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hard-a-ground · 15-02-2017, 14:54

Hi all, I am jumping into a large boat - on the ocean this time.

I need to move the boat down the East coast after purchasing it. So the mechanics of the move I think we can handle. I want to anticipate the weather before we all show up though. Are folks sailing off the east coast (NJ) using land based weather information? Or is there a top secret mariner weather system for predictions.

I use the "windy" app on my phone for local lake racing. I guess i'll use this same app to predict conditions off the coast???

thanks in advance.

cheers,
Frank.

Pete O Static · 15-02-2017, 17:57

It really depends on where you are going and how far offshore you will be and for how long.

Personally, I cringe when I hear people get their entire weather route briefing from an "app". By all means, use an app as part of the overall package but I find most are not that reliable.

IF you are going to sail in an area you are not familiar with, you can download a Pilot Chart for that area and the time of year you are planning. This will give you over a Century of accumulated weather data and give you a good idea of what to expect in the way of winds, waves and currents for any given month.

Don't trust any forecast much beyond 48 hours, apps like windy will give you a week but realistically, the accuracy beyond 48 hours drops substantially. Many people use GRIB's but the thing to know about GRIB's is that they are simply a computer model based on raw data that has had no input from an actual Meteorologist. When a Meteorologist builds a forecast, GRIB data is only a small portion of the puzzle.

NOAA and the OPC put out awesome weather products online. If you are going to be in port every couple of days, then get your weather via the internet and use the VHF when on the water to validate the forecast you have. If you are going to be offshore for periods beyond say a few days, then you might consider renting a SAT phone and using NOAA's FTP service. http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/ftpmail.txt

At the very least, a Pilot Chart will give you some idea of what to expect.

**skipmac** · 15-02-2017, 18:54

I hope you aren't considering moving a boat from NJ anytime soon. This is no time to be sailing off the coast of the NE.

bvander · 16-02-2017, 05:25

Peter O Static is bang on
People rave about the accuracy of their favorite app, but most apps should be rated on their sexiness. Most apps are viewers of a computer model, like GFS or Euro, it's the output from these model runs which provide the input to an app.
Most models are fairly accurate to 12 hours and reasonable out to 36, after that predictions are cast in quano.
Look at output from different models and if the agree then your confidence in forcast goes up, if they don't then confidence should go down.
Have multiple sources for weather, and use some that have a human in the loop.

**boatman61** · 16-02-2017, 05:43

An owner decided to go against my advice to stay in port and chose to follow an Aps predictions (Accuweather)..
8hrs later we got hit 30+knot winds on the nose and short sharp sea's of 2-3metres on the nose for the next 18hrs.. not nice in the Med on a full decked cat..

hard-a-ground · 17-02-2017, 00:24

Thanks for the response.

Background... Taking a Norseman 400 monohull from Long Island to Delaware via the East River channel and open Atlantic to Cape May. My tentative plan is for April 22 week. BUT, I don't understand how to evaluate whether that is a decent time window. This forum came to mind...

The mechanics of working the boat we can handle. This boat has SSB - but I don't know a lot about that system right now. I will be on the boat completing the sale in early March. Perhaps I'll spend some time learning the SSB during that visit.

4 technically minded, part time sailors in total on the boat. A lot of dinghy/small keel boat time, introduction ASA certifications, but we have sailed in "simple" charter situations - nothing complex.

So... let me track down some of the thoughts here and see if i can come up with a weather plan. Why the April timing? simple - the annual marina slip in Maryland starts in April. Can wait. just money. wait how long?

hard-a-ground · 17-02-2017, 00:40

Pilot Chart. There you go! A thing of beauty.

cheers.

hard-a-ground · 17-02-2017, 01:37

Looks okay to me in late April. Pilot Chart leads me to expect 11-15 knts wind(Force 4). From about any random direction. Maybe 10% chance of 12'+ swells. 3% ~ 5% chance of a Force 8 gale, avg temps of ~10 deg C.

Likely a little cold still out there on night watch - bring the warm clothes. With nice protected cockpit, should have decent chance of pulling this off.

Nice.

**skipmac** · 17-02-2017, 03:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by hard-a-ground

Thanks for the response.

Background... Taking a Norseman 400 monohull from Long Island to Delaware via the East River channel and open Atlantic to Cape May. My tentative plan is for April 22 week. BUT, I don't understand how to evaluate whether that is a decent time window. This forum came to mind...

The mechanics of working the boat we can handle. This boat has SSB - but I don't know a lot about that system right now. I will be on the boat completing the sale in early March. Perhaps I'll spend some time learning the SSB during that visit.

4 technically minded, part time sailors in total on the boat. A lot of dinghy/small keel boat time, introduction ASA certifications, but we have sailed in "simple" charter situations - nothing complex.

So... let me track down some of the thoughts here and see if i can come up with a weather plan. Why the April timing? simple - the annual marina slip in Maryland starts in April. Can wait. just money. wait how long?

Looking at the pilot charts will give you some information on the odds of your planned time window being a good weather window. BUT, you really have to wait until a few days before departure to confirm which way the odds have fallen. That time of year you could get really nice weather but that early in the season you do have a pretty good chance of seeing a late season nor'easter blow in.

Starting a week or so before departure start checking all available weather information. Windy app, NWS marine forecasts, Sailing Weather - Marine Weather Forecasts for Sailors and Adventurers - PassageWeather and even the local TV weather forecasts. Then make your decision for go/no go the day you are ready to leave.

Warning! Sailing on a boat's or crew's schedule is a dangerous thing. You have everyone with time off work and a deadline to reach a destination. The pressure to meet that schedule is a very strong incentive to ignore the weather and "just go for it". Don't! The decision to go should be based solely on whether or not conditions will be safe for boat and crew.

Wait how long? Wait until conditions are right. This far in advance there's no way to predict how long the wait might be. Could be a day or three, could be a week or three. If weather outside is iffy then you can anchor out at Sandy Hook and wait until it gets better. From Sandy Hook to Cape May is an overnight in good conditions so you only need a good 48 hour window to make the trip.

**skipmac** · 17-02-2017, 03:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by boatman61

An owner decided to go against my advice to stay in port and chose to follow an Aps predictions (Accuweather)..
8hrs later we got hit 30+knot winds on the nose and short sharp sea's of 2-3metres on the nose for the next 18hrs.. not nice in the Med on a full decked cat..

Proving again the peril of ignoring Boatman's advice.

Pete O Static · 17-02-2017, 04:34

Frank

I sailed a 44 ft Jeanneau from NYC to Annapolis via Cape May a few years ago. Left in the afternoon and rounded Cape May the next morning. Wind was from the NE the entire way and had a good ride. It was late September. You wont be "outside" for all that long, so getting a decent and accurate weather forecast prior to departure shouldn't be a problem. In fact, you will likely have cell coverage, depending how far from the coast you go. Your VHF will easily have maritime weather updates during the passage.

In April, I think keeping warm will be an issue. Dress in layers and keep dry. Have fun!

barnakiel · 17-02-2017, 04:34

Unless you are doing some very specific thing (e.g. an off season transfer over a bad patch of water) you should be fine using plain vanilla internet sources: Windguru / Windfinder / etc. services are as good as anything else.

The best wx advice is: avoid storms. Step lightly and do not do things out of your competence zone.

Cheers,
b.

**boatman61** · 17-02-2017, 04:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by skipmac

Proving again the peril of ignoring Boatman's advice.

Should clarify.. it was after listening to a Spanish Gale Warning on the VHF... so cant claim all the credit..

Moody46CC · 17-02-2017, 05:38

I brought my boat in mid-May from Stamford, CT, to the Chesapeake Bay via East River, Jersey Coast, Delaware Bay, then C&D Canal. Just watched the NOAA forecasts for coastal waters. Predictions have high but NEVER 100% accuracy guarantee. Nonetheless, several places to duck into if weather turns sour, e.g., Barnegat Bay, Atlantic City or Cape May. Owing to the frequency of shifting sands at the mouth of some of these inlets, the buoys are likely to be floaters and may not be illuminated, so use your radar when approaching.

Winds were light and we motored more than we sailed owing to the wind coming form the SW. For a grater problem, esp. off the southern part of New Jersey. Sailed about 5 miles offshore, had both VHF and cell phone connectivity the entire way.