Typhoon forming off Yap, Phl Coast?

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by zeehag

check storm 2k. they will letyou know with their enthusiasm--enthusiastic and many pages--yes.. tis the season, btw.
incorrect--as to el nino-- the current is running COLD, therefore is a LA NINA year, is a difference.
LAST year was el nino. oops. they run may to may, not jan to jan. check it out. graphics are quite clear.

Hi,

Thanks for the response. My relatively naïve understanding of El Nino events is that they effect various parts of the world much differently. I still have lots more to learn about such stuff, but, according to one source that I have read, the event has resulted in somewhat colder SE
Asia water temperatures and higher wind velocity into December.

Regards,

G2L

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Great to know...forecast to reach near Super Typhoon strength just before landfall

Still low confidence as to what track it will take so the eye may go over Puerto Galera or Subic, so keeping everyone guessing.

I feel sorry for anyone spending Xmas in PG

Merry Christmas from Zaida and I.

No threat of a typhoon here!
.
.
.
PG = Papua New Guinea, PH = Philippines

[Pelagic]

Here in PH...PG means Puerto Galera as in PGYC....[emoji3]
unfortunately it has now been upgraded to a Cat 4 Typhoon with gusts to 300 km/hr, sustained 280.

[Pelagic]

Looks like it will be a bumpy ride for Santa tonight as this Typhoon hits the Philippines.

Multi tracks now show the eye going thru Verde Pass and Porto Galera.

Last time it did that in Nov. 2006, we barely survived on the moorings as a coastal freighter dragged past us by only feet before running aground and 7 yachts broke their moorings with the same fate.

Much happier to be in SBYC tonight

[pbmaise]

When considering your vessel safety when mooring or at dock during a typhoon three main factors come into play:

1. Your own ground tackle and method.
2. Types of vessels around you and the ground tackle and method they use.
3. The maximum winds expected.

[pbmaise]

Pelagic's point is very valid.
Once you have safely prepared your vessel, the greatest risk you face is from other vessels who failed to prepare as well.

I want to first cover the subject of preparing your own vessel. Assume you have a typhoon forecasted to arrive at your anchorage site.

#1 Get an idea for yourself the type of loads your vessel will see.
Wind Velocity and Wind Load

Notice in particular the maximum wind expected greatly effects the total load.
For a multihull with 45 M2 exposed surface to the winds:

50 knots = 3,800 lbs force
75 knots = 8,000 lbs force
100 knots = 16,000 lbs force

You have to do some conversions to use the calculator I gave you. Use Google as follows

Convert 50 knots to m/s
Convert 16,759 newtons to lbs force

2. Start looking at how you are anchored/moored/attached. What is the breaking strength of the items you are using?

Polyproylene is common on moorings and surprisingly strong.

Polypropylene Fiber Rope - Strength

However, if you are connected to a D shackle that is only 1/2 inch your D shackle will likely fail first.

Further the mooring may have an old rusting chain. That too could lead to a failure.

Other failure points include:
Lack of chaffing to protect the mooring line.
Sun damage on rope from mooring to vessel.
Chaffing from vessel on mooring line.
Sharp barnacles that have taken residence on plastic hose.

3. Well before a typhoon hits is the time to be diving a mooring and do the inspection and correct suspect items.

Personal plan:
In the Philippines Benedicto Hardware in Cebu is an excellent source for large shackles and swivels. The chain around my mooring is solid and I checked it myself. I am using two 7/8" shackles either side of a heavy duty swivel. One side is to the chain, and the other is to 1-1/2 polypropylene line protected on both sides with chaffing gear.

From the vessel I run three separate lines. Two from the bow and one from the port ama. I do not believe a trimaran should be moored to all three hulls. I found what happens is load is shifted back and forth between the port and starboard ama.

[Pelagic]

One of the problems at PGYC is that the moorings are too close together so their chain scope is almost straight up and down.

In 2006 Typhoon, when 7 yachts broke their moorings.... being on the outer mooring, I laid an additional anchor towards the direction of maximum fetch.

As the wind Backed with the approaching eye, this anchor took the strain off of the heavy mooring and we were safe.
(except from dragging commercial ships)

You can see how tightly they are packed.

[pbmaise]

2. Types of vessels around you and the ground tackle and method they use.

Once you have secured your vessel, by far the greatest risk is from other vessels around you.

How many years has that monohull been on an unchecked mooring?
Will anyone enter the bay and simply drop a little anchor?
Where are all the fishing boats going to go?

Remember if the bay seemed safe to you, it will seem safe to all the other vessels that normally are anchored. Almost 50 small, fishing vessels came into Bonbonon bay the last time typhoon drew near.

Small fishing vessels tend to tie to shore bow first and drop a stern anchor. Alternately they tie to another vessel tied to shore. In my opinion these vessels, owing to their small size and build, represent a minor hazard. Likely, their stern anchor would fail first and they would be broken apart on the rocks.

The greater hazard is from steel vessels like the many roll on roll off working vessels.
For example in Bonbonon Bay yesterday for the very first time I observed a very large commercial vessel venture into the yacht area.

It anchored in the channel between Tambobo and Bonbonon Bay.

This vessel would very likely break loose in a big blow and take out all vessels it colloids with no matter how well they prepared their moorings. At a minimum it would do a large amount of damage.

Fortunately, my mooring is West of this big commercial vessel. This is initially a pretty safe spot to be. Winds from an arriving typhoon will likely push the vessel either to the North or South where it would hopefully run aground and stay put.

Therefore, look around your mooring and predict where the commercial vessels will anchor. You can pretty much expect many of them will break free even if a typhoon eye approaches at a fair distance.

[pbmaise]

3. The maximum winds expected.

As I related in sizing your mooring/anchoring lines maximum winds expected is important.

It also should play into your greatest risk question. For this I quote the song by the Clash.

Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
An' if I stay it will be double

To answer this all important question you first must have a seaworthy vessel that is in ready order to put to sea. If you are sitting on another continent hoping you will find your vessel when you return you are in luck. You have no choice, you are at the mercy of the odds of staying.

If on the other hand, you have been maintaining your vessel in a ready stay to set to sea if a typhoon draws too near, then you must make the choice.

First know how to read the forecast from JTWC.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Here is part of the forecast for Nina.

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.9N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.2N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS


So the forecast predicts rather accurately where the eye will fall within 24 and 36 hours. You can plot the path on Open CPN and then see exactly how close the eye may approach.

That GPS position and your anchorage is how far apart?

Puerto Galera is at Latitude‎: ‎13.5° N Longitude‎: ‎121° E

In 36 hours, Nina's eye will be about 14.2 - 13.5 = 0.7 degrees to the North.
Each degree is 60 nm. So it will be 42 nm away.

This is within the 50 knot wind circle.

[Pelagic]

Yes, other vessels/ships breaking free is the biggest danger.

To be fair to PGYC they are very good at maintaining the moorings as they are hauled up onto a dedicated service barge every year, measured for waste on chain and shackle pins and anything suspect, is replaced.

My problem with them is that the scopes are far too short for a Typhoon wind from the NNW.
And the local commercial boats.

[pbmaise]

You know how seaworthy and ready your vessel is to put to sea.

Further you can foresee your position and anticipate where other vessels are likely to break free.

Within the 50 knot wind circle you should expect a good number of large steel barge like vessels to be adrift. Some sailboats on moorings will break free. Especially, sailboats on "private" moorings that are not maintained by a club. There is a high probability any sailboats simply anchored in soft mud will drag.

Within the 64 knot wind circle, winds could be up to the maximum gusts at the eye itself. In this case, gusts within that smaller wind circle can be 100 knots. Therefore, if you see your current position will fall within 64 knot wind circle, far more damage will occur. Fortunately, this circle should be just north of Puerto Galera.

It is my position, and experience of others like Pelagic, that no matter how well you prepared your mooring, that putting to sea is likely the best option if winds will fall within the 50 knot circle and there are vessels around that can break free.

In a short 36 hours my vessel and I could be at least:

36 hours times 6 knots = 216 nm away.

That is actually quite a long ways away from even a super typhoon.

Assuming I burned a lot of fuel to go dead North or dead South, I would have invested a few hundred USD to move my boat to a safe location.

To me, that investment is well worth it. I have far more at risk if another vessel breaks free and damages mine.

[pbmaise]

If a forecast has my position falling within the 64 knot wind circle, my plan is to head out to sea even if no other vessels around me are expected to cause damage. Winds eventually, could damage my own vessel even if anchorage held.

Just one big new solar panel was a bigger investment than the price of fuel to get out of harm's way.

South is most likely the route I would take.

[const0022]

Originally Posted by Gone2long

PS - you meant "western shores", right?

G2L

Sorry, yes, western. I did send correction but lousy internet here on Leyte failed to send it.
You should be fine soon as typhoon now well north. My email djconstantine@fastmail.fm if you need anything. Happy Christmas, David

[Pelagic]

The updated multi agency tracks across the Philippines keeps changing which indicates that there are a number of thermal influences they haven't quite settled on.

#10 had it passing close to Corregidor

Now #11 back to Verde Pass and Puerto Galera

[pbmaise]

JTWC forecast no. 17 indicates the eye will pass about 33 nm North of PG further the radius of 50 knot winds is at 30 nm to the South.

How accurate that will be is of course computer models and land interactions may throw them off quite a bit.

The second track published by Pelagic above is markedly different. It shows a track much closer to PG.

http://weather.com.ph//

Is the source of the tracks Pelagic is showing and I just checked and the track is right near PG.