Typhoon forming off Yap, Phl Coast?

[Gone2long]

Wondering what folks think about the possibility of the below actually (dated 2pm, 12/21 - Philippine time - on typhoon2000.ph) turning into a serious storm or typhoon between now and Xmas.

I note that this is an El Nino year with colder than normal seas and a strong North easterly blowing pretty consistently. About 1 month ago, that dissipated a formation just like the below, before it hit the Philippines.

Also, with heavier than usual NE winds this year, what do foks think I might encounter motoring North along the West shore of Leyte and crossing E through the Biliran straits toward Samar? Thanks - G2L





A formation of a significant Tropical Cyclone is possible over Western Micronesia, south of Yap between December 22-23, 2016

Check out the daily WeatherPhilippines Graphical Satellite Analysis for the summary of tropical systems in and around the Western Pacific & the Philippine Sea. For TRMM Rainfall Data, click here.

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View 2016's Past Philippine Tropical Cyclone:
Tropical Storm MARCE (TOKAGE/29W) of November 24-28, 2016
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[chris in SG]

There are a few members who have specialist knowledge in this area and hopefully they will pick this query up before you decide your route.

My own, more generic, view would be that you should avoid heading north until the track becomes clearer, particularly if you don't have a very important deadline. Surely the rule should be to accept the current predicted track (regardless of ultimate storm strength) and avoid heading towards the track and towards the more risky northern side?

[zeehag]

check storm 2k. they will letyou know with their enthusiasm--enthusiastic and many pages--yes.. tis the season, btw.
incorrect--as to el nino-- the current is running COLD, therefore is a LA NINA year, is a difference.
LAST year was el nino. oops. they run may to may, not jan to jan. check it out. graphics are quite clear.

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by chris in SG

There are a few members who have specialist knowledge in this area and hopefully they will pick this query up before you decide your route.

My own, more generic, view would be that you should avoid heading north until the track becomes clearer, particularly if you don't have a very important deadline. Surely the rule should be to accept the current predicted track (regardless of ultimate storm strength) and avoid heading towards the track and towards the more risky northern side?

Thanks Chris, for the response. Actually, this time of year, most typhoons hit further south than in the earlier part of the season, so North is generally safer; but "yes" I will definitely be keeping a close watch on any development or track that emerges before I go anywhere. Can always just sit tight, if I have to.

Best regards,

G2L

[const0022]

Hi, I traveled that route last year same time, & got to Batangas by island hopping & hugging the eastern shores most of the time. Having weathered Yolanda successfully with 3anchors in Busuanga (100+knots)preparation is vital once you know typhoon is coming your way,so ensure you find a bay with alround protect and good, preferably mud holding & huge scope if poss. Research a suitable next anchorage enroute b4leaving incase typhoon changes. Let me know if you are ok as I am presently located on Leyte right now, on short hols whilst my boat is in yard in Batangas. There is a protected almost enclosed anchorage almost under Biliran bridge, David

[Pelagic]

Hi G2L

I assume you are heading home

Personally i would stay put and err on the side of caution.

Typhoon being upgraded to Cat 3 but Track forecast confidence is LOW due to various frontal effects.

It is supposed to make landfall in Bicol, but if it hits further south, your Lee shore winds hitting Leyte and W Samar will be stronger than the 29 knots shown here on Xmas day.

[Pelagic]

Another advantage of waiting till Boxing Day is that you should have much lighter Offshore winds behind you.

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by const0022

Hi, I traveled that route last year same time, & got to Batangas by island hopping & hugging the eastern shores most of the time. Having weathered Yolanda successfully with 3anchors in Busuanga (100+knots)preparation is vital once you know typhoon is coming your way,so ensure you find a bay with alround protect and good, preferably mud holding & huge scope if poss. Research a suitable next anchorage enroute b4leaving incase typhoon changes. Let me know if you are ok as I am presently located on Leyte right now, on short hols whilst my boat is in yard in Batangas. There is a protected almost enclosed anchorage almost under Biliran bridge, David

Yeah, I believe I saw that anchorage. Drove over the Biliran |Straits bridge not too long ago, scoping stuff out.

Latest track is included below, and it is going north, contrary to what I expected, so will wait it out and all should be OK - we hope.

Integrated Multi-Agency Tropical Cyclone Forecast
(Western North Pacific and South China Sea)
TC name: Please select... NOCK-TEN (洛坦/洛坦/納坦)



Plain-text forecast data of TC NOCK-TEN | Forecast log of TC NOCK-TEN | Deterministic multi-model forecast of TC NOCK-TEN | Ensemble model forecasts
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[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Another advantage of waiting till Boxing Day is that you should have much lighter Offshore winds behind you.Attachment 138351

Thanks for the two posts. Definitely agree. Not going anywhere by sea til this blows by. Note that I posted the latest track above.

Also, just took the Ferry across the Camotes Sea to check out what an "average day" looked like. Captain invited me up to the bridge and we watched a pretty good sized yacht banging his brains out heading due north. No fun at all once you are a few miles out, but, in the lee of Leyte, with no storm brewing, there seems like I would have no problem motoring north

Appreciate your input.

G2L

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by const0022

Hi, I traveled that route last year same time, & got to Batangas by island hopping & hugging the eastern shores most of the time. Having weathered Yolanda successfully with 3anchors in Busuanga (100+knots)preparation is vital once you know typhoon is coming your way,so ensure you find a bay with alround protect and good, preferably mud holding & huge scope if poss. Research a suitable next anchorage enroute b4leaving incase typhoon changes. Let me know if you are ok as I am presently located on Leyte right now, on short hols whilst my boat is in yard in Batangas. There is a protected almost enclosed anchorage almost under Biliran bridge, David

PS - you meant "western shores", right?

G2L

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by Gone2long

No fun at all once you are a few miles out, but, in the lee of Leyte, with no storm brewing, there seems like I would have no problem motoring north

Appreciate your input.

G2L

Updates show the Typhoon tracking slightly north but also a bit slower.

Problem is that west coast of Leyte will not be a Lee for very much longer and with the currents in that area will be very messy.

How far are you from your destination?

Here is another update in case you have limited internet

[Pelagic]

This is the updated position for same time......5am Xmas day

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Updates show the Typhoon tracking slightly north but also a bit slower.

Problem is that west coast of Leyte will not be a Lee for very much longer and with the currents in that area will be very messy.

How far are you from your destination?

Here is another update in case you have limited internet

Attachment 138383Attachment 138384

Got it. Thanks for your concern. We are in a secure harbor, far south enough to be out the area of significant winds and surge. We have been able to monitor the situation with internet so far. Not expecting more than 21kTS and lots of rain where we are.

Have a Merry Xmas,

G2L

[Pelagic]

Great to know...forecast to reach near Super Typhoon strength just before landfall

Still low confidence as to what track it will take so the eye may go over Puerto Galera or Subic, so keeping everyone guessing.

I feel sorry for anyone spending Xmas in PG

Merry Christmas from Zaida and I.

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Great to know...forecast to reach near Super Typhoon strength just before landfall

Still low confidence as to what track it will take so the eye may go over Puerto Galera or Subic, so keeping everyone guessing.

I feel sorry for anyone spending Xmas in PG

Merry Christmas from Zaida and I.

Yes; interesting to see how the track changed more or less westerly and how significantly and quickly the winds have been expected to intensify. My guess is that the system literally got pushed S from its WNW path into slightly warmer seas by the relatively strong NE monsoon.

Also interesting how the PHL news projected the impact of the storm as opposed to how it has (unexpectedly?) gained strength.

Lastly, hope no friends n PG are in the lee of any cargo ships taking refuge there : )

Best regards,

G2L