Science & Technology News

[N Coast Murray]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Pretty self explanatory just read the numbers . It is at 0.0°C anomaly wrt the 1979 to 2000 baseline .
Then there is this statement from the NSIDC
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Sea ice loss during the first half of August stalled, though ice in the Beaufort Sea is finally starting to weaken. The Northern Sea Route appears*closed off in 2021, despite being open each summer since 2008.

Scroll down to "Conditions in Context" in your link for the reason why.

Meanwhile, it rained for the first time in recorded history at the highest point on Greenland's Ice Sheet:

On August 14, 2021, rain was observed at the highest point on the Greenland Ice Sheet for several hours, and air temperatures remained above freezing for about nine hours. This was the third time in less than a decade, and the latest date in the year on record, that the National Science Foundation’s Summit Station had above-freezing temperatures and wet snow.*There is no previous report of rainfall at this location (72.58°N 38.46°W), which reaches 3,216 meters (10,551 feet) in elevation.

Greenland Ice Sheet Today | Surface Melt Data presented by NSIDC

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Well today just got interesting. The planet seems to be cooling .
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom
Notice the anomaly wrt the 1979 to 2000 period that they use.

Originally Posted by climatereanalyzer

... The daily temperature anomaly values shown on these maps reflect current weather patterns, and therefore global and regional means can vary significantly from day-to-day and week-to-week. Climate trends should only be inferred from long-term datasets, such as those available on the Monthly Reanalysis Timeseries page [1]. Please also refer to NOAA's Climate at a Glance [2] for verified data on monthly, seasonal, and annual temperature change since 1880...

[1] Monthly Reanalysis Timeseries
➥ https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanal...nthly_tseries/

[2] Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series
➥ https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series

Most importantly, in Thunder Bay, today is cooler [so far], than yesterday; proving newhaul's thesis.

But, that's not how climate trends are evaluated, is it?

Until the end of 2020, the most current and widely used standard reference period, for calculating "climate normals" was the 30-year period 1981-2010.
Recently, the Climate Bulletin changed from the [30 year] 1981-2010, to the 1991-2020 reference period.
Importantly, the change of reference period does not affect the long-term changes, relative to pre-industrial values.
The 1991-2020 reference period is warmer than 1981-2010, for most months, and regions.
I’d expect the next reference period [2001 - 2031] to be even warmer still, and likely at an accelerating rate.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by GordMay

[1] Monthly Reanalysis Timeseries
➥ https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanal...nthly_tseries/

[2] Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series
➥ https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series


Most importantly, in Thunder Bay, today is cooler [so far], than yesterday; proving newhaul's theseis.

And do you remember that thesis I posted 3 years ago?
It is coming to pass and happen . Never said it would happen in a day but over several years .

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Pretty self explanatory just read the numbers . It is at 0.0°C anomaly wrt the 1979 to 2000 baseline .

If it was self explanatory I wouldn't have asked. It looks like weather, as Gord just mentioned.

[jimbunyard]

And I can confirm the 'trend'.

Came inside yesterday afternoon when it reached 98 at my house, this morning was 78 when I went outside...

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by GordMay

[1] Monthly Reanalysis Timeseries
➥ https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanal...nthly_tseries/

[2] Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series
➥ https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series

Most importantly, in Thunder Bay, today is cooler [so far], than yesterday; proving newhaul's thesis.

I just posted today's anomaly is at baseline .
Let's see what it says tomorrow. Last week it was at +0.2°C
The week before that +0.2 .
It is just an observation. That is how thesis are proven over time . Observation of conditions.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by newhaul

...
It is just an observation. That is how thesis are proven over time . Observation of conditions.

Indeed.
A period of time, lasting about ten years, not days.
Your desperation is showing.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Indeed.
A period of time, lasting about ten years, not days.
Your desperation is showing.

Really I just posted the days readings and everyone goes on the attack .
I really wonder why I continue to attempt to educate people .

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Really I just posted the days readings and everyone goes on the attack .
I really wonder why I continue to attempt to educate people .

I think that in order to educate people, you need to understand it yourself.

In most cases, it seems you've just cut and pasted something from a skeptic/denier site, and that you yourself don't actually understand it. It's not that i think you're not capable of understanding; it just seems like you trust the site you copied from.

[Reefmagnet]

How quaint. It's weather not climate if it gets cooler. Remind me again why "hottest July, like in, forever" was the talk of Alarmist Town recently?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

How quaint. It's weather not climate if it gets cooler. Remind me again why "hottest July, like in, forever" was the talk of Alarmist Town recently?

It was interesting, for being a world record, like fastest 'transat', or biggest meatball; not as scientific 'proof' of anything.
newhaul's was offered as an indicator of climactic cooling, a falsehood.

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by GordMay

It was interesting, for being a world record, like fastest 'transat', or biggest meatball; not as scientific 'proof' of anything.
newhaul's was offered as an indicator of climactic cooling, a falsehood.

M'kay.


It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

July 2021 has earned the unenviable distinction as the world’s hottest month ever recorded, according to new global data released today by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
“In this case, first place is the worst place to be,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “July is typically the world’s warmest month of the year, but July 2021 outdid itself as the hottest July and month ever recorded. This new record adds to the disturbing and disruptive path that climate change has set for the globe.”

[GordMay]

NOAA said it is consistent with a [30 year +] trend ["disturbing and disruptive path"], which is true.

newhaul said: "The planet seems to be cooling", which is certainly premature, [and likely untrue].

State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for July 2021 ~ NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information

Based on current anomalies and historical global annual temperature readings, it appears that it is virtually certain that 2021 will be a top 10 year, consistent with a strong propensity since 1988 for recent years to be initially ranked as a top 10 year (Sánchez-Lugo et al., 2018). Our calculations suggest:

< 1% chance of warmest year
< 4% chance of a top 5 year
>99% chance of a top 10 year
95% confidence interval of fifth to seventh warmest year on record

Here ➥ https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/globa...emental/page-2

And ➥ https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/met...aa.ncdc:C00672

[GordMay]

Natural infection versus vaccination: Differences in COVID antibody responses

Hope for a future without fear of COVID-19 comes down to circulating antibodies and memory B cells. Unlike circulating antibodies, which peak soon after vaccination or infection only to fade a few months later, memory B cells can stick around to prevent severe disease for decades. And they evolve over time, learning to produce successively more potent “memory antibodies”, that are better at neutralizing the virus, and more capable of adapting to variants.

Vaccination produces greater amounts of circulating antibodies than natural infection.

But a new Pre-Print study [1] suggests that not all memory B cells are created equal.

While vaccination gives rise to memory B cells that evolve over a few weeks, natural infection births memory B cells that continue to evolve over several months, producing highly potent antibodies adept at eliminating even viral variants.

The findings [1] highlight an advantage bestowed by natural infection, rather than vaccination, but the authors caution that the benefits of stronger memory B cells do not outweigh the risk of disability and death from COVID-19.

While a natural infection may induce maturation of antibodies with broader activity than a vaccine does, a natural infection can also kill you.

A vaccine won’t do that, and, in fact, protects against the risk of serious illness, or death from infection.

Vaccination and natural infection elicited similar number of memory B cells. Memory B cells rapidly evolved between the first and second dose of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, producing increasingly potent memory antibodies. But after two months, progress stalled. The memory B cells were present in large numbers and expressed potent antibodies, but were not getting any stronger. Although some of these antibodies that can neutralize delta and other variants there was no overall improvement in breadth.

With convalescent patients, on the other hand, memory B cells continued to evolve and improve up to one year after infection. More potent and more broadly neutralizing memory antibodies were coming out with every memory B cell update.

We can expect memory B cells to undergo limited volleys of evolution in response to mRNA vaccines, a finding that may have significant implications for the design and rollout of booster shots. A booster with the currently available mRNA vaccine would be expected to engage memory cells to produce circulating antibodies that are strongly protective against the original virus and somewhat less so against the variants.

When to administer the booster depends on the object of boosting.
If the goal is to prevent infection, then boosting will need to be done after 6 to 18 months, depending on the immune status of the individual.
If the goal is to prevent serious disease, boosting may not be necessary for years.

Pre-Print study, which has not been formally peer-reviewed:
[1] “Antibody Evolution after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccination” ~ by Alice Cho et al
Summary ➥ https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...07.29.454333v1
Full Text ➥ https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1....454333v1.full

See also:
“Evolution of antibody immunity to SARS-CoV-2" ~ by Christian Gaebler et al
These findings provide the strongest evidence yet that the immune system “remembers” the virus and, remarkably, continues to improve the quality of antibodies, even after the infection has waned. Antibodies produced months after the infection showed increased ability to block SARS-CoV-2, as well as its mutated versions, such as the South African variant.
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w

“Distinct antibody and memory B cell responses in SARS-CoV-2 naïve and recovered individuals after mRNA vaccination” ~ by Rishi R. Goe et al
These findings suggest only a single vaccine dose may be needed to produce a sufficient antibody response, in those who have recovered from COVID-19. The team also found that those who did not have COVID-19 [called COVID naïve] did not have a full immune response, until after receiving their second vaccine dose
➥ https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/6/58/eabi6950

[Hydro]

NZ safety changes, may apply to more areas sooner or later.

"A Maritime New Zealand investigation into the sinking of a yacht off the coast of New Zealand’s North Island in October 2019 has found that if storm covers had been fitted to cabin windows, they could have prevented the loss of the vessel and the skipper’s life."

https://www.maritimenz.govt.nz/comme...22July2021.pdf

https://www.yachtingnz.org.nz/resour...fety-regs-2021