Overnight, and no surprise to me, 27W was finally given the name In-fa because there is now zero question this will become typhoon strength.
Local Philippine name expected is Marilyn
Also no surprise the expected track was adjusted South. Guam is now clear.
Remember I wrote perfect storm conditions will be if a cold front comes down.
I dont think the computer models use some of my variables. I can tell you one of them and this variable says it is likely. What I am watching is the temperature in Darwin. Forecast is 36 C which is 96 F. Very hot weather
in Darwin is bad for the Philippines. Like me, that is a lot of hot air. The air needs to come from somewhere and some will get pulled down from the Northern hemisphere. This will help bring the track South and may bring down a cold front.
I use Windguru to help give me an idea how far North this system will travel.
Today for 2 weeks all forecasts on this model indicate winds from North East which means there is still disagreement between models. Per Windguru this typhoon will track more Southerly then indicated today.
WindGURU: Philippines - Puerto Princesa City
Perhaps not as far South as Palau
, however Yap may still see this one.
ETA in Philippines is still over 7 to 8 days.
Strength is only projected 5 days and forecast is
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
That is a big upgrade since yesterday evening, however, likely still low.
when arriving in the Philippines In-fa may arrive with winds around 180 KT.
The track below is nicer than the one released by JTWC and more public friendly. To see these tracks go to:
National Weather Service Forecast Office Guam Tropical Cyclone Web Page