Who will Buy the Boats?

[IdoraKeeper]

I basically gave away my old boat...not necessarily to a good home. It was a necessity. I refer all to DSDman's "What wrong with me" thread. That is who will buy these boats. Boatnicks!

[barnakiel]

Prices of plenty of the boats that surround us are, value-weighed ... (capitals self censored). Many never sell and stay on the market for ever, their owners trapped in the illusion.

See they were priced and built to mortgage-weighed reality.

Still, West Indies were crowded beyond any earlier known measure last 2013/14 season.

Someone will.

b.

[SURV69]

Anytime anyone writes anything, except maybe, a mathematical formula, the data and most certainly the interpretation of the data can be questioned.

I didn't write this article ... I didn't say the article was factually true.

But I don't think it's rocket science to say that sailing is in decline and I don't think it's unfair to say the decline began long before the latest crash of 2007.

Unlike house and cars which have value even after total destruction(House/Land ... Car/Steel), a fiberglass boat of no value actually has a negative value for most owners, such so storage and eventual disposal.

The pride an joy boat that once sailed, but sat on the hard(in a marina $$$$), and was not maintained(more $$$$), becomes a frustrating mill stone around one's neck. Without a ready buyer, that boat truly becomes the proverbial "hole in the water", which money goes into ... with absolutely no return and no way to rid one's self of it. Who knows, it might costs thousands to actually
junk the boat eventually ... after paying storage(summer and winter), for 5-10 years while waiting for that special buyer.

When I got my Person 26 ($2500 in 2008), I gave my Venture 25 away ... free.

When I got my Newport 28($1000 in 2010), I tried to give my Pearson 26 away ... no takers(they knew the cost of just "keeping" the boat). I upgraded the Pearson 26 and luckily found a buyer for $1300, after throwing in extra things ... I was absolutely tickled pink and would've dropped the price to $0 in a heartbeat ... and it(the Pearson), was a solid, clean boat with almost new sails & furler.

I knew the cost of storage(about $1200 each year), would have chewed my finances and left me regretting the continuing ownership.

[a64pilot]

Most boats are a Luxury item, like beach houses or airplanes.
All have taken a huge hit in the last 20 or so yrs, and it's been the last 6 or 8 that seems worst.
I believe it's traceable directly to how much excess income Joe six-pack has, and that has been decreasing.
Sailing is not a way of life for the vast majority of owners, it's a luxury and luxuries get cut when you can't pay bills anymore, and a great many can't.
I'm not trying to provoke any kind of political argument, but look up income inequality from whatever source you trust, then tie what years your source says that joe six pack has taken it in the shorts to your own observations of excess boat availability and shrinking values.

[denverd0n]

Originally Posted by SURV69

BUT ... if this trend continues, there will not be enough buyers for the well maintained boats either ...

I don't see that happening. I sincerely doubt that the trend will continue until there is NO ONE sailing anymore. So, eventually the trend will flatten out.

And the ratio between well-maintained boats and derelicts falls heavily in favor of the derelicts. The derelicts will eventually be scrapped. The well-maintained boats will be few enough that there will be buyers available for them.

At least, that's how I see it shaking out.

[BandB]

Originally Posted by SURV69

I didn't write this article ... I didn't say the article was factually true.

But I don't think it's rocket science to say that sailing is in decline and I don't think it's unfair to say the decline began long before the latest crash of 2007.

You cited the article. You used it as the basis of your post.

As to your "rocket science" conclusion, is sailing in decline? What do you base that on? Why are marinas and waterways more crowded than ever then? Are you referring to a specific segment of sailing? Are you saying the number of people sailing or the amount of sailing each person does? I never studied rocket science but I haven't seen that. And so I'd like to know either the basis of the numbers in the article or what you base it on? Where I live the kids signing up for lessons is at a high as well.

I'm not saying your assertion isn't true. Just saying I haven't seen it except since 2008. Sales of sailboats were certainly at an all time high prior to the economic issues.

[Cheechako]

Yep, I've been wondering where all these boats will go too. My impression is there are a lot of sailboats in marinas not being used. All boats and Sailboats are definitely a buyers market. There was a nice little custom design 30' diesel Benford for sale a couple months ago.. she told me "by the end of the week it will probably be $5k". Right now there's a Islander 36 asking $12k. Long fin kel, skeg rudder, diesel, Pretty nice boats.
For non liveaboard cruisers etc, I think people want to get to their anchorage in a couple hours rather than a day. If you only have 2-3 days you can either try to sail somewhere and back with the dog and kids all weekend or be there Friday night!

[BandB]

Originally Posted by Cheechako

My impression is there are a lot of sailboats in marinas not being used.!

A lot anchored the same way. And take a drive out through the country side in areas near water. You'll see boats all along the way sitting behind houses and having not been moved for years.

Someone does need to develop an industry for junking old boats. There have been a lot of boats given away and sold for a dollar or similar and the buyer was the one who got the bad deal.

[Cheechako]

Yeah, the cost of ownership is high for sailboats. With a powerboat it can sit on a trailer most the year and be launched in 15 mins. It's too bad really. I don't think sailing is dead, but it seems to have slowed down some for sure. I was looking at the results for some of the local races in the local sailing mag the other day, and some classes had like 3 entries in them. Heck, there used to be a dozen or so....

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by SURV69

But I don't think it's rocket science to say that sailing is in decline and I don't think it's unfair to say the decline began long before the latest crash of 2007.

.

And what do you base this on? It sure isn't supported by the number of boats I see in the water in the NE.

Sailing may be in decline as a population percentage, but there doesn't appear to be less total.

[jwing]

Seems to me that these "Saving Sailing" articles are coming from the prespective of people who think sailing is racing. Those numbers may be diminishing, and probably related to the demographic bubble of the baby boomers moving past the age where racing is the prime sailing activity.

The boomers are now retiring and many are leaving the economic and political mess that their generation is making of the USA. The ex-pat Yank population is exploding in Central and South America, but many boomers are buying cruising boats instead, this is why cruising areas are more crowded.

Meanwhile, new boats are being manufactured everyday and old fiberglass boats are still hanging in there. The cost of driving to the lake or ocean will become prohibititive unless a different automobile fuel source is developed. I think that people need to be very careful about buying boats from now on, especially the intermediate-size, weekend cruisers. As time goes on, the designs that are new and expensive today will be come old, and today's affordable boats, which are already 30 years old, will be unsellably obsolete unless they are super special in some way. It's kind of like the greater fool scam - at some point there will be a last buyer for every boat (even if it still floats) and I think there are a lot of boats out there now that are on their last owner or their penultimate owner. The key is to buy a boat that will be your last boat or buy a boat that will be desirable to somebody in the future. Think of all the choices the future buyers will have available to them and how the future economic/climate/everything-else conditions will inform what they consider desirable. We might be seeing that the demand for racing boats is diminishing, for instance.

The boat I own might be on its last owner, but I have so little invested in it that I won't mind if I can't sell it a few years from now.

[SkiprJohn]

It would be interesting to see if the number of registered and documented sailing vessels has declined over the years. I know prices have declined significantly over the years. I've been watching prices since the early 80s.

Here in Hawaii the prices for some are plummeting because there are very few places to keep a boat. State slips are not transferable and there are only a couple of liveaboard marinas (private) in the whole state. If you have a slip here in Hawaii it is of much more long term value than the boat.

I don't know how other states are in respect to availability of slips but here where lawmakers don't like boaters they are becoming harder and harder to find.

[ArtM]

The problem is that used boat pricing doesn't match new boat pricing. Who would pay for a used boat that is more expensive than a new, or newer one?

The price of used boats is, I believe, widely misunderstood. Here is my pricing model.

In general, it should be roughly the half cost of a new boat minus the cost of bringing that used boat up to half-new condition, or plus if the boat is in better than half-new condition.

Now that is not really an easy thing to measure for all parts, but for major components it's a quantifiable figure - sails, chainplates, engines, props, lines, pullies, winches, etc.

Next, there is an adjustment for obsolescence. In world where sailboat designs barely changed in 60 years, obsolescence is not much of a factor. In today's world, though, it is a factor. There are many small poorly laid out older designs that simply do not compare with some of the most recent designs. The catamaran yacht is relatively new, and has put a major dent in the utility of the old "reef killer" large sailing yachts.

The problem is compounded by the fact that there is no efficient means to dispose of an old boat. The parts can be salvaged, the metal can be scrapped, but the remaining fiberglass hull is nothing but a biological hazard. It costs more to get rid of a junk boat than it abandon it, or even keep it, and it costs more to repair such a boat than to buy a replacement.

There is a business opportunity for scrapping old sailboats if someone can figure out an economical process.

[barnakiel]

And given the quality of many boats built in last 20 years or so ... some have already started to fall apart on their own.

Hence the supply side will shrink promptly too ...

b.

[markpierce]

Wonder if the boat owner still pays for berthing? (The Coast Guard station is just yards away.)