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Old 14-11-2015, 02:31   #1
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Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

Heads up in the Philippines and South Pacific. Recall I said maybe one more big one coming this year? Well something may be brewing and this may not be good.

1. Notice in this attached photo how far this may be forming from the Philippines. That means it has time to become big before it reaches here.

2. It also is clearly a possible case of near-simultaneous tropical cyclogenesis. That means a pair of cyclones spinning in opposite directions from each other across the equator help make each other bigger and stronger.

I have attached an image from 1997 when 4 pairs of cyclones formed late in the season. One of those pair spawned Paka.

Paka was big! A Cat 5 that left around 1,500 buildings destroyed on the island of Guam, a further 10,000 buildings sustained damage and 60% of the homes on the island reporting major damage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Paka

Back in late November 1997, a westerly disturbance developed into twin troughs on opposite sides of the equator; the one in the Southern Hemisphere ultimately developed into Tropical Cyclone Pam, while the one in the Northern Hemisphere formed into an area of convection about 2000 km (1240 mi) southwest of Hawaii. The disturbance gradually organized as it drifted north-northeastward, and on November 28 it developed into Tropical Depression Five-C about 465 km (290 mi) west-northwest of Palmyra Atoll. Operationally, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) did not begin issuing warnings on the system until December 2.


I now predict two Cat 4 or higher typhoons will end this season.




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Old 14-11-2015, 23:14   #2
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re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

November 15, 2015

Notice upper right quadrant of possible cyclone forming in Northern hemishpere. Moisture is feeding both systems heading East along the equator.
.

Notice how closely the system now appears compared to the 1997 drawing I posted yesterday. That moisture along the equator is just like the low in front of those two systems.


The "perfect storm" condition to watch for is if a cold front comes down to the West. This would greatly increase the amount of moisture available for the system to rapidly build
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Old 15-11-2015, 23:21   #3
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re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

Notice how fast the system grew from yesterday till today. It is still not a cyclone, however, it looks like 95% likely it will be.

The real threat for the Philippines is the low below the equator helps keep the forming typhoon down close to the equator.

Still too early to forecast exactly where this will go however, everyone start thinking.

Note: Haiyan (Yolanda) was about 2 weeks earlier than this system. Therefore, there is a chance this will cut across Mindanao and then mid to lower Palawan.
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Old 16-11-2015, 01:29   #4
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re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

Update November 16, 2015 #2

Well that was fast. Two hours after I posted the images for today we have gone into a formation alert.

"FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 168.1E TO 7.8N 160.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS"

I am expecting later today there will be an updated satellite photograph.

Again too early to say where this will hit and if it will be Cat 4 or Cat 5.
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Old 16-11-2015, 02:15   #5
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re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

Can this become bigger and worse than Haiyan in 2013? Certainly yes. Temperatures of the sea are much warmer.

Can this become bigger than Paka in 1997? Maybe.

From October into early November, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific have continued to warm.
In fact, the early November weekly SST anomalies in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (between 90 degrees W and 160 degrees E longitude and 5 degrees north/south latitude) equaled the peak weekly value (+2.8 degrees Celsius) on Nov. 26, 1997 during the 1997-1998 El Niño.
Tropical meteorologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach said that is being paced by the warmest sea-surface temperatures over the past 25 years in the equatorial central Pacific Ocean, well south of Hawaii.
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Old 16-11-2015, 04:58   #6
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re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

Another image was released as expected. It explains why within two hours we went from a medium status to full on formation alert. A very deep pronounced band developed on the Eastern segment of the northern system. It likely will be a full typhoon with a name tomorrow.

If you are on the hard in the Philippines get in the water.
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Old 16-11-2015, 15:45   #7
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re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

So far only one news source has caught on to the fact something big is afoot. Stars & Stripes reporter noted the formation alert and began warning Guam.

Early today November 17, 2015 new sea temperature data came out as follows:

Incredibly warm waters continue to build across the equatorial Pacific, and the El Niño event of 2015 has just set a record for the warmest waters ever observed in the equatorial Pacific over a 1-week period. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific’s Niño3.4 region, between 90°W and 160°E longitude and 5° north/south latitude, are considered the benchmark for rating the strength of an El Niño event. The weekly departure of SST from average in this region hit +3.0°C (5.4°F) over the past week, NOAA announced in their November 16 El Niño update.

Now, it is certain this could be bigger than Paka.

Consider what will occur in your area and take evasive measures.

Can your area see a storm surge, how high?
Is there a safer place to get to now?
Do you have kellets ?
Are you fueled and ready to go?
Any other boats to help out?
Stock food and fresh water?
Take down wind generators and canvas?
Take off mainsail and stow?
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Old 16-11-2015, 16:05   #8
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re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

Obama and all the APEC leaders are arriving in Manila right now. Interesting if they all want to get out in a hurry.
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Old 16-11-2015, 18:56   #9
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re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

I found some images from Kwajalein base

Notice growth within last few hours. The banding is also more clear. Winds at Kwajalein are 24 mph from SE consistent with a cyclone spinning below it. So the wrong direction to sail if you were in Kwajalein now is South.
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Old 16-11-2015, 19:44   #10
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re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

Pretty and dangerous

IGood images on this page

National Weather Service Office - Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia
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Old 16-11-2015, 21:35   #11
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re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

Not officially a typhoon yet.
Now called tropical depression 27W.

Track is right towards Guam.

So Mindanao is for the moment in the clear unless another one follows behind this one.

Wind forecast when it reaches Guam seem low compared to sea temperatures.
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Old 17-11-2015, 16:42   #12
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re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

Overnight, and no surprise to me, 27W was finally given the name In-fa because there is now zero question this will become typhoon strength.

Local Philippine name expected is Marilyn

Also no surprise the expected track was adjusted South. Guam is now clear.
Remember I wrote perfect storm conditions will be if a cold front comes down.
I dont think the computer models use some of my variables. I can tell you one of them and this variable says it is likely. What I am watching is the temperature in Darwin. Forecast is 36 C which is 96 F. Very hot weather in Darwin is bad for the Philippines. Like me, that is a lot of hot air. The air needs to come from somewhere and some will get pulled down from the Northern hemisphere. This will help bring the track South and may bring down a cold front.

I use Windguru to help give me an idea how far North this system will travel.
Today for 2 weeks all forecasts on this model indicate winds from North East which means there is still disagreement between models. Per Windguru this typhoon will track more Southerly then indicated today.

WindGURU: Philippines - Puerto Princesa City

Perhaps not as far South as Palau, however Yap may still see this one.

ETA in Philippines is still over 7 to 8 days.

Strength is only projected 5 days and forecast is
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

That is a big upgrade since yesterday evening, however, likely still low.
I project when arriving in the Philippines In-fa may arrive with winds around 180 KT.

The track below is nicer than the one released by JTWC and more public friendly. To see these tracks go to:


National Weather Service Forecast Office Guam Tropical Cyclone Web Page
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Old 17-11-2015, 22:18   #13
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Re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

Great thread! Thank you!
What are your thoughts about 93P, the low located near 7.8S
165.7E. It doesn't look like there is any interaction anymore between TD27W and 93P? 93P is just sitting there and the previous expected path south of Fiji is changed to a move to the W. I am planning to depart from Fiji to NZ in a few days and don't want this thing chasing me. What is your opinion?
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Old 18-11-2015, 00:52   #14
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Re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

Was looking at 93P and was surprised it is still going.
We should call it the Energizer Bunnie if it ever becomes something.

93P was the Southern hemisphere spin on the cyclogenesis that was in my first posts.

Because it has moved so far South, yes it is independent.

UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 05 TO 10 KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

My guess is this will develop into a Cat 3 cyclone before landing in Australia.
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Old 18-11-2015, 08:58   #15
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Re: Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

In-fa means fireworks
It reached typhoon status about 8 hours ago

Despite facts:

#1 We have been tracking this now for 4 days
#2 It will soon be a super typhoon
#3 We are still not certain it will miss Philippines

There is not a single news item about this typhoon other than Stars & Stripes in Guam

It looks now like a direct hit on Chuuk.
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