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Old 02-03-2010, 11:34   #31
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The Chesapeake froze over in the early 70's l heard it came close again this year. Everyone here in Abaco say's it is the coldest in 20 years. A few years from now we will be pondering the heat wave.
Europe went through three periods of mini ice ages in the 16, 17 and 1800s, and the Thames froze over, long before the industrial revolution, long before man made CFCs, cars, planes and the world population was only a fraction of what it is now.

So how can anyone prove its man made.
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Old 02-03-2010, 14:26   #32
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So how can anyone prove its man made.
They can't but they continue to do it.
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Old 02-03-2010, 14:59   #33
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.....
I would have thought that if the doomsayers are as genuinely convinced as they claim they would be proposing the obvious solution....of a cull, rather than simply ever more complex taxes (from Joe public) and subsidies (to freinds & family). ............. - but if the Planet and all human civilisation is genuinely at risk would be the obvious solution to depopulate.
Two points

1) My more optimistic point. Without debating the validity it is undoubtedly true that many/most well meaning scientist in the field believe it is true. MANY believe that we are about to or already have created an irrevocable change. They may be wrong, they may be right but they are sincere. Therefore I conclude that it is prudent to take all reasonable measures. And there are other benefits that go along with it, reducing our reliance on expensive foreign oil for example.

2) My more pessimistic point is addressed by Dave above, the root of the problem, and many more is simple over population. Simple math tells you that unlimited growth is not possible. We can learn to control population ourselves - I peg the chances at that as less than zero. Or Nature will create a cull, of her chosen nature. That will not be pretty. If the cull happens soon enough we won't have to worry about Global Warming.

Dave, no one will make the list. Not humanly possible, that is why I am pessimistic. Also is why a lot of Doomers/Prepers don't talk much about it, it is like talking about controlling the wind, can't be done. But, like it or not, gales come.

Nature will make the list. The only question is will you and I make Nature's list?

And, just for the record, I don't think the "ever more complex taxes (from Joe public) and subsidies (to freinds & family)" is an answer either. This is just greenwashing and I agree with your instincts. Mostly a bunch of BS.
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Old 02-03-2010, 15:11   #34
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Yup, no joke. I've been watching this all winter. Temperature in Bonavista, Newfoundland, where I have my boat, has been 30F +/- 4F almost all winter.

Pack ice scarce off Eastern Canada

Lack of ice could hurt seal population

Last Updated: Monday, March 1, 2010 | 4:59 PM N





"Yes, there's only water around the island. There's no ice at all around the island. There's no ice at all," said veteran mariner Jean-Claude Lapierre. "I'm 69 years old and I never saw that before. I talked to the older people and it's the first time they saw that."
Mebbe this is the year to try for the NW Passage
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Old 02-03-2010, 15:16   #35
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It snowed on my birthday Dec 4th here in Houston Tx. The temp here has averaged several degrees below what it has been at my old home in Victoria BC. A cold(relatively speaking) winter for Houston and a warm one for Vancouver. We only started to keep complex records of the weather in the recent past as if the information can somehow make us the masters of the world. Mother nature will do as she pleases and we have little or no say in the matter.

Don't believe me? Make it rain. Even a little bit. Whistle up the wind. If you can.

We will make a pretty good stain with our passing, but we will pass.

EVERYTHING does..........m
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Old 02-03-2010, 15:17   #36
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S&S,

I was planning on Greenland but am still negotiating with Wife. Looks doubtful.

To be fair the weather up there has been really weird for a few years. '07 was record ice season, '08 record berg season (broke off from glaciers in warm '07.)

This year seems like it is heading to be another record low ice year like '07 so it would be a good time for a run.

Did you follow the guy who went through last year in a wooden Bristol Channel Cutter with his wife and two (young) teenage daughters for crew?
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Old 02-03-2010, 16:24   #37
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Weather extremes this year are almost certainly due to el nino, not global warming. Al Gore, in this case, is not telling people the whole story. These half-truths that come out in the mainstream press are indicative of a politically-motivated storyline, not a scientific examination of facts:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2010/02/28/2010-02-28_dont_believe_white_lies_says_al_gore_recordbrea king_snow_is_due_to_global_warmin.html

The global warming crowd has a marketing problem. DC, and much of the eastern US was buried in snow this year. Not that this is a representative sample of world climate, but it makes news and hits the politicians where they live. The global warming debate will rage on--lies, damn lies and statistics. What makes me happy is that there is going to be a better debate. Global warming, for a time, evoked a religion. If you were a scientist and didn't sign on to the mainstream interpretation, you were ridiculed. Here's an example of an alternate theory that was roundly dismissed using "statistics":
Assessment on Global Warming and Total Solar Irradiance
Some of the behind the scenes statistical manipulation has come out via the East Anglia email scandal. For instance:
From: Kevin Trenberth (US National Center for Atmospheric Research). To: Michael Mann. Oct 12, 2009
"The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't... Our observing system is inadequate"
Prof Trenberth appears to accept a key argument of global warming sceptics - that there is no evidence temperatures have increased over the past 10 years.

The public has been barraged by warnings from scientists for whom global warming due to human activity is a foregone conclusion. Perhaps now we'll have a more honest debate instead of a righteous crusade. That's what science is supposed to be about.

Brett

BTW: I think global warming from human activity is plausible, just not proven. Munkey's explanation fits far better with the phenomenon Gnitfar described.
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Old 03-03-2010, 06:04   #38
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... Some of the behind the scenes statistical manipulation has come out via the East Anglia email scandal. For instance:
From: Kevin Trenberth (US National Center for Atmospheric Research). To: Michael Mann. Oct 12, 2009
"The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't... Our observing system is inadequate"
Prof Trenberth appears to accept a key argument of global warming sceptics - that there is no evidence temperatures have increased over the past 10 years...
Trenberth’s comment has been taken out of context, and cynically twisted into misleading the ignorant.

Here’s a more complete version of that dialogue:
http://junkscience.com/FOIA/mail/1255523796.txt

And a response from Kevin Trenberth:
“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.”

This refers to the inability of our current observations from satellites and in situ to account for where all the energy has gone. A paper on this is available here:

Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [PDF]

This paper tracks the effects of the changing Sun, how much heat went into the land, ocean, melting Arctic sea ice, melting Greenland and Antarctica, and changes in clouds, along with changes in greenhouse gases. We can track this well for 1993 to 2003, but not for 2004 to 2008. It does NOT mean that global warming is not happening, on the contrary, it suggests that we simply can’t fully explain why 2008 was as cool as it was, but with an implication that warming will come back, as it has. In 2008 there was a La Nina event. We now have an El Nino underway.

Kevin Trenberth"


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Old 03-03-2010, 07:38   #39
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My point exactly. Lies, damn lies, and statistics. The lack of transparent scientific debate on this subject is appalling.

Brett
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Old 03-03-2010, 08:53   #40
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My point exactly. Lies, damn lies, and statistics. The lack of transparent scientific debate on this subject is appalling.

Brett
Aye... and even if true.. one cannot do anything about it....
Who gives a S#it anyway...
Lets go SAILING.....
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Old 03-03-2010, 10:52   #41
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I'd love to see Puget Sound get warm enough so I could go snorkling and spear fishing with a mask and fins and not freeze to death!
Oh, and as long as I'm wishing, Dorado!
The algae blooms would be so bad that visibility would drop to about twelve inches.
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Old 03-03-2010, 11:00   #42
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A movie was made many years ago with this same plot, but with a different scenario.
It was called "The Music Man".
The globull warming problem was called "Our kids are playing Pool!"

Oh, we got Trouble! Right here in River City! With a capital T that rhymes with P that stands for Pool!!

I agree this subject won't ever be proven one way or the other...
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Old 03-03-2010, 11:03   #43
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Trying to argue that a localized cooling incident is representative of a global cooling, or lack of a general warming, is a good example of the failure of logic, reason, and common sense.

The overall evidence, from worldwide receding glaciers (as but one example), is overwhelming that a general heating trend is in effect, cold east coast spring notwithstanding.

The cause of this general heating is admittedly subject to much debate.

But those who argue from a specific incident (the cool spring on the east coast) that there is no global warming in effect offer no argument any more cogent than those making the opposite argument on account of the unusually warm spring here in the Pacific Northwest.

You can't go from the specific to the general unless you take ALL the specifics into account. Seems kind of obvious from my perspective.
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Old 03-03-2010, 11:05   #44
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Here's a good resource for climate-change deniers... and those of us who talk to them. Skeptical Science: Examining Global Warming Skepticism Click on "Arguments", scroll down and click on your favorite for a good read.

Kirk
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Old 03-03-2010, 11:11   #45
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I think people get confused by the difference between a global heating trend and an accompanying increase in global temperature volatility.

On account of the the latter, certain parts of the globe will necessarily experience cooler temperatures despite an overall warming trend.

The ability to conceptualize to an overarching general conclusion that the differs from one's concrete experience apparently eludes many people.
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