent repairs/refits when you need them, you should be able to fix most things yourself... so maybe a wooden boat isn't a bad idea.
You must learn to fish for meat and trade for what you can't provide for yourself, (this isn't any different than 1 year, 100 years or 1000 years ago, it is part of the heritage we all love). Gold is still the most respected currency worldwide. You can always trade services if you have skills outside of an office, not everyone needs a lawyer.
Be ready to defend/protect yourself when you find yourself in an unfortunate place/circumstance. Hell you'll need to do this at home too.
Sorry for adding to the rant but, it is the panic that makes the media richer, the working man poorer and everyone else just plain scared. Remember the movie Wargames, the only way to win is not to play.
Someone here has the name of Tao, time to re-read it brother, and remember seek the path of water.

[jimking100]

Originally Posted by MoonlightShadow

Back last year, there was a thread "Good destinations in event of global economic depression?" It started with something like "with predictions of an economic collapse in the fourth quarter of 2008..." and so on...

Now, six months on, how do we Cruisers and aspiring Cruisers, feel that future directions will take us? Are we in a collapse? Is a collapse still coming? How will we deal with the recession as Cruisers? Is the recession realling affecting us? Are any people becoming Cruisers as a direct result of the recession? How long will it last? Are we becoming a more tight-knit community as a result of it? How is it affecting us both now and in the future? Would our Cruise Destinations alter?

Is there a danger in developing an almost survivealist attitude? Pension Plans have suffered, sometimes severely, and this must have an effect on many of us planning to retire and cruise. In my personal case, the drop in house prices initially meant that I could no longer afford the dream boat I wanted, and I must settle for something smaller, more economical to run, and so on. However, boat prices have recently softened, and it's becoming more of a buyer's market. But now, I also find I have concentrated much more on making the boat as self-sufficient as possible (A don't fully rely on Marinas concept) in terms of fuel, energy, waste and water requirements etc. And, I have even changed my earlier global aspirations to a more realistic (for me) itinerary.

I have experienced the 1980s and 1990s recessions, here in the UK. But this one is so different, as interest rates have gone down rather than up!!! My feelings are that with all the extra Government borrowings, something has to crack, and that it will be more than a year or two before we are out of this one. I am very . Am I alone with these thoughts? How do you feel the present and future climate will directly effect the Cruising World?

The thread has drifted from MoonlightShadow's original post to "how to earn a PH.D in economics". My personal story is the "perfect storm" of unfortunate circumstances leading to a situation in which I thought I could survive...that is until my 401K dissappeard. Now I'm looking at a small retirement ($2000US per month) and wondering about MoonlightShadow's original question.
What effect is this having on future plans for cruising? Where to go and what to do? What would be the most economic cruising destinations? In a recent article, Jimmy Cornell said that budget cruising no longer exists. Do forum members agree? If not, what do you know?

[Christian Van H]

Jim, I read the same article, and wondered where he was coming from too. Jimmy knows his stuff, but something like half the world lives on less than $5.00 a day...There must be places abroad that are conducive to cheaper cruising...

BTW, I just spoke with a friend in the DR. The average hard working mans pay is under $9.00 a day. You would be a King with your reduced income!

[svHyLyte]

Christian: "The blame for our current debacle lays heavily and squarely on Bush, Cheny, and their cronies."

There is no doubt that the presidency of “GeeDubyah” proved a disaster and that during his unfortunate tenure, many of the most prominent Republican's likewise sold themselves, their party and their constituents for a few pieces of silver. However, GeeDubyah's presidency now resides on the trash heap of history where it belongs, alongside the rotting carcasses of the administrations of Carter, Hoover et al. Many of the remaining Republicans seemed willing to get along by going along—being “bipartisan” on everything but the war, itself a thoroughly botched effort to no useful end, and thereby virtually ensured an election defeat in ‘08.

Notably, however, One cannot excuse the crimes of one with the crimes of another, and that was neither my point nor objective. To cure a disease one must identify its source, which was, at its heart, experiments in social engineering via governmental intervention in financial markets to “Spread the Wealth”. Too much to that end in one case (CRA though there are cogent arguments in favor of that); and, too little to that end in another (FNMA/FHLMC, where the facts are irrefutable.) Further governmental meddling, which has the subtlety of a meat ax will serve no good end.

The relationship of this thread to Cruising holds only to the extent that the economic situation adversely affects all sailors at least in the US and, for many, their very ability to continue. Many of the people we know now have their boats up for sale, and particularly those unfortunate enough to still owe money on them. Many of our friends, older people that thought they would be able to relax in their final years and do a little cruising perhaps, will not be able to do so, ever—and more than a few are being forced back into the work force just to survive, having been all but wiped out in the Madoff scam and others, that the SEC “overlooked”.

If I were a young man, contemplating the question of whether to GO Small and Go Now; or to delay for the bigger, better boat, later, I think the answer is clear. As to where, friends of ours recently returned from 8 months on the Rio Dulce where they were able to live comfortably on a fraction of what they spend here and are now preparing to return. Another friend and his wife have taken up residence in Nevis and are happy with that and the relatively inexpensive life-style there. It seems there are many land’s of opportunity relatively close at hand.

FWIW...

s/v HyLyte

[slomotion]

Originally Posted by rexposeidon

Someone here has the name of Tao, time to re-read it brother, and remember seek the path of water.

You mean the Tao Te Ching? As in: "He who speaks does not know."?