Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

[neilpride]

Originally Posted by NoTies

I believe she was responding to an attack, not making one. ANd making a legitimate observation in the process. Ad Hominem.

I remember post in the Pam cyclone Thread , and seems you stay there tied to the concrete? ,, wonder why you don't leave the island to outrun the worst,,, and also wonder if you manage before to outrun a big cane at sea?

[DsquareD]

Originally Posted by NoTies

Is there any reason why the personal attacks and belittling comments have been reserved for GoingWalkAbout and yet nothing has been directed at me who has been saying essentially the same thing. I didn't think CF would be a place where sexism & misogyny was so blatantly evident.

I was wondering the same thing when I got lambasted for asking a simple question. I guess it's easy to pick on the new guy who doesn't know much.


Dennis

Sent from my iPhone using Cruisers Sailing Forum

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by NoTies

Is there any reason why the personal attacks and belittling comments have been reserved for GoingWalkAbout and yet nothing has been directed at me who has been saying essentially the same thing. I didn't think CF would be a place where sexism & misogyny was so blatantly evident.

Donald Trump Syndrome..??

[Blue Crab]

Without rereading/counting, my guess is that there are 3-4 intrepid sailors here who believe it wise to head to sea. Everyone else disagreed. My complaint had to do with, regardless of the argument, WAB hangs in there and fights back. The points have been discussed ad nauseum.I fail to see the point in carrying on and on and on.

Sure, I could switch channels but I've been waiting for the olive branch of agreeing to disagree but it's not happening. There's some point where some folks have to begin to question the motives and experience of the poster who won't give an inch. That "Admiral" remark was just locker room talk anyway. However, when a Beth Leonard talks, I listen.

For several days the models suggested that Matthew would do a U Turn before it hit Cape Hatteras. It did not, and indeed headed out to sea. Res ipsa loquitur.

[seaskip]

I've been watching this thread, and the storm track on earth.nullschool.net with a fair amount of dread since it started.
First, except for some time on billionaire boats I haven't done a lot of Bluewater miles. Second, I've never sailed through a cyclone/ hurricane, but I've sat in a concrete apartment block while a couple wandered around. And third, I'm fairly new to this forum, and don't know the personalities at play.
But. My 2 cents.
It's easy to be brave from a computer but how many of the folks advocating running, would load a bunch of family or friends onto their vessel, and gamble they had it all figured out?
Also, the timing of recommending this sort of action when, ( and I've only been to the area in question once) a weather event of this magnitude, is bearing down on our fellow yachties, seems at best insensitive and at worst life threatening.
And finally, my preference, and I'm not alone, is to avoid survival situations if at all possible. Risk management someone called it. So unless I was absolutely positive I could relocate my vessel without endangering myself and my crew, well I'd be doing my best to make her secure, and staying put.
And no. I don't think seamanship is dead, as some brave soul said. Sometimes seamanship means picking which battles to fight.
I really hope everyone and their boats are ok over there.

[Lodesman]

Originally Posted by neilpride

The boat and crew to me,, made the right decision, get out of Bahamas and sail to the continent,, quite diferent if you set sail to the open ocean ...

I'm glad you acknowledge that moving station ahead of a storm is doable. Based on educated guess, I think they made the plan when Matt was still mid or south Caribbean sea, but the models were all predicting its path over the Bahamas. Funny thing is, that at that point some of the models had Miami in the crosshairs, too. Clearly this was a strategy of mitigation vice elimination of the threat, and put them closer to transportation to high ground. FWIW, we spent a hurricane season one year at Freeport, for the exact same reasons - relatively protected hole and easy access to transport off the island. Fortunately we didn't have to deal with any close storms.

Back to what they did in the video, Freeport is a straight shot to Miami, whereas bugging out to the east would require driving towards the storm and having to cover a lot of ground to clear the islands to the east. OTOH, if a boat was in George Town, then another strategy might be called for. Escape to the west is complicated by the banks, but there's quick access to the ocean. While there is an airport there, flights are limited so flying out may not be an option. The few so-called hurricane holes would be filled beyond capacity; a fact that will become clear in due time as the community start getting pictures from the scene.

So if the option is to leave your boat, which may be your one and only home (and let's face it, may not be insured), to the storm, while you hunker down in whatever building is available as a storm shelter, in a low-lying cay with third-world building standards; or taking your boat out into the Atlantic then going southeast to avoid Nicole and head towards eastern DR or Puerto Rico - what would you do?

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by seaskip

I've been watching this thread, and the storm track on earth.nullschool.net with a fair amount of dread since it started.
First, except for some time on billionaire boats I haven't done a lot of Bluewater miles. Second, I've never sailed through a cyclone/ hurricane, but I've sat in a concrete apartment block while a couple wandered around. And third, I'm fairly new to this forum, and don't know the personalities at play.
But. My 2 cents.
It's easy to be brave from a computer but how many of the folks advocating running, would load a bunch of family or friends onto their vessel, and gamble they had it all figured out?
Also, the timing of recommending this sort of action when, ( and I've only been to the area in question once) a weather event of this magnitude, is bearing down on our fellow yachties, seems at best insensitive and at worst life threatening.
And finally, my preference, and I'm not alone, is to avoid survival situations if at all possible. Risk management someone called it. So unless I was absolutely positive I could relocate my vessel without endangering myself and my crew, well I'd be doing my best to make her secure, and staying put.
And no. I don't think seamanship is dead, as some brave soul said. Sometimes seamanship means picking which battles to fight.
I really hope everyone and their boats are ok over there.

Im Glad I dont live in your area, Mid coast of NSW has the worst weather in Australia, It has a mini Cyclone near all year round, Big storms there you cant hide from, as they go round in circles overnight,
It amazes me how you get the wind coming from all four directions at the same time,

I got wrecked there hiding from a storm from the North west, It Flattened Port Stephens at 10 PM, It came up from the south at 4 AM putting me up on the beach,
I was in Esmeralda cove, It was dead calm till 4 AM,
Every where else in OZ you get at least a couple of days with the wind in one direction,

[Lodesman]

Originally Posted by Blue Crab

That "Admiral" remark was just locker room talk anyway. However, when a Beth Leonard talks, I listen.

It was totally unnecessary - and goes against the "be nice" rule. What would it matter what her experience level is - we shouldn't try to intimidate or denigrate newbies, but just offer our wisdom (assuming we have any) and encourage them to stay in the community. Most of us, regardless of experience level, can only offer theoretical advice with this particular issue.

Originally Posted by Blue Crab

For several days the models suggested that Matthew would do a U Turn before it hit Cape Hatteras. It did not, and indeed headed out to sea.

I admit that I didn't keep an eagle eye on the forecasts, but from what I recall, only a few models had the storm doing a backwards recurve - it was the media that pushed this worse-case scenario.

[Blue Crab]

Originally Posted by Lodesman

It was totally unnecessary - and goes against the "be nice" rule. What would it matter what her experience level is - we shouldn't try to intimidate or denigrate newbies, but just offer our wisdom (assuming we have any) and encourage them to stay in the community. Most of us, regardless of experience level, can only offer theoretical advice with this particular issue.

I just found her approach argumentative. Nutin nice about that in my view. She had her forum and made her point again and again. I say again and again, at some point one wonders: " Wot's up wid dat?"

Longterm readers are well aware that hard-boiled brawlers come along now and then and want to fight it out with one and all. With my pornographic memory, I could name names here but I imagine everyone else can as well. It would be "totally unnecessary."


I admit that I didn't keep an eagle eye on the forecasts, but from what I recall, only a few models had the storm doing a backwards recurve - it was the media that pushed this worse-case scenario.

Come on, get real. I'm not tech savvy enough to pull up those "old" tracks but I think along about Friday all but one had it curving. My one and only point in mentioning it was that WAB's argument was that the forecasts are accurate enough to rely on to head to sea.

We've got a lot of real sailors with real seamanship skills here on the Eastern Seaboard. I wonder how many even considered heading off shore as a strategy. Speak up now please.

[barnakiel]

Making the offshore decision can be easier if you are on an island with plenty of ocean each way. But on Florida you are one side bound.

Part of the discussion here is a bit naive perhaps as no one (I think) suggested just lifting the boat and driving her 100 miles INSHORE.

Would not you agree this was a very safe bet given the forecasts?

It was certain the storm could curve. They all do. But how much it could curve was unknown until too late (unless you are Steve and Linda in their present boat). And so the offshore decision was not 'smart' or 'seamanlike', it was just a bet.

Make your bets and face the consequences. Count yourself lucky you came thru alive. Many did not.

Do not overvalue the relationship between your decisions and the final result. It is not so much your decision as it is pure luck. Maybe 50/50, at best.

b.

[Exile]

I think this is the important take-away from the thread, namely that there is no hard & fast rule, and one has to take into account not only the many variables but also factor in the risk/benefit analysis. That is the definition of proper seamanship in my mind.

As Crabby noted, most of the forecast tracks showed Matthew doubling back, and don't forget Nicole was and is still lurking out there the entire time. Most recent NHC forecast shows Nicole with 60 mph winds & strengthening to hurricane strength tomorrow. Looks like it's headed for Bermuda at this point.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Donald Trump Syndrome..??

Now THAT was funny. Impeccable timing too.

[neilpride]

Originally Posted by Lodesman

I'm glad you acknowledge that moving station ahead of a storm is doable. Based on educated guess, I think they made the plan when Matt was still mid or south Caribbean sea, but the models were all predicting its path over the Bahamas. Funny thing is, that at that point some of the models had Miami in the crosshairs, too. Clearly this was a strategy of mitigation vice elimination of the threat, and put them closer to transportation to high ground. FWIW, we spent a hurricane season one year at Freeport, for the exact same reasons - relatively protected hole and easy access to transport off the island. Fortunately we didn't have to deal with any close storms.

Back to what they did in the video, Freeport is a straight shot to Miami, whereas bugging out to the east would require driving towards the storm and having to cover a lot of ground to clear the islands to the east. OTOH, if a boat was in George Town, then another strategy might be called for. Escape to the west is complicated by the banks, but there's quick access to the ocean. While there is an airport there, flights are limited so flying out may not be an option. The few so-called hurricane holes would be filled beyond capacity; a fact that will become clear in due time as the community start getting pictures from the scene.

So if the option is to leave your boat, which may be your one and only home (and let's face it, may not be insured), to the storm, while you hunker down in whatever building is available as a storm shelter, in a low-lying cay with third-world building standards; or taking your boat out into the Atlantic then going southeast to avoid Nicole and head towards eastern DR or Puerto Rico - what would you do?

Hi,definitely east is not in my book, Luperon in the north side of DR can be a last option, better protected compared with the Bahamas and those hig hills make havoc in the hurricane , you know,, after 20 years in SXM I don't trust those funny NOAA models to much, Lenny come to my mind , I see lots of weird things in the form of inexpected new forescast model etc...
So with Nicole trying to play the Fujiwhara game with Matthew in the east my only option can be the continent, FL. No problem so far for me to exit the Exumas by a cut and work my way to Gun Cay and make a straight shoot to FL , done dozen of times... Low , flat isolated cays in the Bahamas is not a place for me, not even the so called hurricane holes.
So yes, West looks bright to me, better infrastructure, better communication, and overall better prepared for a bad Cane than Bahamas.

[TeddyDiver]

It might be enlightening to start a thread where we could follow hurricanes and make "decisions" based on real life weather data affecting on a virtual boat placed on the predicted path of a hurricane, what to do, where to find hurricane hole or where to run and see how wise our decisions turn out to be in the end of season. Kenomac would propably win but what happens to rest of us

[Lodesman]

Originally Posted by Blue Crab

Come on, get real. I'm not tech savvy enough to pull up those "old" tracks but I think along about Friday all but one had it curving. My one and only point in mentioning it was that WAB's argument was that the forecasts are accurate enough to rely on to head to sea.

Well let's put a bullet into that argument: Hurricane Matthew | Meteorologists use all models | News & Observer