Western Caribbeans and El Nino

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by StuM

I see Zee is still flogging that old myth about ENSO cycles changing in May. A simple perusal of the historical data disproves that.



The 2014-15 El Niño started in the Oct/Nov/Dec quarter for example.



If you can see any regular May cycle change in either the graph or the quarterly data here, you're a better man than I am Gunga Din.


El Ni?o and La Ni?a Years and Intensities

the current changes each may. not jan not dec not other months but MAY., not myth. watch current for self.
past 2 years has been intermittent but COLD current with this years STRONG and wide current, also COLD. not el nino. patricia happened the last el nino we endured here. 2015.i watch that current not the words of others. i find i am more
accurate. oops

[zeehag]

enso follows the current. watch the symptoms to see the change. it is obvious.

[Riggerman]

@ dcorbert I would love to your opinion and/or inputs. I have been in the Rio for the last 7 years. But I have failed to take notes of the trends. You can reach Me at mrjfortin@yahoo.com S/V Ete Infin at Tijax Marina in mid September. Be well and fair wind.

[DefinitelyMe]

El Niño years are generally associated with stronger than average Atlantic trade winds and lower than average Atlantic hurricane formation. In many respects the exact opposite of what generally happens in the Pacific.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by DefinitelyMe

El Niño years are generally associated with stronger than average Atlantic trade winds and lower than average Atlantic hurricane formation. In many respects the exact opposite of what generally happens in the Pacific.

I would like to research that more, do you have any references?

[StuM]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

I would like to research that more, do you have any references?

I gave one reference in post #42. (Which directly contradicted Zee's previous contention)


Here's a couple more which say the same thing:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2010JCLI3705.1


https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...rricane-season


All meteorologists apparenly agree - wind sheer in El Niño years reduces the likelihood of Atlantic/Caribbean hurricanes.


Interesting that the Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation is also a factor. With it apparently entering the cool phase, overall hurricane activity is likely to decrease in coming years, especially if they are El Niño years.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by StuM

I gave one reference in post #42. (Which directly contradicted Zee's previous contention)


Here's a couple more which say the same thing:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2010JCLI3705.1


https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...rricane-season


All meteorologists apparenly agree - wind sheer in El Niño years reduces the likelihood of Atlantic/Caribbean hurricanes.


Interesting that the Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation is also a factor. With it apparently entering the cool phase, overall hurricane activity is likely to decrease in coming years, especially if they are El Niño years.

Thanks.