Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

[mct]

So, markJ (doesn't matter who it is really- singlehander on sub-40ft boat) set off from St martin( that's 90nm E of BVI) sailing towards NYC 1400nm NNW last Sunday24th

Latest fcast I have found for mid next week shows wind NNW to 25 knots. from Weds3rd at Cape Hatteras and all down the US E coast to Fl. This from pasageweather.com, just computer generated i know. yesterdaty the fcast for the same period showed calm - so it's a-changing...

So i have already sent msg saying he shd make landfall by end Tues2nd

Please feel fre to contribute with weather forecast and suggested ports of entry on US coast. Or (thinks...) maybe he would want to g to N bahamas (Abacos?) so it doesn't eat into his 3-month visa. Hum.

[colemj]

Is he asking for routing info and advice?

Mark

[mct]

Originally Posted by colemj

Is he asking for routing info and advice?

Mark

Well yes, generally speaking he is wanting any info - who wouldn't? I thought my initial post pretty clear? He's at sea, and this forecast has just turned up on the longer range for those on land with enough bandwidth to find it. He thinks it's all fine ... but now I know different. So he's not "asking" for anything - I'm asking here for advice and routing to pass to him.

I suppose it's not relevant if he is "asking" for advice or not - are there any sailors who -when someone had info relating to bad weather on their route - would say "LA LA LA I"m not listening!" .... ?

So, this is just a little thread inviting people who might have more info to contribute with wx advice etc.

There is another thread on his trip - was getting a little cluttered. Please restrict this to actual info and not too much posts like "Well I think MarkJ can look after himself!" or "who the heck are you?" and so on. I am a fellow circumnavigator like MarkJ start/finish at St Martin, known him for a few years, good friend.

At the moment I plan to wait a little for more longer fcasts into nxt week, try buy some more minutes for Mark's sat phone - I loaned it to him but it had no minutes on, and probably phone him later today. I thought it could be useful to perhaps glean more info here.

Hope this makes the situation clear?

[2Hulls]

Originally Posted by mct

Latest fcast I have found for mid next week shows wind NNW to 25 knots. from Weds3rd at Cape Hatteras and all down the US E coast to Fl. This from pasageweather.com...

Well, Wed3rd is still pretty far out, so decisions based on this should be contingencies, perhaps. Passageweather is a rendition of the GFS model. Weather underground Weather Forecast & Reports - Long Range & Local | Wunderground | Weather Underground shows additional models which probably have different forecasts this far out - they tend to converge as the forecast period shortens.

How is he getting his gribs?

Dave

[colemj]

Originally Posted by mct

Well yes, generally speaking he is wanting any info - who wouldn't? I thought my initial post pretty clear? He's at sea, and this forecast has just turned up on the longer range for those on land with enough bandwidth to find it. He thinks it's all fine ... but now I know different. So he's not "asking" for anything - I'm asking here for advice and routing to pass to him.

I suppose it's not relevant if he is "asking" for advice or not - are there any sailors who -when someone had info relating to bad weather on their route - would say "LA LA LA I"m not listening!" .... ?

So, this is just a little thread inviting people who might have more info to contribute with wx advice etc.

There is another thread on his trip - was getting a little cluttered. Please restrict this to actual info and not too much posts like "Well I think MarkJ can look after himself!" or "who the heck are you?" and so on. I am a fellow circumnavigator like MarkJ start/finish at St Martin, known him for a few years, good friend.

At the moment I plan to wait a little for more longer fcasts into nxt week, try buy some more minutes for Mark's sat phone - I loaned it to him but it had no minutes on, and probably phone him later today. I thought it could be useful to perhaps glean more info here.

Hope this makes the situation clear?

Earlier, there was a case here where "help" was supplied by the CF community to a person offshore when it was not asked for or expected. This resulted in people being unhappy (and poorer).

Therefore, my question was reasonable. It was not clear to me in your OP that MarkJ specifically asked you for advice.

Does MarkJ have the capability to hear Chris Parker's weather forecasts on HF?

Mark

[mct]

Originally Posted by 2Hulls

Well, Wed3rd is still pretty far out, so decisions based on this should be contingencies, perhaps. Passageweather is a rendition of the GFS model. Weather underground Weather Forecast & Reports - Long Range & Local | Wunderground | Weather Underground shows additional models which probably have different forecasts this far out - they tend to converge as the forecast period shortens.

How is he getting his gribs?

Dave

Um, thanks but .... just to be clear, please, this isn't the usual "chatty" thread: I am looking for input, not to start a discussion about comms, or the various pro's and cons of this/that forecast model etc.

Yeah I am well aware that wed3rd is distant wx-wise - but the further N he goes now the more isolated by mid next week and hence decisions MUST be made soon, see? So your stuff about "contingencies" er not so useful.

He could get gribs via satphone but it's limited. Hence this thread.

Note that by Weds3rd his route wd take him 200nmm east of hatteras - too late to do anything cept sorta turn and run away, and he hasn't fitted a Hyperspace button...

"Yeah sorry about you getting smashed up MarkJ but see on that forum they sed yerknow that the GFS model not that reliable so i just let you run on with your route". Not much good.

Sorry to sound harsh but IF you have info (not comments, not questions) as requested on OP .... please contribute.

[mct]

Originally Posted by colemj

Earlier, there was a case here where "help" was supplied by the CF community to a person offshore when it was not asked for or expected. This resulted in people being unhappy (and poorer).

Therefore, my question was reasonable. It was not clear to me in your OP that MarkJ specifically asked you for advice.

Does MarkJ have the capability to hear Chris Parker's weather forecasts on HF?

Mark

Ok, sorry for offending you and I didn't want to hurt your feelings.

I recognise that all sorts of things hapened about other boats in other places. But that does not mean that no help should ever be provided.

I will take responsibility for delivering good/bad info, ok?

His HF might work or not, might have broken. Irrelevant.

Anyone with actual info wanting to input still welcome.

Thanks in anticipation...

[2Hulls]

Whether you like it or not, I would advise to consult the various models and see how far out they diverge - at least the GFS and Euro. Knowing that, apply the knowledge to his specific location, course, and estimated speed and go from there. You haven't even stated where he is. Nobody in their right mind should provide routing advice on such little info. And it is all about contingencies...

Dave

[monte]

Ah yeah this low forming off NY wasn't showing until today's forecast. I've been keeping an eye on the weather on Marks route while watching the weather here as we have a tropical wave coming over us.
The latest grib shows a fairly intense low developing off NY Tuesday. Still a fair way out for a forecast but something to keep an eye on for sure. His rhumb line is close to Bermuda so that's an option. What is his current position?
The trough over him is likely causing the light airs he's currently experiencing and maybe some thunderstorm activity.
Take this info with a grain of salt, I wouldn't want to be responsible for the forecast information or advising a course change at this stage.

[mct]

Originally Posted by 2Hulls

Whether you like it or not, I would advise to consult the various models and see how far out they diverge - at least the GFS and Euro. Knowing that, apply the knowledge to his specific location, course, and estimated speed and go from there. You haven't even stated where he is. Nobody in their right mind should provide routing advice on such little info. And it is all about contingencies...

Dave

Sigh!

It is not a matter of whether I "like it or not". He's on that route, started Sunday on 40ft boat 5ish knots as sthey all do, all as per OP, with limited ability (emails from satphone) to report position.

As in the good ole days when they set off and much later, arrived, or not.

In a week, the admiitedly hazy iffy info available shows he'll be in danger if he stays on that route.

His exact positon isn't needed - he's on that route, ish, the (possible, that was one of my questions) storm would be over a wide area covering all his (by then) possible positions ... if he continues, see?

Do you think it a good idea to sit on the info and wait until fully corroborated and THEN advise him? Cos then we'l be certain won't we? ... Except it'll be too late for him to make landfall. Oh well. Sorry you got smashed up Mark, but the general consensus was not to be too hasty, and to get your exact exact position, so it's def not our fault, see? Good stuff. Not.

He does have the satphone as mentioned.

Again, sorry to hurt feelings, now numbering 2, and private messages numbering 3 asking me for a link to passaweather...

Again, this isn't the time to come up with "well, nobody in their right mind" or "like it or not" or other emotive remarks. Just info, as requested, please.

As before, those who can answer the OP, limited info but that's the real world ... very welcome.

Thanks again in anticipation

[monte]

Yep I think it's fair enough. Mct will filter out any irrelevant crap and do what Mark asked him to do which is give him a heads up of any changes to the original forecast and offer advice. Mct is just asking for input to make the best judgment. I haven't sailed that area but from what I understand, crossing the Gulf Stream in a northerly is not a good idea. I'm sure Mct won't be forwarding all the suggestions we make to Mark, otherwise he would be zigzagging all over the Atlantic and probably arrive with a catamaran. Btw Mct, there's a gunboat floating about 200m offshore there so check it's location and mention it to Mark if it's anywhere near his route!

[mct]

Originally Posted by monte

Ah yeah this low forming off NY wasn't showing until today's forecast. I've been keeping an eye on the weather on Marks route while watching the weather here as we have a tropical wave coming over us.
The latest grib shows a fairly intense low developing off NY Tuesday. Still a fair way out for a forecast but something to keep an eye on for sure. His rhumb line is close to Bermuda so that's an option. What is his current position?
The trough over him is likely causing the light airs he's currently experiencing and maybe some thunderstorm activity.
Take this info with a grain of salt, I wouldn't want to be responsible for the forecast information or advising a course change at this stage.
Attachment 102819Attachment 102820

Thanks for another model, Monte.

Bermuda: not an option ... cos current weather and fcast (next few days) has already meant him holding back from Bermuda with biggish wind+sea there now and next few days.

Position: not reported daily, as per OP. Set off Sunday, so pick a spot likely 4-500 miles (now four full days) from St martin, probably NW rather than rhum line NNW, sorta half the distance to Bermuda, bit more, something like 25-26N 68W, ish. Good enough.

As things stand I will tell him to make Abacos perhaps three days west.

[mct]

Originally Posted by monte

Yep I think it's fair enough. Mct will filter out any irrelevant crap and do what Mark asked him to do which is give him a heads up of any changes to the original forecast and offer advice. Mct is just asking for input to make the best judgment. I haven't sailed that area but from what I understand, crossing the Gulf Stream in a northerly is not a good idea. I'm sure Mct won't be forwarding all the suggestions we make to Mark, otherwise he would be zigzagging all over the Atlantic and probably arrive with a catamaran. Btw Mct, there's a gunboat floating about 200m offshore there so check it's location and mention it to Mark if it's anywhere near his route!

All correct, thanks Monte

Pls report position of gunboat if available. Is is a gun boat with guns - or a Gunboat catamaran $4million thing?

[Blue Stocking]

You ever heard the story about flies, vinegar and honey. For the record, your original post was not clear as to its purpose.

[mct]

Originally Posted by Blue Stocking

You ever heard the story about flies, vinegar and honey. For the record, your original post was not clear as to its purpose.

Go on then, you tell me the story about flies, vinegar and honey. Or actually, could it wait until later, please?

It was pretty clear that I didsn't want it cluttered, wasn't it? How clear do you want it to be?

It was clear enough for Monte (alone) to go find use his own sources for likely wx on that route.

Could perhaps the mods please edit this thread? Monte's contribution and my thanks is valid and should stay to encourage similar. Could all other be deleted, please (including this one...)

Thanks in anticipation.