destroyed cat

[a64pilot]

I think just like real estate, it’s location.
First pic shows PC Marina and just less than half a mile away Massilina Bayou Marina, it to the two O’clock, its much better protected.
Second picture is Massilina Bayou closer up.

[Group9]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I think just like real estate, it’s location.
First pic shows PC Marina and just less than half a mile away Massilina Bayou Marina, it to the two O’clock, its much better protected.
Second picture is Massilina Bayou closer up.Attachment 179042Attachment 179043

Yep. Boats tied up in a marina can take a lot of wind. What they can’t take is five to ten foot waves rolling over and through the marina.

Hurricane level fetch is a bitch.

I would have thought more people would have just tied off in some of those little creeks and sloughs off of the ICW around White City.

[a64pilot]

US Navy’s Naval support activity’s small Marina and even the RV and Boat storage yard seems to have suffered zero damage

[cyan]

Originally Posted by Group9

Looking at the forecast, I figured both Panama City marinas were going to be boat deathtraps. Sorry about your cat, but not the least bit surprised. Pretty much nothing in a marina survived Katrina in Mississippi. Live and learn.

When did you figure this? Three days in advance? You're better than the experts.

As A64pilot already mentioned, this hurricane came out of nowhere. It went from a tropical storm near the western tip of Cuba to almost a Cat 5 monster at landfall two days later. TWO.

The accuracy of a hurricane path forecast has incresed by huge amounts in the last 20 years. The accuracy of an intensity forecast has not. Sure the water was warmer than usual, but the forecasted wind shear was predicted to knock it down to a Cat 1/2. That did not happen. This thing took almost everyone by surprise, including the experts.

[a64pilot]

Not to belabor it, but the Marina never was considered to be very secure from a storm, at all. However it had several other amenities that I liked, secured docks, right downtown, old town PC, not the teenie bopper beach, excellent sailing ten Ft off of the dock, I usually motored just enough to clear the Marina and was sailing.
Excellent access to the Gulf, and water depth that was never an issue, and clean clear water to Dive your own boat in.

Just this storm came out of nowhere and blew up fast, I hope the death toll stays as low as it is, but I’m surprised not more lost their lives.
Marina Storm statement attached.

[Group9]

Originally Posted by cyan

When did you figure this? Three days in advance? You're better than the experts.

As A64pilot already mentioned, this hurricane came out of nowhere. It went from a tropical storm near the western tip of Cuba to almost a Cat 5 monster at landfall two days later. TWO.

The accuracy of a hurricane path forecast has incresed by huge amounts in the last 20 years. The accuracy of an intensity forecast has not. Sure the water was warmer than usual, but the forecasted wind shear was predicted to knock it down to a Cat 1/2. That did not happen. This thing took almost everyone by surprise, including the experts.

You guys don’t get many hurricanes. Where I live, we do. We have learned to hope for fhe best and plan for the worst.

you think people who lost their boats this time won’t adopt that attitude next time? I bet a lot of them do.

[cyan]

Originally Posted by Group9

You guys don’t get many hurricanes. Where I live, we do. We have learned to hope for fhe best and plan for the worst.

you think people who lost their boats this time won’t adopt that attitude next time? I bet a lot of them do.

I think I see your point.
However, the MAIN lesson learned for Michael might be that the PATH forecast can be much better than the INTENSITY forecast. Panama City and Mexico Beach were a bullseye from 48 hours out for a Cat 2 hurricane. 48 hours is short notice compared to other storms, but 90 knots with a 2 meter surge might be a hunker-down decision. Remove windage, secure the boat, and find a safe place on shore. Big storm.

135 knots is different. This is more like a big foundation-scraping tornado.
The force of wind increases with the SQUARE of the velocity. a 135 knot blow delivers much more than twice the force of a 90 knot blow.

This is what Michael delivered and this was WAY more than the forecast only 2 days before landfall.
Yes, we could all learn something from this.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by GRIT

It's upside down, but there's no indication it's wrecked. If it's all in one piece, you'll just have to do some cleaning, and replacing equipment and wiring. The engines should be fine if you can get it out of the water soon. If your not interested in doing the work, you should be able to sell it fairly easily. If you can't, send me a note, and I'll take a look at it myself.

Cheers.
Paul.

I'll start by giving the OP my sympathy. Hopefully the insurance company meets their obligations without unnecessary hassle and you can move forward relatively quickly.

But the idea that the boat isn't wrecked is silly. It may be possible for the right person to bring it back from death but it's not just flip it over, flush the engines and go back to cruising. Engines, electronics, mast and rigging, all the woodwork and upholstery are likely trashed. I'm sure the hulls and deck have lots of damage (if lucky mostly cosmetic but likely some serious fiberglass work).

In a marina, it's actually a lot easier to flip a cat. In open water, a boat can slide downwind reducing the overturning forces. In a marina, dock lines, the bottom and other boats can stop the boat from giving way before the wind. (try flipping a 10lb block of ice on a smooth marble floor by pushing on the side...then push it up against a bump and see how much easier it is to flip)

[brantleychuck]

Originally Posted by cyan

When did you figure this? Three days in advance? You're better than the experts.



As A64pilot already mentioned, this hurricane came out of nowhere. It went from a tropical storm near the western tip of Cuba to almost a Cat 5 monster at landfall two days later. TWO.



The accuracy of a hurricane path forecast has incresed by huge amounts in the last 20 years. The accuracy of an intensity forecast has not. Sure the water was warmer than usual, but the forecasted wind shear was predicted to knock it down to a Cat 1/2. That did not happen. This thing took almost everyone by surprise, including the experts.

This hurricane did not come out of no where. Those of us who keep a close eye during the season were aware of this possibility almost two weeks in advance. I was on alert a week before in case I needed to fly out to save my boat again(Irma last year). What this storm did do was exceed expectations. Sort a of a worse case scenario. If you want to stay up to date on storms go to. Mikes weather. On face book

[cyan]

Originally Posted by brantleychuck

This hurricane did not come out of no where. Those of us who keep a close eye during the season were aware of this possibility almost two weeks in advance. I was on alert a week before in case I needed to fly out to save my boat again(Irma last year). What this storm did do was exceed expectations. Sort a of a worse case scenario. If you want to stay up to date on storms go to. Mikes weather. On face book

Okay, "almost 2 weeks" is pretty amazing. Please show us where in the world you get that kind of information. I'll subscribe. The earliest I recall is this:

8 days before landfall, it was an unorganized low pressure system, first appearing on NOAA images. On Oct 2 the National Hurricane Center in Miami gave this "disturbance" off the east coast of Costa Rica / Panama a "20% chance" of developing cyclonic activity. (image attached)

Two days later, on Oct 4, Mike's Weather showed a vague AccuWeather forecast that called for rough seas and tropical rain south of the Yucatan Peninsula / Cuba, with a "May Form" tag next to an arrow pointing to the northwest.

There were MANY more forecasts over the next few days that picked the target correctly but Cat 1/2 was the final intensity forecast. When I stated that "this came out of nowhere", I am simply quoting meteorologists who under estimated the intensity. Of course it came FROM somewhere. They are simply referring to the intensity. Rapid intensification is now getting closer study in the aftermath.

Tropical Storm Michael became a hurricane on Monday, Oct 8, 530 NM from landfall.
Hurricane Michael struck 48 hours later at almost Category 5.
Out of nowhere, indeed.

[rancher44]

Thanks for everyones input .
I may go y go down and try to recover my personal items

But the boat is too damaged for me to deal with the company sasid they would sail it bac to me for around 30kish

[EmeraldCoastSailor]

There was a cat on anchor in Smack Bayou across the bay that didn't make it either (flipped). It was a badass storm.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by rancher44

Thanks for everyones input .
I may go y go down and try to recover my personal items

But the boat is too damaged for me to deal with the company sasid they would sail it bac to me for around 30kish

And if you want to sell things off it that can't be damaged by water, including large sections of the hull (if foam cored), I'd be interested.

I'm in need of just about everything for a similar cat that was damaged. Please PM me to squeak some extra thousands out of the old boat you can use on a new boat.

I need it all. Doors, door hardware, foam cored panels, hatches, anchor, chain, sails, mast maybe? etc. Anything that can't be damaged by salt water, I'd buy from you. Cash.

[sailores35]

Originally Posted by Panama Red

Would it had made a difference?

My boat is in Norfolk VA, 5 hours one way trip. I’ve taken down the sails twice in the last 30 days for a hurricane/storm that did not materialize.

You owe it to your neighboring boats. I have weathered hurricanes on and off the boat, owned a Marina and can tell you it is one of the most irresponsible things to not do if there is an impending storm or one lives a significant distance from your boat, or leaves both unattended for long periods of time.

[rancher44]

Sold it back to the insurance company for 2/3 of what I had in it .