Is the Market Really this Bad ?

[Doodles]

This looks nice and I'll bet you could get it for $100K or less.

1982 Tayana Center Cockpit Sail Boat For Sale - www.yachtworld.com

[TomandAnitas34]

I'm of two perspectives just now. I think the market has rebounded by a few percent at this point. It is difficult to know as inflation is starting and it is difficult to know the actual value of a dollar. After all, gas is still 25 cents a gallon. Just has to be a pre 1964 silver quarter.

[sailingfool]

Originally Posted by TomandAnitas34

I'm of two perspectives just now. I think the market has rebounded by a few percent at this point. It is difficult to know as inflation is starting and it is difficult to know the actual value of a dollar. After all, gas is still 25 cents a gallon. Just has to be a pre 1964 silver quarter.

Looks more like stagflation. Inflation for things not measured by the CPI, and deflation for everything else.

BTW, coinflation.com gives a running PM value of the older coins.

I wish I were as optimistic as you, but I think we are just getting started. The interest rates cannot rise, or our debt burden becomes unmanageable (heh). But if we don't raise them, wealth flows out of the US in search of higher returns. We are in a liquidity trap, and the middle class jobs that made it possible over the last several decades are mostly gone. Probably for good. 3 million people fell off the unemployment stats in the last two months, and were no longer counted, so we had a net positive unemployment number. So much spin. Can't believe the market bought it.

Priced in real assets, we never had a recovery.
http://pricedingold.com

[CarinaPDX]

Sailingfool-

Welcome to another nightowl!

I agree that we are not nearly out of this mess, and quite possibly not even past the worst. As for the market, this appears to be a classic bear market rally - there is a very good chance that the bottom will fall out in the not-too-distant future. Or not.

But instead of worrying about that, get down to Astoria today and make an offer on the Peterson. Once out cruising your living expenses should drop and it really won't matter as much. The trick is to not obsess about the portfolio back home...

[sailingfool]

Originally Posted by Doodles

This looks nice and I'll bet you could get it for $100K or less.

1982 Tayana Center Cockpit Sail Boat For Sale - www.yachtworld.com

A really sweet boat. Looks very well kept.. I could easily see myself behind that wheel

[sailingfool]

Originally Posted by CarinaPDX

But instead of worrying about that, get down to Astoria today and make an offer on the Peterson. Once out cruising your living expenses should drop and it really won't matter as much. The trick is to not obsess about the portfolio back home...

Thanks for the welcome!

It's definitely tempting... :looks at daily planner:

[Patient]

I am getting both sides of it at the moment.

On one side I have been in the market for a Blue water cruiser for 2 years (Classic Double-ender), slowly taking my time finding the right match. In that time I have watched my dream boat fall from the $120k range to around $60k-$80k. I have seen 4 boats so far in person and was about 2 hours short of signing papers at one point. That time, while I was racing to the broker on the highway, a couple from Texas wired a deposit and I was SOL on a fantastic deal. I also am purchasing in cash and have no plans to finance. The broker told me, "Chances are that their financing will not go through so don't turn back just yet." sadly for me, it did.

On the other side I am selling a downtown property in a major US City that has been listed for 2 years. I have had too many potential buyer to count on fingers, each time I get to closing, the buyer's bank backs out on financing because the space is "Non-typical" which apparently freaks out banks these days. I have dropped down %30 of my asking price in the meantime.

Because I do not plan on financing my dreamboat, I havent seen this problem, but in terms of real estate, if someone isnt showing up with cash I basically count on it never happening. Is this the same case with boats? Is financing really difficult? Just about every broker I have talked to asks me if I plan on financing within the first 5 minutes.

[boatman61]

Here in Europe the brokers tend to be like car salesmen... they'll push a 'finance' at you then pimp the 'Finance House' that pays the best commision...
Boosts the pay packet...

[whiteH2Okayaker]

I am in the market and was told by a broker that it is "impossible" to get a loan on a 20yr old boat. We did qualify for a loan and hope to see the boat this weekend! You must have almost perfect credit, good debt to income ratio and the right lendor! Intrest rate is low on a 15yr note. I figure IF pricing goes up much at all it will still be smart to get a loan today!

[Doodles]

Originally Posted by whiteH2Okayaker

I am in the market and was told by a broker that it is "impossible" to get a loan on a 20yr old boat. We did qualify for a loan and hope to see the boat this weekend! You must have almost perfect credit, good debt to income ratio and the right lendor! Intrest rate is low on a 15yr note. I figure IF pricing goes up much at all it will still be smart to get a loan today!

That's not surprising. How much would you want to loan on a 20 year old sailboat? Since the boat is the collateral the lender has got to ask himself what will be boat be worth in 1, 5 or 10 years? That's a real crap shoot in today's economy don't you think?

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by Notpopeye

I wrote to Com-Pac and got the price list from Gerald Hutchins, one of the owners.

I also wrote to Seacraft Yachts, the manufacturer for Dana 24 and got the pricelist from them.

After I woke up (cause I passed out with the seemingly ridiculously high prices), I decided I better get a used boat.

Just because something costs a certain amount to build (with or without any profit) - doesn't automatically mean the item has a market value at that figure. "New" is fundamentaly the same as s/h when it comes to pricing (New is simply priced higher due to being unused and that likely meaning it is also better....albeit that not automatically true. (There are also kudos and conveniance factors to buying "new" - for many).

I could build someone a 40 foot boat. It would not be worth what it cost. and would also be rubbish!....would still be "new" though.

As always, you get what you pay for. or not .


The problem (for all of us) is when (too many) things cost more to make than the market (us!) can afford to buy or simply we value them at less than the selling price (for me things like a new BMW 7 series has always been in that Category - I could afford a new one, but for me even a new one is only worth around £5k! (or any higher s/h price - after 5 years).....fortunately for BMW (and actually also for me overall!) I am not the market they are aiming for!).............As an example, over here, our property market has dropped around 10%......but the market has essentially stagnated rather than collapsed - with transactions simply a fraction of what they once were (for the same reasons as everywhere else)....but the selling prices are not yet down to what the properties are actually worth nowadays - at the moment simply insufficient willing (aka forced!) sellers to move the market downwards. That may or may not change in the future......but sooner or later the property selling prices will match the market value (hopefully mostly from the market values moving upwards!)......it's economic gravity.

[Notpopeye]

Here is the dilemma, I have no doubts that the dollar will have a 30% or more decrease in value sometime within the next year or so. With that, things will drop in price but since our money has also decreased in value, it is a moot point.
Real Estate has dropped 30% or more over the past few years and I have little doubt it will drop another 30% over the next couple of years but with a devalued dollar, it also will not matter.
No one can fix this, what is the "new" administration going to do, cut spending? Not hardly, he can't or mass rioting will take place.
Sell what you have or borrow to the max may be the only way to prepare. I cannot see myself buying several years worth of food rations, banking water supplies and hunkering down in a bunker to outlast the backlash when our economy just cannot take anymore and it collapses.
I have zero debt, my house is paid for, my car is paid for and I want to buy a boat to live on. I tried to sell my house and had a buyer but just as someone above wrote, the buyer's financing created problems that resulted in no sale.
Think boats are "cheap" now, we are losing money on just about every other investment, why should boats be an exception?

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

Just because something costs a certain amount to build (with or without any profit) - doesn't automatically mean the item has a market value at that figure. "New" is fundamentaly the same as s/h when it comes to pricing (New is simply priced higher due to being unused and that likely meaning it is also better....albeit that not automatically true. (There are also kudos and conveniance factors to buying "new" - for many).

I could build someone a 40 foot boat. It would not be worth what it cost. and would also be rubbish!....would still be "new" though.

As always, you get what you pay for. or not .


The problem (for all of us) is when (too many) things cost more to make than the market (us!) can afford to buy or simply we value them at less than the selling price (for me things like a new BMW 7 series has always been in that Category - I could afford a new one, but for me even a new one is only worth around £5k! (or any higher s/h price - after 5 years).....fortunately for BMW (and actually also for me overall!) I am not the market they are aiming for!).............As an example, over here, our property market has dropped around 10%......but the market has essentially stagnated rather than collapsed - with transactions simply a fraction of what they once were (for the same reasons as everywhere else)....but the selling prices are not yet down to what the properties are actually worth nowadays - at the moment simply insufficient willing (aka forced!) sellers to move the market downwards. That may or may not change in the future......but sooner or later the property selling prices will match the market value (hopefully mostly from the market values moving upwards!)......it's economic gravity.

'Banana's'......

[Curmudgeon]

Originally Posted by Notpopeye

Here is the dilemma, I have no doubts that the dollar will have a 30% or more decrease in value sometime within the next year or so.

I don't know which dollar you re talking about but the U.S. Dollar has in fact maintained an average inflation rate of around 3% recently and that rate is in fact dropping. When the economy is bad, there is actually deflation of the currency, not inflation, as was the case in mid 2009 in the depths of the recession.

United States Inflation Rate

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by Notpopeye

Here is the dilemma...........

...............I have zero debt, my house is paid for, my car is paid for and I want to buy a boat to live on. I tried to sell my house and had a buyer but just as someone above wrote, the buyer's financing created problems that resulted in no sale.

Just thinking aloud - but what about offering a house buyer assistance with the financing, so that rather than dropping the price down to what the bank would be happy with - instead offer a percentage (25%?!) as second mortgage (behind the bank).

Bank now has lent "only" 75% except on 100% of the price (plus whatever the buyer can out down - less the bank saying the property is only worth 90% of the actual sale price).....the Bank is still better off with far more security (obviously the exact percentages / numbers will depend on the actual circumstances).

The downside to you is (probably) having to offer a 2nd Mortgage that is more than you would have to reduce the sale price down to (to acheive a sale)....so less cash in your pocket on day 1. But the upside is some income (depending on 2nd Mortgage Terms - could offer 2 years interest free!) and over the medium term a higher amount of cash in your pocket from not having had to reduce the sale price so much.

The 2nd Mortgage does not have to be for 20 / 25 years - can have pretty much any terms that works for you (and Buyer and of course - the Bank!). I would suggest something like 2 years interest only - thereafter some capital repayments. With repayment in full after 5 years (at that point they should be able to re-finance with a bank). Might have to give something away (overall) from the current selling price (and take some risk), but sounds likely will have to do that anyway on price to acheive a sale.

The obvious risk being that the buyer won't keep up with the repayments to you (keep an eye on them from Credit Checks and staying in contact, so if he loses his job you know early!) - but (I assume) you would still be able to force a foreclosure (and that ability used to re-schedule repayments if new Owner looks like simply needs some time). Bank is of course first in the Queue on a foreclosure and you might not recover all the debt owed to you - but a decent chance that you will recover a fair chunk (so not all the 2nd Mortgage is at risk), unless the property market crashes even further - in which case are in pole position to re-buy the property at the new "melted down" price (using part of the 75%(?) sale price already in the Bank)....even if that means the Bank needs to take a haircut .

As I said, just thinking aloud .