Weather, and the Future of Cruising

[off-the-grid]

Global warming, climate shift, natural occurrence, caused by man?
Whatever you want to call it and whatever you believe, there's no arguing that the weather/climate is changing, becoming less predictable, and just stranger.

One winter aboard in NJ was enough for me, so I'm heading South this year. But to what? Although not as cold as up here, if I remember correctly, there was ice as far South as Miami last winter. As I type this, NJ is still dodging a bullet. Those of you who've seen real weather and deal with this every year may laugh, but around here you'd think it was the end of the world. Last time we got hit, I was playing with my Star Wars action figures in my mom's basement. The fact is, there's no denying that things are changing.

Do you think it's just going to get worse and less predictable? Maybe longer hurricane seasons, maybe a shift in the season? Maybe places that haven't been hit before, or at least in a very long time, start seeing BIG storms? Will people will start cruising less, or more, or maybe part time-ers/snowbirds will start coming and going different times of year?

Or have I just watched too many Discover specials about rogue waves, super volcanoes, and mega tsunamis?

[sneuman]

If the ocean temperatures remain unusually high, such as this year, it is not unreasonable to expect stronger hurricanes farther north. Just out of curiousity, I checked one buoy off the Delmarva coast - average for this time of year is about 72F and it's now about 79F.

[markpierce]

Let's put it this way. The Vikings were able to reach North America a thousand years ago when/because the climate was warmer than now, and northern Europeans were able to make wine. ... And the Black Death devastated the human population when the earth cooled back down. But on the bright side of global cooling, hard liquor and beer became dominant in Northern Europe.

[AnchorageGuy]

There has been a lot of discussion in the north that our blizzards and 8 feet of snow was a sure sign global warming does not exist. I won't get into a discussion on fact or fiction but in fact global warming would create colder snowier winters since it draws more moisture into the air making the general climate, summer or winter, wetter. Weather patterns tend to run in cycles. This is still part of a ten year cycle for more and stronger big storms like hurricanes. But the switch can be thrown tomorrow and we could enter a different cycle with different weather patterns, or maybe not. We make cruising decisions based on where we like to go and where we can afford to go and take whatever weather comes our way. It will be cold in the winter in the north and warm in the south and the further south you go the warmer it gets. That is pretty much all I need to know about climate to decide where I want to be. I can guarantee you will drive yourself crazy if you try and over analyze all of this. Chuck

[shipofools]

a better discusion is - how many of the traditional weather patterns that we depend on for routing are still valid? Guessing that all the books/sources are going to need updating, and the reality is based on prevailing weather conditions they are all dated before the leave the press.

Cheers

[markpierce]

Originally Posted by shipofools

a better discussion is - how many of the traditional weather patterns that we depend on for routing are still valid? Guessing that all the books/sources are going to need updating, and the reality is based on prevailing weather conditions they are all dated before the leave the press.

Cheers

Mariners will be among the first to experience, observe and record any changes.

[off-the-grid]

Oh yeah...if it doesn't exist then how do they explain about 5 100+ degree days in NJ in July.

Good point, though. You can't control it, so either live with the risk, or sell the boat and move into a cave.

I guess more so I meant, do you think cruising patterns will change, and what shipofools said.

[RayW]

This is one of those hot topics for me (pun intended ) Yes, I think that weather will become less predictable and warmer. We are still coming out of an ice age that got its coldest about 20,000 years ago. Its been getting warmer ever since.

[munkey906]

" there's no arguing that the weather/climate is changing, becoming less predictable, and just stranger."

is it that the weather is less predictable, or that you are simply noticing that it is simply unpredictable and strange and hadn't noticed it before (or just assumed that it was predictable and normal before)?

If anything we are now so much more advanced in our ability to model and predict and measure weather than we used to be that it only appears that the weather is less predictable ... we simply used to have no idea about how strange and chaotic it really was.

way back when: "hey a storm (oh it happens all the time) is coming... say that was a large storm wasn't it?"

now: "a category 4 storm (which has only struck here 3 times before!), with outer windspeeds of 83.2 mph having a radius of 314 miles and moving at 23.4 mph will strike at 8:27 pm and move inland on this exact trajectory...(next day) oh wait... not it was a category 5 and made landfall at 9:23 pm... sheesh this weather is so unpredictable!"

"Maybe places that haven't been hit before, or at least in a very long time, start seeing BIG storms?"

Well, under statistical theory even under very stable weather patterns this should be true... 100 year storms come around about well.. every 100 years right? Anyway, how do we know that they should happen every 100 years?

"Or have I just watched too many Discover specials about rogue waves, super volcanoes, and mega tsunamis?"

Yeah, most likely. Keep in mind that once you accept the theory that weather is "changing" into a new regime of weather, all of your day to day observations will only confirm your theory... and all of your previous memories of weather will be colored by your new assumption about reality.

There's also observer bias to consider: from afar things appear normal, but the closer you examine them the stranger and more complex they appear..

But what you want to know is our opinion about weather change and how it will affect cruising and sailing?

People will always be sailing and cruising as long as it's economically feasible and there are oceans upon which to sail... and that's more important to consider... if the price of diesel goes up by a factor of 5 there will be more sailors.. if it drops there will be more power boaters.

and that will be the largest influence on how many people are sailing or boating... the price of goods related to it...

[pete33458]

Originally Posted by RayW

This is one of those hot topics for me (pun intended ) Yes, I think that weather will become less predictable and warmer. We are still coming out of an ice age that got its coldest about 20,000 years ago. Its been getting warmer ever since.

Thank you RayW!!!! Almost everyone seems to overlook this.

No question that humanity is making a contribution to the current warming trend, but warming was on the cards anyway, it is part of a cycle that has always gone on since there has been land and water.

[off-the-grid]

Originally Posted by pete33458

Thank you RayW!!!! Almost everyone seems to overlook this.

No question that humanity is making a contribution to the current warming trend, but warming was on the cards anyway, it is part of a cycle that has always gone on since there has been land and water.

Please, please, please, let's not turn this into another global warming debate. I agree with you. But that doesn't matter.

Simple fact is things are changing. How is it going to effect cruising (routes, destinations, seasons, etc.)?

[off-the-grid]

munkey906 - ok maybe not stranger and less predictable, but definitely changing. Or, can you tell me the last time there was ice in Miami? Maybe I just need to wait a few years before leaving.

On second thought, how many seasons did it last, last time NJ had winters this cold with this much snow? Maybe I do need to leave now.

[RayW]

Originally Posted by grunzster

Please, please, please, let's not turn this into another global warming debate. I agree with you. But that doesn't matter.

Simple fact is things are changing. How is it going to effect cruising (routes, destinations, seasons, etc.)?

LOL... Its an ever changing world, but slowly. What worked 50 years ago still applies, 500 years ago, maybe not. Give me a few minutes... gathering hurricane info.

[capngeo]

Blame ENSO

[off-the-grid]

Originally Posted by RayW

LOL... Its an ever changing world, but slowly. What worked 50 years ago still applies, 500 years ago, maybe not. Give me a few minutes... gathering hurricane info.

True! 50 years I'll call it a pattern, because at least dad or grandpa can tell me how it was back then. Once you get closer to 100 years, even if that is the pattern, it's just change to me, because no one alive has experienced it before.