Mono in distress

[El Pinguino]

Get a grip 44CC...as Ann said 'Nothing to discuss there here.'......

[StuM]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

I wonder why BoM only do forecasts out to 4 days? Colour Forecast map for next 4 days

They do 10 days:
"Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS). Based upon the UK Met Office Unified Model system. ACCESS G is the global numerical forecast model operated by the BoM. It is run twice daily (00Z and 12Z) and provides forecast data out to 240 hours with a horizontal resolution of 25km and 70 vertical levels."

10-day BoM ACCESS model weather forecast of isobars and rain

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Get a grip 44CC...as Ann said 'Nothing to discuss there here.'......

Nothing to discuss there either. Doesn't stop them. Why don't you tell your mates to get a grip?

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by StuM

They do 10 days:
"Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS). Based upon the UK Met Office Unified Model system. ACCESS G is the global numerical forecast model operated by the BoM. It is run twice daily (00Z and 12Z) and provides forecast data out to 240 hours with a horizontal resolution of 25km and 70 vertical levels."

10-day BoM ACCESS model weather forecast of isobars and rain

Interesting, but am I correct in assuming that is a grib of some sort... without human intervention?

[44'cruisingcat]

Any weather forecast10 days ahead is just guesswork.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Interesting, but am I correct in assuming that is a grib of some sort... without human intervention?

As I understand it, yes - it's pure model.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

Any weather forecast10 days ahead is just guesswork.

Ed Zackery.

Moving right along...or moving right back to the stuff about an un-named yacht using Predictwind to go over the top of that weather system. That would have been a decision made very early on.... maybe even before the low had crossed over the coast when everything was conjecture.

Lets say you found yourself with a deepening low to the North of West of your position. Probably the very worst thing you could do would be to try to get north of it. For starters you would by trying to sail into a freshening northerly... good luck with that. If you did get above the centre of the low you would be treated to a nice westerly gale.

CDF logic would be, in the opinion of this simple sailor man, to head south not north, to stay in the easterlies but out of the worst of it.

As things stand just now yacht 'X' would appear to just be marketing hype from Predictwind , they probably found it in the same hat they keep their rabbits in.

[barnakiel]

I think in this particular case weather analysis was fine and was not a problem.

The mishap mis-happened due to a mechanical failure on the boat, not due to bad weather or poor wx/routing choices.

And with mechanical failures there is only one thing one can do: design well, build well, and maintain rigorously.

And then there is also plain bad luck: one can get pasted by a random even beyond anyone's control.

Cheers,
b.

[barnakiel]

Re micro-cell wx units as discussed above:

1) They happen mostly on big continental shores where the flow gets off the coast, they are very rare offshore (but did happen) by comparison, coasts that I know they happen are RSA East coast and Australia East coast, but I bet the situation is similar elsewhere.

2) They are worst where the continent can get very hot during the day (wastelands, deserts, etc. inland).

3) They do pop up on wx charts at times - mostly as a single closed isobar close onshore. You can see them in some analysis pictures but never (?) in forecast pictures.

The good news is they are easily visible in plain daylight. People with radars can confirm if the cells are visible on radar. In any case, we witnessed them twice while in Richards Bay and I had zero doubt the thing was about to hit the fan. And so had the less wx aware part of our pack.

Cheers,
barnakiel

[Steadman Uhlich]

TO ALL:
I have read all of the comments above, after reading all of the linked articles about the loss of the boat.

I saw in the articles that the boat's rudder "broke."

I am curious about a few things, and IF you have read any article, news report, interview, or have local knowledge (from speaking with the owners of this boat):

1. Was the boat using a sea anchor off the bow at the time the rudder broke? Please give a link to a citation or quote from the owners on this.

2. What was the cause of the broken rudder? Any more details?

3. Are the owners of the boat members of CF?

If you have any details or quotes from the owner of the boat, please share them here. Thanks.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by StuM

As I understand it, yes - it's pure model.

So its not a forecast then....

[scruzin]

Originally Posted by Steady Hand

TO ALL:
I have read all of the comments above, after reading all of the linked articles about the loss of the boat.

I saw in the articles that the boat's rudder "broke."

I am curious about a few things, and IF you have read any article, news report, interview, or have local knowledge (from speaking with the owners of this boat):

1. Was the boat using a sea anchor off the bow at the time the rudder broke? Please give a link to a citation or quote from the owners on this.

2. What was the cause of the broken rudder? Any more details?

3. Are the owners of the boat members of CF?

If you have any details or quotes from the owner of the boat, please share them here. Thanks.

I second this. It would be incredibly helpful to know how their ruddder broke as it would be instructive for others.

[Seaslug Caravan]

While we have all been busy here another mono has got itself into distress.

Lavranos 41????

AMSA - Australian Maritime Safety Authority (via Public) / 19 Mar 2017 - HMAS Parramatta rescues South African nationals from yacht in Indian Ocean


Suspect the Aus taxpayer is going to sick of these shananigans real quick.

Sadly someone was injured in this catamaran rescue last week.

https://www.news-mail.com.au/news/up...escue/3156396/

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Seaslug Caravan

While we have all been busy here another mono has got itself into distress.

Lavranos 41????

AMSA - Australian Maritime Safety Authority (via Public) / 19 Mar 2017 - HMAS Parramatta rescues South African nationals from yacht in Indian Ocean


Suspect the Aus taxpayer is going to sick of these shananigans real quick.

Sadly someone was injured in this catamaran rescue last week.

https://www.news-mail.com.au/news/up...escue/3156396/

I suspect the Aus taxpayer won't even notice.

That 'who is paying for the rescue' non sense has been out there for many years and is trotted out by the 'press'... not the people.

First case I was aware of concerned a race from NZ to Oz in '46 or '47. Whole fleet was overdue... RAAF Lincoln bomber sent out to find them -- which it did.

In the daily press up popped the 'who is going to pay for that!' rollocks... RAAF promptly said 'go away stupid people' and that was the end of that.

I read the cat story as crew injury sparked the rescue and was not a result of the rescue.

[svseachange]

I'm an Australian taxpayer and I'm happy to pay.