Vendee Globe Starts Today, Facts, Video, Discussion

[SV DestinyAscen]

There's also a strong current that pushes north if one moves further west along Brasil - not sure if it flows as hard during this season but it was a nice push toBarbados . Might be wrong direction for these boats this.

[Bleemus]

Personally surprised Armel has not made a covering move on Alex. Old racing adage that if you are winning you stay between your competition and the finish. Alex is taking a slight risk going farther east but he is leveraging an advantage and Armel is not covering yet. Interesting

Once Alex hits the SEasterlies he will pass Armel quite quickly on his good foil. By the time he gets out of trades north of the equator he will need a big lead heading into the final days. Hoping he pulls it off to be the first Brit to win since RKJ.

[Polux]

Covering move? Alex is only at 37nm...on the paper and is only making 4.1K while Alex is making 14.5k....but Armel is coming out of the no wind zone and Alex is entering and with that course will be making much more miles on the no wind zone than what Armel has made. Besides after passing that one is on a worse position to pass the next one.

Of course the wind information can be wrong and I believe Alex is gambling on that.
https://gis.ee/vg/

[Juho]

Originally Posted by Bleemus

Personally surprised Armel has not made a covering move on Alex. Old racing adage that if you are winning you stay between your competition and the finish. Alex is taking a slight risk going farther east but he is leveraging an advantage and Armel is not covering yet. Interesting

He has now turned to the right, closer to Alex Thomson's track. But he must believe in getting better winds on the western route up.

Maybe North Atlantic will offer some complex large scale routing alternatives, and thereby some big gambling opportunities.

[Bleemus]

Originally Posted by Juho

He has now turned to the right, closer to Alex Thomson's track. But he must believe in getting better winds on the western route up.

Maybe North Atlantic will offer some complex large scale routing alternatives, and thereby some big gambling opportunities.

He made the move a bit late in my opinion but if he believes the western side is better and it turns out to be true he has done the right thing. A quick glance at gribs shows he will be in stronger headwinds than Alex. Foils hurt upwind performance somewhat so perhaps Alex will have an advantage without his but he still has a stub sticking out that will be a drag. Only time will tell.

[SV DestinyAscen]

In about half an hour we will get the 5am update.

[Pelagic]

Alex down to 4knts, Armel just under 10knts....28nm apart

[Davidhoy]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Alex down to 4knts, Armel just under 10knts....28nm apart

And who was it that said that sailboat racing is boring?!? Even from home, or rather the cockpit of my boat at anchor off Bimini, it's still riveting to catch up on the latest position reports and weather patterns. We have a new race at the front of the fleet, and it's very exciting to watch. Personally I'm rooting for Alex, but both the leaders are good men worthy of victory.

Regards,
David

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by Davidhoy

Personally I'm rooting for Alex, but both the leaders are good men worthy of victory.

Regards,
David

I am "routing" ([emoji57] ) for both of them as this is a real tactical challenge.

Advantage is still with Armel as his foils are undamaged.

However Alex can tactically fine tune from behind and hope that Armel does not simply cover at about 100nm ahead.

If Alex wins, it will be because of a major mistake by Armel..... I just don't see that happening.

[Davidhoy]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

I am "routing" ([emoji57] ) for both of them as this is a real tactical challenge.

Advantage is still with Armel as his foils are undamaged.

However Alex can tactically fine tune from behind and hope that Armel does not simply cover at about 100nm ahead.

If Alex wins, it will be because of a major mistake by Armel..... I just don't see that happening.

Generally agree, but I don't think it will take any major mistake on either of their parts, just a little one. With them so close, and the majority of the rest of the race on starboard tack, the loss of Alex's foil will not be as significant. This is what makes it so much fun to watch :-)

[Juho]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

However Alex can tactically fine tune from behind and hope that Armel does not simply cover at about 100nm ahead.

Maybe 100nm behind is far enough to allow taking a completely different route. I mean catching some weather pattern that is not a viable option for a boat 100nm ahead. In smaller scale races covering is easier than in races where distance between rivals can be 100nm.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by Juho

Maybe 100nm behind is far enough to allow taking a completely different route. I mean catching some weather pattern that is not a viable option for a boat 100nm ahead. In smaller scale races covering is easier than in races where distance between rivals can be 100nm.

I think you were right when you said that Alex should have turned and followed Armel 15 hours ago. Then he would have managed to stay at about 100nm from Armel.

Only time will tell but even if he managed to be at only 27nm from Armel, Alex is now at the center of a hole without wind making 4k while Armel is sailing away at 14k.

The positions are inverted now and it all depends (in what regards to have been more advantageous the option you proposed) in the time Alex will take for going out of that hole. He has already lost 27nm in 3 hours and we will lose more NM quickly on the next hours.

In about 6 hours Armel will reach another wind hole but he is in a better position than Alex to cross it. It seems that Alex agrees since he is trying to bring his boat to the position where Armel is.

So much about Armel covering Alex moves. it seems Alex is doing that for him

But there is a lot of sailing to be done till they clear this treacherous wind zone and get clear trade winds. It seems to me about 2 days for Armel, Probably 3 for Alex.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by SV DestinyAscen

...

What I've found humorous the last couple of days is how French ppl lament armel bad luck and chalking AT's success to fast boat and good luck. He's had bad luck for the entire Indian and south pacifuc. Mother nature roots for none.

Well, someone is saying that Alex had a lot of luck, even if he is not complaining

"Alex Thomson (Hugo Boss): “It is very light winds right now, just three to four knots, I am not really going very fast and I don’t imagine I will go very fast today at all, I have to wait for the high pressure to come past me. I will lose some of the miles I have been gaining. It was the luck of the draw. It could just as easily be Jérémie catching up to me or I could have been Armel going another eight hundred away from me. "
News - Have the Tables Turned? - Vendée Globe 2016-2017

[Polux]

But the fact is that Hugo Boss is sailing so well without that foil that some question themselves if the foil was broken so badly as Alex described it and if it was not a strategy to give a false idea to the competitiveness of the boat being compromised. And it is not the French that are talking about it but the Italians (that are not on the race):

"MA SE NON AVESSE ROTTO IL FOIL?
L’inglese, evidentemente, è tornato a sfruttare l’unico foil che gli è rimasto ma sono molti, sul web, quelli che sospettano che l’inglese potrebbe avere mentito sulla sua avaria (pochissime le foto da bordo, barca sbandatissima durante le riprese video davanti alle Kerguelen forse per nascondere proprio il foil di dritta): questo per ragioni di pre-tattica. Se così fosse, la sua mente sarebbe veramente diabolica!"
Incredibile rimonta di Thomson (aveva rotto davvero il foil?): Boss contro Sciacallo, chi vincerà?

I think they are crazy; Alex Thompson would never go for such a cheap trick and besides that we can see that the boat sails differently with a foil or without a foil and on these images that is clear, even if we do not see the foil, or the lack of it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgg8wz2UuSI

But the truth is that the boat sails remarkably well without that foil and the loss is not big, otherwise he would have lost significantly not only to Armel but also to Beyou.

Edit: and on this more extensive footage we can see that the foil is not there, at least a big part of it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLobesQDSAU

[Pelagic]

Since breaking the foil, Alex has been mostly sailing downwind

However when reaching on the broken foil tack, i assume he would be making a lot more leeway, especially on a close reach.

Polux, my question...??

Can we really tell unless they are sailing side by side with identical conditions, if Alex is seriously handicapped by the broken foil?