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Old 03-03-2014, 16:47   #181
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

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Originally Posted by jwing View Post
... reducing the demand is more cost effective than:
1) not reducing the demand;
2) investing in expensive technology to make energy efficiency improvement without first reducing the demand.
Which, to bring it back to cruisers' needs, is a big takeaway. I get asked a lot about my solar and wind install, and my stock answer is to first reduce consumption before adding new systems. No more tungsten bulbs. All LED nav lights. Keel-cooled reefer is ideal, but definitely have ample insulation. Etc. Then talk about solar. And lastly wind. Something about getting one's priorities straight...

Greg
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Old 03-03-2014, 17:07   #182
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

On the 'apples for apples' kick:

I personally think it's a mistake to contrast a mature technology (large scale power reticulation) with a nascent technology (large scale power decentralisation)

New topic:

Hydro has a great present in some parts of the world, but the viable footprint could be predicted to expand to a great future across a larger proportion of the planet,

given that warming will increase the moisture burden in the atmosphere, and given that fossil fuels are sliding down an inexorable supply decline, which shale oil serves only to disguise.

(particularly given the large amounts of energy required to extract it: it relies in turn on unrealistically cheap natural gas.

The nett energy yield is minimal, sometimes even negative, but there's an arbitrage tradeoff which currently makes it profitable ... which an economist can love but an environmentalist cannot.

It's a bit like selling your vege patch at a very attractive price to a neighbour, even though you happen to know s/he plans to use it to undermine your house.)

- - -

A problem with hydro, though, might be that a more energetic climate is likely in most places to accentuate swings in weather, including rainfall amounts: feast or famine is not great for reliability of supply, and doesn't encourage investment.

So the rainclouds, at least in some locations, may NOT have silver linings.
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Old 03-03-2014, 17:34   #183
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

<< all financial decisions should be made on a life-cycle cost basis >>

Are you saying, there are no other inputs to a financial decision?

Like, taking a hypothetical example at random, what if, through some crazy, perverse trick of fate, the collective survival prospects of our species ran counter to perceived financial 'imperatives' for individuals?

That's a bit far-fetched, so I'll take a present analogy (also hypothetical, but tangible and present-day)

Where I live, prostitution is legal. Not something I personally think is the best alternative, but that's how it is.

If I had a twelve year old daughter, with exceptional looks and modest intellectual accomplishments (getting the former from her mother ... and the latter from - now, where was I? Oh yes )

Would this a good time for me to take her aside and tell her the facts of life?

"Listen, precious, you're not the quickest bunny in the forest, but you's sho nuff the purdiest!"

I don't think I need to go on, do I?
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Old 03-03-2014, 17:38   #184
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

Sorry about the tub-thumping rant-fest, but I just had a meeting cancelled :-)


I guess my larger point, or one of them, is this:

To shift from a mature technology to an immature one can be crippled unless a bunch of 'early adopters' act contrary to own their prudent / financial self interest.

There are economies of scale which have to be boot-strapped into existence, and this is never more true than something involving massive up-front infrastructural costs.

It's no accident that, in my own country (NZ), hydro schemes are almost impossible to initiate in the modern free-market private enterprise world. It just doesn't stack up, financially.

Yet we have a rich history of successful projects, leaving a huge legacy of dams and power schemes, long since fully paid for, initially by the taxpayer and then by power users, delivering VERY inexpensive power, and doing negligible harm, on the scale of the alternatives, to anything or anyone ... and most importantly, to the very fabric of the future.

Increasingly, these existing hydro schemes are being devolved. This means: sold off to private enterprise, which charges for all power at the marginal rate of the most expensive kilowatt.

This makes perfect sense to me, when I see the world through the simplifications and assumptions embedded in economics.

It makes no sense to me, when I see the world.
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Old 03-03-2014, 17:58   #185
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

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I don't mind be mistaken once, but I want to be accurate the second time. Where in that report does it say that petrol cars are cleaner than coal-fired plants?
Sorry, I'm mixing myself up on petrol/diesel terminology.

Figure 1 on page 2 shows that a new diesel car is cleaner than an electric car that is using power generated by a power plant fired predominately by coal.
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Old 03-03-2014, 18:09   #186
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

Did Captain Paris make it to port?
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Old 03-03-2014, 19:14   #187
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

Who cares if Captain Port made it to Paris, we're trying to have an argument here!

Ooops, that just slipped out !

Sorry, my bad, here's the latest:
It was a rough entry to Cape Town, as a gale blew from the south east and winds were consistent at some 35-40 miles per hour. There was in addition, a great deal of shipping traffic rounding the Cape, going from and to Europe or Asia. When approaching land, there is a fear of over sleeping and ending up on the rocks. I was awake for the 36 hours, given the winds, traffic and fast approaching land.
The boat is now being given the attention it needs. Sails off to the loft, boom to the spar makers and me to a hotel. The damage to the boat is even more extensive than I had thought and could be seen from the dock. But all will be taken care of as there are excellent facilities and talent here in Cape Town. All are agreed that coming to port was a wise choice.
Catherine and I will be touring a wine district today and flying home this weekend. Delivery crew will bring the boat back to the USA. Itís been quite an adventure.
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Old 03-03-2014, 19:19   #188
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

Sorry, jwing, in my haste I clipped the quote from the wrong post when I lit into the writer of

<< all financial decisions should be made on a life-cycle cost basis >>

Of course, you were agreeing with the premise put by another poster, but you were narrowing the context (I take it you meant: assuming it to be a financial decision, then I agree that it should be made on such and such a basis)

So to clarify, I don't disagree with that as a basis for making evaluations on financial grounds, and my argument was in any case not with you.
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Old 03-03-2014, 19:26   #189
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

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Originally Posted by Andrew Troup View Post
Sorry about the tub-thumping rant-fest, but I just had a meeting cancelled :-)


I guess my larger point, or one of them, is this:

To shift from a mature technology to an immature one can be crippled unless a bunch of 'early adopters' act contrary to own their prudent / financial self interest.

There are economies of scale which have to be boot-strapped into existence, and this is never more true than something involving massive up-front infrastructural costs.

It's no accident that, in my own country (NZ), hydro schemes are almost impossible to initiate in the modern free-market private enterprise world. It just doesn't stack up, financially.

Yet we have a rich history of successful projects, leaving a huge legacy of dams and power schemes, long since fully paid for, initially by the taxpayer and then by power users, delivering VERY inexpensive power, and doing negligible harm, on the scale of the alternatives, to anything or anyone ... and most importantly, to the very fabric of the future.

Increasingly, these existing hydro schemes are being devolved. This means: sold off to private enterprise, which charges for all power at the marginal rate of the most expensive kilowatt.

This makes perfect sense to me, when I see the world through the simplifications and assumptions embedded in economics.

It makes no sense to me, when I see the world.
Where does that inexpensive power go? when I was living in Picton, 2 years ago, I was paying 35 cents per Kwh! It's about 10 cents in florida! maybe a bit less.

I read an article that talked about the modest profits made by NZ power companies, it worked out to $100 profit per man woman and child. I found that really shocking. I don't know off hand the profit margin per capita in the US, but since my family of four only spends about $400 per person per year in florida I find it hard to imagine it's anywhere near that.

Is this is what in store for NZ with further "asset sales"

PS, Stanley lives down the block from me. He's been home for several weeks driving his Land Rover.
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Old 03-03-2014, 19:32   #190
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

Would not have thought a Land Rover would have been his choice of vehicle given his so called "green" leanings. My Land Rovers have always been thirsty buggers. But they do leak oil back into the ground, so that may be a saving grace.

Coops.
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Old 03-03-2014, 19:43   #191
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

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Where does that inexpensive power go? when I was living in Picton, 2 years ago, I was paying 35 cents per Kwh! It's about 10 cents in florida! maybe a bit less....
Prior to the economic reforms of the 80s,
it was inexpensive to produce, and to buy.

It is now a bit more expensive to produce,
and a whole lot more expensive to buy.
(as you point out, and as I
mentioned, including the 1ary reason -
"pricing at the marginal cost")
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Old 03-03-2014, 20:31   #192
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

If you don't know about it, read about how Chicago sold all its city streets so it could pay its bills for 6 months. Now the city streets are owned by Arabs who immediately doubled the parking fees, and now the city needs the Arabs permission to have a parade.
This is the kind of political corruption and that is hard to undo, selling the future for short-term gain.

FAIL: The Reader's Parking Meter Investigation | Feature | Chicago
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Old 03-03-2014, 21:26   #193
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

The City of Chicago is hopelessly broke. Their last published report disclosed total debt of $31.6b. Moody's say that Chicago has an unfunded pension liability of $36b while the City says that it is a mere $19b. On top of that the state of Illinois has an unfunded pension liability in excess of $100b.

Unlike the Fed, these guys can't print money as required.

Back to Stanley Paris.
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Old 04-03-2014, 05:28   #194
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

And I don't want to get political here. a conservative govenor also leased the Inidian toll road to a Chinese firm. The lease includes all kinds of provisions for the state taxpayers to reimburse the Chinese when the road is down for major problems like the flooding last summer that closed it. But hey, he balanced the budget for that one year.
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Old 04-03-2014, 13:01   #195
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Re: Stanley Paris Calls it Quits

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Sorry, jwing, in my haste I clipped the quote from the wrong post when I lit into the writer of

<< all financial decisions should be made on a life-cycle cost basis >>

Of course, you were agreeing with the premise put by another poster, but you were narrowing the context (I take it you meant: assuming it to be a financial decision, then I agree that it should be made on such and such a basis)

So to clarify, I don't disagree with that as a basis for making evaluations on financial grounds, and my argument was in any case not with you.

No worries. I agree with your premise. Life-cycle cost analysis is flawed in several ways - foremost is how to assign costs that are not directly incurred. That's why fossil fuels are so financially attractive. On the plus side: they are easy to extract, have a very high energy density, and the infrastructure is well-established. The big negatives - environmental damage and dependency on corporations and governments - are almost impossible to monetize, especially on a personal finance level.

When I decided that I want to consume less fuel, the easiest way for me to do so was to buy a small car. There were alternatives that were far more cost-effective, and they all included not buying a small car. In fact, it was more cost effective to to nothing, that is to continue to drive my Ford F150 with the big V8 and not change my driving habits, than it was to purchase any fuel-sipping automobile. But my decision was not completely based on my own financial best interest; there were other factors.
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