Running From Weather

[pippatheskippa]

Fundamental ocean sailing training - the SW quadrant of a hurricane is the safest place if you get caught - see Antigua during Irma - if we had set sail 2 or 3 days ago we would have been well out of the way - it only takes 2 days to get to Grenada non-stop! We were lucky - we got the SW quadrant in Antigua - other islands not so lucky - the boats that have been wiped out in some of the islands were indeed charter boats - sadly not so in every case. The comment about if you think about reefing......if they tell you there's a Hurricane a comin' - clear out!

[maxingout]

My insurance policy has a named storm exclusion when I am out cruising, and that pretty much guarantees that I will be out of harms way when it's hurricane/cyclone season. That means I will be in Grenada or Trinidad in the Caribbean or New Zealand or Brisbane when I am in the Pacific.

[Mr B]

I lived in Queensland for a few years, We get on average, 6 Cyclones per year, And I have stood in the eye of one, Maryborough 1973, It flattened the whole area,
I also rode a bike thru the arse end of one, 10 inches of rain per hour, But no wind,
Putting to sea in my cat would be the safest for me, And just run before it,

What your all seem to be missing is the fact that cyclones or Hurricanes for those up north,
Are all very well advertised a week in advance, You have plenty of time to leave and be well out of its way,
You are not putting to sea in the middle of the Cyclone, Your putting to sea in generally calm waters,
Usually 4 days before the cyclone gets near you,
There is usually no wind before a cyclone gets near you, Two or three days before hand,
So it will be motoring in usually calm seas,

even 4 knots on the motor will have you 200 miles away from the Cyclones path in two days,

A Cyclone travels at between 4 and 12 MPH, Thats the whole shebang, 300 miles wide,
Approx for the Pedantic,

If you cant sail clear of any big named storm, There is some thing wrong with you,

If you are anchored up a river or creek, After a few bends in the river to avoid the storm surge,
Very good safe spot amongst the tall mangroves,
Make sure you leave the river before the flood waters come down,

Hyacinth or debris coming down the river will pull your boat under as it catches on your anchor chain,
110 boats were lost in the Burdekin river at Bundaberg, due to this Debri on their anchor chains,
Totally undamaged by the Cyclone that went thru 3 days before,

How many people who have put to sea before a cyclone or Hurricane hits, Have been lost at sea,
How many boats in Marina's could actually, safely put to sea as well, ???????????

I live in Melbourne now and we dont have named storms down here,
But 60 to 80 MPH winds are very common, Straight up from the Antartic,
Two or three days at a time,

It depends on how much your boats worth too,

Smashed up in a marina or putting about safely on a very big open ocean,

[Just Another Sa]

Originally Posted by Mr B

What your all seem to be missing is the fact that cyclones or Hurricanes for those up north,
Are all very well advertised a week in advance,

That depends on where you are. If it only takes 4 days from the hurricane/typhoon/cyclone to reach your position from where it forms and it intensifies quickly enough to already be in cyclone category at the time it meets you, it won't be advertised week in advance, because that would mean they could predict it's path 3 days before it even forms!
The solution of course involves not to be in such a place at the hurricane/cyclone season.

Originally Posted by Mr B

So it will be motoring in usually calm seas,
even 4 knots on the motor will have you 200 miles away from the Cyclones path in two days,

No, only 200 miles away from where you took off. The path of the eye can be closer, and the high wind zone even closer, even right at you position if the prediction of the path fails. Better to motor at 6 knots at least, and have enough fuel for 500 miles at least, if relying on motoring.

Originally Posted by Mr B

A Cyclone travels at between 4 and 12 MPH, Thats the whole shebang, 300 miles wide,
Approx for the Pedantic,

12 mph is 2.6 times suggested motoring speed of 4 knots. If the cyclone follows your boat at that speed escaping is not an option, selecting another safe haven to reduce probability of being hit by the cyclone still might be, provided it's close enough to get there in time.

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by Just Another Sa

That depends on where you are. If it only takes 4 days from the hurricane/typhoon/cyclone to reach your position from where it forms and it intensifies quickly enough to already be in cyclone category at the time it meets you, it won't be advertised week in advance, because that would mean they could predict it's path 3 days before it even forms!
The solution of course involves not to be in such a place at the hurricane/cyclone season.


No, only 200 miles away from where you took off. The path of the eye can be closer, and the high wind zone even closer, even right at you position if the prediction of the path fails. Better to motor at 6 knots at least, and have enough fuel for 500 miles at least, if relying on motorin


12 mph is 2.6 times suggested motoring speed of 4 knots. If the cyclone follows your boat at that speed escaping is not an option, selecting another safe haven to reduce probability of being hit by the cyclone still might be, provided it's close enough to get there in time.

4 knots is about the slowest any boat will travel at,
your travelling at 90 degrees to the storm or even 180 degrees,
How the hell is the storm going to get any where near you,
I have 3000 Nmiles of open ocean sailing,
Stay behind your PC, Its safer for you,

[Just Another Sa]

Originally Posted by maxingout

My insurance policy has a named storm exclusion when I am out cruising, and that pretty much guarantees that I will be out of harms way when it's hurricane/cyclone season. That means I will be in Grenada or Trinidad in the Caribbean or New Zealand or Brisbane when I am in the Pacific.

What about Ivan 2004 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ivan
Formed September 2, and hit Grenada September 7?
Or
Emily 2005 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Emily_(2005) formed July 10 and hit Grenada July 14?

only 4...5 days from forming to being hit, not much of time to move elsewhere, and prediction of the path not what actual route for the hurricane was. Possible to avoid?
Maybe if reacting fast enough and making correct decisions, but avoiding certainly not guaranteed to be successful if done after it forms.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Just Another Sa

What about Ivan 2004 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ivan
Formed September 2, and hit Grenada September 7?
Or
Emily 2005 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Emily_(2005) formed July 10 and hit Grenada July 14?

only 4...5 days from forming to being hit, not much of time to move elsewhere, and prediction of the path not what actual route for the hurricane was. Possible to avoid?
Maybe if reacting fast enough and making correct decisions, but avoiding certainly not guaranteed to be successful if done after it forms.

What about, what if, no guarantees, what if, not much time, what if, 2004 Ivan, what if...... ???

[Just Another Sa]

Originally Posted by Mr B

4 knots is about the slowest any boat will travel at,
your travelling at 90 degrees to the storm or even 180 degrees,
How the hell is the storm going to get any where near you,

4 knots was your suggestion, not mine, and I consider it totally unsafe speed to escape a hurricane heading to once position.

Care to share how you define your directions so, that 180 degrees is safe?

Originally Posted by Mr B

I have 3000 Nmiles of open ocean sailing,
Stay behind your PC, Its safer for you,

Good for you.
There are plenty of ways to be safe from hurricanes, staying behind PC is not one of them if said PC is located at any area where cyclones might exist.

[Just Another Sa]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

What about, what if, no guarantees, what if, not much time, what if...... ???

What part didn't you understand?
Locating oneself outside all of the areas where cyclones hit during their season is safe, while moving out of their path only then they are predicted to go where you are located might work if done smartly, but guarantees nothing.

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by Just Another Sa

4 knots was your suggestion, not mine, and I consider it totally unsafe speed to escape a hurricane heading to once position.

Care to share how you define your directions so, that 180 degrees is safe?


Good for you.
There are plenty of ways to be safe from hurricanes, staying behind PC is not one of them if said PC is located at any area where cyclones might exist.

The storm is in the north, Your going south,
The storm is in the south, Your heading north,
Thats 180 degrees last time I looked,

You dont read very well either,
I said 4 knots is about the slowest any boat will sail at, most will sail well above that,
I average 7 knots, Motor or sail, cruising, That puts me 330 miles away in two days,

From start to finish, a Cyclone or Hurricane lasts about seven days all up,

From start to finish when it screams across the beach and blows itself out a day or so later,
3 days later, the floods come down from inland and hit the beaches with every thing in tow,
I have lost count of the Cyclones Ive been thru, Most were piss and wind, But full of flying shrapnel, Stay inside, Its safer,

[Just Another Sa]

Originally Posted by Mr B

The storm is in the north, Your going south,
The storm is in the south, Your heading north,
Thats 180 degrees last time I looked,

Of course, just as is :
The storm is moving northwest, You'r heading southeast ...
The storm is in the southeast , You'r heading northwest ...
The storm is in the southeast and heading towards northwest , You'r heading ...

Originally Posted by Mr B

You dont read very well either,
I said 4 knots is about the slowest any boat will sail at, most will sail well above that,

I read just fine thank you, but you refered to the wrong post #80, that you wrote after mine #79!!!
Before that you wrote on post #78:

There is usually no wind before a cyclone gets near you, Two or three days before hand,
So it will be motoring in usually calm seas,

even 4 knots on the motor will have you 200 miles away from the Cyclones path in two days,

A Cyclone travels at between 4 and 12 MPH, Thats the whole shebang, 300 miles wide,
Approx for the Pedantic,

Stay inside, Its safer,

No thanks. I won't stay inside, neither am I going to anticipate how you are going to reply, and react in this post in that future post, like you suggested already with your comment on my reading skills.

[valhalla360]

I think the whole premise is misunderstanding the situation.
- Most cruisers are not in hurricane areas during hurricane season as insurance prohibits it.
- Most of the boats are either charter or stored cruising boats.
- The few cruisers there, slipped out south when the storm first formed and long before people started paying attention.
- There are always a few crazy/stupid people who stay anyway.

The end result is it looks like 95%+ of the boats just sat and took it but the vast majority either did get out of dodge or didn't have crew available.

Keep in mind a lot of the charter staff have other duties to prepare and then you run into the issue...if there are 100 boats and 5 crew...which boats do you take and who pays for the crew to do so?

While it's cheaper for the insurance company, it's out of the box thinking for an insurance company to pay a crew $5-10k to move a boat in the hopes of missing a storm. They run into the problem if it's a week out, they don't want to pay for the move if the storm won't hit the area but if it's a day or two out, it's too late.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Mr B

I live in Melbourne now and we dont have named storms down here,
But 60 to 80 MPH winds are very common, Straight up from the Antartic,
Two or three days at a time,

It depends on how much your boats worth too,

Smashed up in a marina or putting about safely on a very big open ocean,

Sorry , but your credibility just flew straight out the window.....

Very common??

[poiu]

I'm for getting out of town. I sometimes sail well into the hurricane season in the E Caribbean. My plan is to sail away if one were to come. The more I look at it, the more I am sure it is a correct plan. This is not so for all areas because geography sometimes restricts your options.

I watched and studied Irma and a few others hurricanes and each time sailing away would have been the best thing to do. The amazing thing about Irma was how moderate the conditions were in the best quadrant. (To the SW or SE with Irma as with most Caribbean hurricanes ). There is great data from wind and buoy reports, but clearest of all is that Irma destroyed Barbuda, yet left Antigua 25nm to the south almost untouched. If you had set off from Barbuda just a half day ahead of arrival in the correct direction you would have had some fairly strong winds 100nm away, but will have been completely safe. Martinique had 30kt when Barbuda had a Cat5++

Another example. There was plenty of time to leave Miami when Irma was approaching Cuba. You could have gone West of Cuba leaving as late as 2 days ahead of the US landfall and have been in moderate conditions the whole time. When Irma hit the Keys the wind was only 20kt in the gusts 300 nm to the SW.

I think it is important to have the means of getting weather data at sea in this plan.

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Sorry , but your credibility just flew straight out the window.....

Very common??

Try the weather burue here, I suppose they tell lies too,
BOM, Its on google,
damaging winds to 120 KPH here last week, Thats about 70 MPH,
They are quite common here and very damaging,