Piracy - Reality vs Perception

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by capn_billl

From the internet of course, ....so you know they got to be right.

If I had asked how much money your boat cost and you said "A lot."
you would have:
A) Answered
B) Answered truthfully
C) Not really given any useful information.

Similarly here your answer here gives no information and provides no means for checking the authority and accuracy of your sources.

[capn_billl]

Originally Posted by Adelie

If I had asked how much money your boat cost and you said "A lot."
you would have:
A) Answered
B) Answered truthfully
C) Not really given any useful information.

Similarly here your answer here gives no information and provides no means for checking the authority and accuracy of your sources.

ODDS OF BECOMING A LIGHTNING VICTIM
(based on averages for 2001-2010)

Estimated U.S. population as of 2011
310,000,000
Annual Number of Deaths Reported
39
Number of Injuries Reported
241
280
Estimated number of U.S. Deaths
40
Estimated number of actual Injuries
360
400
Odds of being struck by lightning in a given year (reported deaths + injuries)
1/1,000,000
Odds of being struck by lightning in a given year (estimated total deaths + injuries)
1/775,000
Odds of being struck in your lifetime (Est. 80 years)
1/10,000
Odds you will be affected by someone being struck (Ten people affected for every one struck)
1/1000

NOAA

NWS Lightning Safety Medical Information

[capn_billl]

Originally Posted by Adelie

If I had asked how much money your boat cost and you said "A lot."
you would have:
A) Answered
B) Answered truthfully
C) Not really given any useful information.

Similarly here your answer here gives no information and provides no means for checking the authority and accuracy of your sources.

USA population = 280,000,000
1000 lightning victims/year/average
Odds = 1 : 280,000 of being struck by lightning

Lightning Strike Probabilities - National Lightning Safety Institute

[capn_billl]

Originally Posted by Adelie

If I had asked how much money your boat cost and you said "A lot."
you would have:
A) Answered
B) Answered truthfully
C) Not really given any useful information.

Similarly here your answer here gives no information and provides no means for checking the authority and accuracy of your sources.

The feature reports that in any one year the odds of your boat being struck by lightning is about 1.2 in 1,000,

CapitalCityWeekly: Boat Broker: Lightning and Your Boat 08/24/05

All other references available by PM.

[sarafina]

Fascinating information about lightening strikes. Can anyone tie lightening strikes into pirate attacks?

Are we discussing statics in a broad sense or are we discussing the likelihood of a pirate attack in any given situation and the relevant risks normally associated to sailing?

Ya know... thread drift?

Just sayin....

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by capn_billl

The feature reports that in any one year the odds of your boat being struck by lightning is about 1.2 in 1,000,

CapitalCityWeekly: Boat Broker: Lightning and Your Boat 08/24/05

All other references available by PM.

Thank you.

How about the worldwide and Gulf of Aden stats? Did you have outside sources or were you repeating info from other people's posts in this thread?

[goboatingnow]

In testing and actually installed on several warships of the US Navy we now have prototypes of MegaWatt lasers mounted on close in defense mounts which are digitally linked to new pointing systems which will allow engagement of multiple targets out to a range of several kilometers. These systems Will be effective and will be employed in the not too distant future.

There will not be a safe place to be a Pirate, they will be interdicted efficiently and they are not going to be able to persist in their activities. They will be disabled and captured or killed outright depending on the circumstances. The cavalry is on the way but we are a couple years away from implimentation. Until then things will likely get worse. The pirates will try to cash in as long as they can.

While living in Stargate SG-1 land might be useful at times. It remains blindingly obvious that men on the ground end up doing the work, not technology.

Dave

[capn_billl]

Originally Posted by Adelie

Thank you.

How about the worldwide and Gulf of Aden stats? Did you have outside sources or were you repeating info from other people's posts in this thread?

Post in this thread, (guilty )

The numbers look good though. 1. Every known pirate attack has been endlessly debated on this board and the media. 2. Posts of sailing yachts that have transited, or intended to transit also endlessly debated.

Hard numbers may take more research, but I stand by my statement, "piracy in gulf of Aden higher than lightening strikes".

Hard numbers available here,
http://www.navy.gov.au/w/images/PIRA..._COMMUNITY.pdf

Worldwide there were 293 acts of piracy in 2008, most of those in the gulf of aden or indian ocean, the rest divided across the entire world and millions of ships. Due to the variable nature of what constitutes a "pirate" attack I haven't found any hard numbers with solid stats, Gord are you out there??

[boatman61]

But then if we're talking about 'Piracy'.... what about the so called GFC........
YouTube - The Kinks - Sunny Afternoon

Sorry folks... feeling a bit 'Kinky' this morning....

[VirtualVagabond]

Originally Posted by sarafina

Fascinating information about lightening strikes. Can anyone tie lightening strikes into pirate attacks?

Are we discussing statics in a broad sense or are we discussing the likelihood of a pirate attack in any given situation and the relevant risks normally associated to sailing?

Ya know... thread drift?

Just sayin....

Sure.... Pirates are in the business of 'lightening' your wallet. Now, how about a hard question

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by capn_billl

Hard numbers may take more research, but I stand by my statement, "piracy in gulf of Aden higher than lightening strikes".

Hard numbers available here,
http://www.navy.gov.au/w/images/PIRA..._COMMUNITY.pdf

I would accept that piracy in Aden is more likely than lighning strikes without further research. I'm still interested in knowing what the numbers are approximately.

This site ( Somali pirates making hay in Indian Ocean) which apparently has the same story as seveal other sites indicates 1.8% of north bound ships and yachts were attacked and 0.19% were captured during 2010 or 1.1% were captured depending on whether you believe the headline or the body of the story.

Doesn't say anything about southbound traffic.

Among the things I have read there are recurring indication that several hundred yachts a year transit this area.

I have written the Suez Canal Authority Public Relations asking for 2009 and 2010 yacht traffic. I am making the assumption that every yacht that transits the canal transits the gulf of Aden whether they are north or south bound. I don't see enough attraction on the Red Sea for more than 1 or 2 vessels to make that a destination in and of itself. I will let this thread know of any response I get.

[estarzinger]

Originally Posted by Adelie

Among the things I have read there are recurring indication that several hundred yachts a year transit this area.

Just fyi - from Yachting world for the 2010 northbound season:

"When we contacted the port captain of Salalah in April he confirmed that in the previous three months (the 'northbound season') 144 yachts had left for Aden and the Red Sea"

The 2011 northbound season had significantly lower numbers - just a rough guess perhaps half.

[Jon Hacking]

Originally Posted by cwyckham

I sure don`t see any risks going around the cape that come close to those going up the red sea. I`d sooner circumnavigate the southern ocean than head up the Red Sea. At least those risks I can prepare for and mitigate through good seamanship and equipment.

There was some debate here on going around the Cape of Good Hope. I think the Blue Water Rally (or someone) has been spreading misinformation. It's actually pretty easy, although you have to watch the weather.

The normal arrival is from NW Madagascar via Mozambique in Oct-Nov, but some boats do come around the bottom of Madagascar.

Richards Bay, 80nm N of Durban, is your first port. We stayed there 2 full years, touring greater southern Africa by land. The leg from Durban down to East London (250nm) is the only difficult one, as there are no safe stops in between. You just have to make sure there are no fronts coming up from Cape Town. You're being shot down the coast by the Agulhas Current, and you don't want to get in a wind-against-current situation.

After that, you can pretty much day-sail it if you want, as there are several safe ports, although some boats get windows that let them go all the way from Durban to Cape Town in one shot. (IMHO, this bypasses some great cruising grounds)

Most boats leave Cape Town early in the year, bound for St Helena & then Brazil, with a possible stop in Ascension. If you leave early enough, you can get to Brazil in time for Carnival, which is Awesome (in a sleepless sort of way).

As far as safety is concerned, South Africa certainly has issues. There are too many guns loose, & everybody knows someone who has been shot. But most of that's during break-ins & in the cities, mostly Jo'burg. The marinas are cheap & usually have guards, so they're safe. We toured all over in our Audi sedan with our 2 daughters in the back seat for a year & had no safety issues at all.

And when we cross the Indian again (for the 3rd time) we'll again head down to South Africa. The latitudes aren't as high (35 to round the Cape), the seasons are longer (you get an extra summer), the winds are behind you all the way (unlike the Red Sea & Med), & you can stop in Chagos & Maldives (paradises that you don't really have time for when going to the Med).

But the kicker is that, while you're brushing the edge of pirate areas going from Chagos to Madagascar, you can do it at a TIME when they're not there. If you look at the Piracy Map, you'll notice that there have been no attacks in the area just north of Madagascar from the end of May to about Sept. That's because it's too rough for their open boats - but not for us cruisers.

[boatman61]

To many scarey 'Swing the Lantern Tales'....
sure $#it happens... but it happens most places some time...
the Biscay in a SE gale is no fun either...
An independent cruiser will deal with it... for the rest who need to cruise in company... its another matter...

[Bruce626]

Originally Posted by IdoraKeeper

Just to add a few facts that some may not be aware of. There are now under development several different types of medium altitude drone aircraft that are designed for long duration surveilance. These will be combined with autonomous rotorcraft launched from warships to create a digital net of surveilance that will be able to detect even small craft at sea in the area. In testing and actually installed on several warships of the US Navy we now have prototypes of MegaWatt lasers mounted on close in defense mounts which are digitally linked to new pointing systems which will allow engagement of multiple targets out to a range of several kilometers. These systems Will be effective and will be employed in the not too distant future.

There will not be a safe place to be a Pirate, they will be interdicted efficiently and they are not going to be able to persist in their activities. They will be disabled and captured or killed outright depending on the circumstances. The cavalry is on the way but we are a couple years away from implimentation. Until then things will likely get worse. The pirates will try to cash in as long as they can.

Todd

Typical government over-reaction and way too late. The weapon for this task has been around since 1916 or so - the Browning .50 caliber heavy machine gun firing API rounds (armor piercing incendiary). This weapon could be mounted on a variety of old and/or inexpensive helicopters such as the Bell HU-1, fitted with floats and operated off small surplus or aged oil tankers. Cheap already available technology - proven in its ability to sink small open boats.

Deciding which boats to sink is easy - the pirates are going to have new fast boats with too many crew to be fishermen. Fishermen have to make a living so their boats are older, slower, and manned with only enough crew to get the job done. Further, pirate craft will have boarding ladders and armed crew - likely with radio communications, and they won't be fishing but chasing around. A half hour's briefing on what a local fishing boat looks like versus a local pirate boat is likely the only instruction needed.

It is not necessary to try and kill the pirates - just shoot up the outboard motors so they don't maneuver anymore and forget them. A rocket pod might be fitted to take out any of the pirate 'mother ships'.

Quick cost effective action that could have been already been implemented. Chasing pirates in boats is contraindicated - if you are in a boat and sink theirs, you are obligated to rescue them; but if you are in a loaded helicopter its just fire and forget - the pirates can swim home (or call for help - more targets).

We took more effective action a couple of hundred years ago when faced with a similar problem in a place (now immortalized in song) called Tripoli - back when we were a third world developing country without much of a navy.