Electric Car Economics

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

The Harley is the perfect example of brand power and marketing and proves just how strong social pressures are on what people want to buy.


People don’t want to buy what they want, they want to buy what they've been told makes them look successful and other people envious.

a small modification made, but yeah, that's basically what goes on.


But it's also true that you can sometimes persuade people to do things for less selfish reasons, too.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

But it's also true that you can sometimes persuade people to do things for less selfish reasons, too.

Rarely and it doesn’t last. People want desperately to be seen as popular or successful etc.
In the 90’s Hollywood was all about Hummers, then 2007 or so they were all about saving the world and all had Prius’s etc. now I guess it’s pickups? But I don’t know.

People that may live in a little old house want to force a Lexus and pretend they are affluent or something, and the bigger and more expensive the vehicle the better.

This commercial is running non stop, look at the house etc and the vehicles, it’s all about being affluent or looking so, and that means big inefficient fuel hogs.
https://youtu.be/Bvrem8e9LHI

[a64pilot]

Reinstate CAFE standards for light trucks and SUV’s and don’t use magic numbers to calculate the fuel mileage etc and you’ll see people fall out of love with them again.
Whoever and I don’t pretend to know who put the CAFE standards into place if they hadn’t been rewritten and have exemptions, etc it would have worked, in fact it did work.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Rarely and it doesn’t last. People want desperately to be seen as popular or successful etc....

This commercial is running non stop, look at the house etc and the vehicles, it’s all about being affluent or looking so, and that means big inefficient fuel hogs.

You're building a pretty solid case for government coercion/intervention to change unsustainable and planet-unfriendly behaviour. Just sayin'

[Buzzman]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

This is called "cherry picking" data.

If we want to talk about durability/life span of EVs we need to talk about average users and compare them to average ICE users. Comparing average use ICE to cherry picked EV doesn't tell us much of anything.

Sorry, val, but in this specific case, untrue.

The term "cherry picking" is *very specifically* used to describe selecting a favourable data set from a wider range of available data. Even more specifically, selecting a small sub-set of the overall data that tends to prove or support your political position or argument.

In the case of EVs (as yet) there really are no "comparable data sets".

The only high mileage datasets are small and don't (yet) show vehicles with this type of usage.

I actually googled 'tesla taxis' and found there is an article on a New York co adding Teslas to its fleet, so there will soon be another "fleet" that will have some high-mileage data.

BUT, as yet, I can't find any comparable "ordinary suburban soccer mom EV high mileage data set".

So while I agree in principle - the data is not comparable - it's not "cherry picking" until other datasets (of soccer moms in EVs) are available and commentators then selectively choose the (potentially) better-looking taxi or fleet data sets over the soccer mom datasets.

Frankly, if I was a fleet owner and looking at those figures, I'd be switching to EVs like a shot.

I did find a New York municipal fleet data set that was a 'selection' of their overall data, which did show that over the lifetime of their typical usage, a Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt was significantly cheaper to own and operate than their more usual Ford Focus ICE vehicles.

The data is 'selective' because the EVs are not yet at 'end of life', so really shouldn't be compared with EVs until what that 'end of life scenario' looks like is clearer.

IOW, if the Teepot (or whatever its called) fleet of Teslas are indicative, the New York fleet may still be using its Leafs and Bolts long after they've had to pension off the ICE Fords.

So while the 'real life' jury is still on the fence, the early indicators for lower cost of EVs over whole of life are pretty good.

Note the choice of term: indicators. Not "true facts".

So: read it this way - as a "scientific inquiry" - the *theory* (to be proven or disproven) is that EVs *will* be less costly and have lower emissions over whole of life than similar cost, similar usage ICEs.

While not enough data has yet been gathered and analysed, what data HAS been accumulated thus far indicates the theory is more likely to be proven than disproven.

But time will tell....

[a64pilot]

Even the high mileage Tesla fleet that was all highway, had I think disturbing stats, Not sure how many cars there are, but they have gone though eight batteries, assumption there is a calendar time on warranty only, no mileage.
But what does a Tesla pack cost? I have no idea.

But life span is sort of irrelevant, 99% of the type of people that buy new, don’t keep a vehicle for any long term, I’m the 1% that does, or used to, I have bought my last new car.
But if even decently well cared for, and I mean just oil and fluids changed a vehicle’s body and very often the electrical system / electronics along with worn paint and rattles etc is why you get a new car.

My Wife’s father had a Honda something, maybe an accord but it had over 400,000 miles on it and the electrics were giving trouble and she demanded a new SUV so they got rid of the Honda.
I told them they were fools not to get another of those Honda’s, just a low mileage used one. They won’t live to put another 400,000 miles on a car.
Just like when I buy a house, I won’t need a 30 yr. roof, I realized that the other day, and it bothered me.

[Buzzman]

Yeah, I hear ya!

I'm relatively younger, but still, a 30 yr span might see me into an old folks home (i.e. care factor zero).

I recently replaced my 300,000km 1996 Toyota Corolla - with a near identical 1995 Corolla. Both AE102 1.8L 4-cyl, auto sedans (I like the boot/trunk).

I'd still have the first one if I hadn't fallen asleep and wrapped it around a tree...

Cops investigated. Single vehicle accident. Told them I was distracted by a roach crawling out from behind the sun visor whilst traversing a slow corner (true) - and simply "forgot" to straighten the wheels, so kept going in a continuous curve - straight into a 4' diam eucalypt.

Those puppies don't move even when hit by a semi trailer truck!

At first, I thought I was having a heart attack - massive chest pain - but then I noticed the windscreen was shattered, and slowly worked out I'd had an accident.

Had a purple GT-stripe diagonally across my chest for several weeks after.

Had trouble with the stick shift on my back-up (classic '81 Celica) so had to replace with the 'new' Corolla quickly.

Sure it uses 7L/100km (33mpg) but as I only do 10K km/annum (6000m/annum), I figure its CO2 emissions ain't gonna be worth a hill a beans, and it's 'lifecycle' emissions were long ago mitigated by my not purchasing several new vehicles over the previous 10 years. (My sister-in-law gets a new car every other year, she does high miles).

Really, it cost me AUS$1400 with only 150k km on it, so I reckon it's good for at least another 10 years, by which time early Leafs might be up for sale on the 2nd hand market...

I like how being a cheapskate makes me look all green, warm and fuzzy....

Saving the planet, $0.01c at a time....

[a64pilot]

In the US, there is no shortage of Leaf’s and they don’t sell for much either, you ought to be able to get a deal.
If I were living in a house where I could charge one, I’d have one, maybe as a second car

[Buzzman]

LOL, I wish. We've barely had them here in Oz and they are EXXY...!!

Only 39 on the market in the whole country, and cheapest around AUS$20,000.

Compared to the Corolla at $1400, it's a no-brainer. The difference in cost buys me around about 18 years-worth of fuel at my usual/current consumption rate.

So even if I have to buy another Corolla in 10 years, financially I'll still be way in front.

And no guarantees on greater-than-10-yr-old batteries in 10-yr-old Leaf (OK, so they aren't yet 10 years old - the oldest here is 2012, but on my normal cycle of a new car every five years, that 2012 Leaf will be 12-yrs-old at the time I'm thinking about replacing my current vehicle, and so past the use-by on the battery. 17 years if I stretch the current vehicle to the age of the previous one that I'd owned for 10 years).

Hopefully before then I can afford the lithium house battery and larger PV array so I can power an EV (of any kind - even a Prius with 50km range would do me for 90% of my trips, which are less than 50km). And there's a lot more of them around, that are also a lot cheaper. But again, no guarantees on battery life.

Just doesn't make economic sense for me unless I can produce the fuel/energy for 'free'. At present my 700L/annum only costs around AUS$1050.

So a ten year car life for me is:
1 x Corolla = $1500
10 x $1050 = $10,500
...or say $12K over 10 years.

So if I could deduct the fuel cost, then a $5K Prius might make sense. Or if gas prices went thru the roof...but it's not like I'm getting 12-15mpg from an SUV or truck!

Frankly, the small amount of mileage I do each year (compared to commuters) makes me a low emitter already, and if I can get the oversize PV array and battery, that will further reduce my GHG footprint.

Some of the next 10 years I plan to be sailing full-time anyway, so, I'm not too worried about my car's 'footprint'.

But people who buy a new car every two years, just to "keep up with the neighbours" really do **** me....

It's a flaw in my character....

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Buzzman

Sorry, val, but in this specific case, untrue.

The term "cherry picking" is *very specifically* used to describe selecting a favourable data set from a wider range of available data. Even more specifically, selecting a small sub-set of the overall data that tends to prove or support your political position or argument.

In the case of EVs (as yet) there really are no "comparable data sets".
...

Having a smaller general data set for EVs in no way precludes cherry picking data.

The vast majority of teslas are not used in a shuttle scenario putting up massive numbers of miles, so it is selecting a favorable data set from a wider range of available data.

[GordMay]

The efficacy of electric drive systems (motors & control) has been robustly proven over a century-plus of industrial/commercial use.
Not so EV battery systems.
Elon Musk stated that the Tesla Model 3 drive unit and body was designed to last one million miles. The battery, however, has a minimum lifespan of 1,500 charge cycles which should translate to 300,000+ miles (standard range/standard range plus) to 500,000 miles (long-range variants).
Tesla's warranty covers Model 3 battery packs ‘8 years or 120,000 miles’ for long-range variants, and ‘8 years or 100,000 miles’ for standard and standard range plus variants, so Tesla’s 100,000 – 120,000 mile warranty is sufficient to cover only about 6-8 years for most typical drivers.
Tesla 3 battery module replacement cost between $5000-$7000 (similar to Nissan Leaf)
☞ https://interestingengineering.com/t...ound-5000-7000

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Tesla 3 battery module replacement cost between $5000-$7000 (similar to Nissan Leaf)
☞ https://interestingengineering.com/t...ound-5000-7000

And yet you peruse the used market and they go for $10,000. Scroll down and you’ll see one pack going for $16,000 dollars, maybe that’s the long range one?
Maybe the $7,000 battery pack is kept where that $30,000 car is.
https://suncoastcyclesports.com/2018...gaAn7UEALw_wcB
But based on the Prius battery packs as an example, the normal attrition rate of automobiles being totaled (the pack is extremely well protected, I assume Tesla’s’ are too) but anyway after a time all the people who want to buy them to build their own projects have and they begin to build up in junk yards because there just isn’t any real use for them, and they go cheap. Supply and demand. But as a Tesla pack is just a metric load of 18650 cells maybe they will be broken up and sold, lots of uses for 18650 cells.
There are so many Prius out there there are business in major cities that come to you and swap out your pack for a “rebuilt” one and give you a warranty for about a grand, length or warranty is based on how much you pay, the pack is the same. Standard is one year.
I’d expect as the electrics age, depending on how hard it is to get the pack out that will happen for electrics too.
Our Prius pack is ten yrs old and 250,000 miles and I expect it to die any day now, but also remember a Hybrid pack goes through many, many more cycles than a pure electric car, it’s not at all unusual in city traffic for it to cycle every 15 min or so as you sit at every red light engine off AC running and the engine stops the moment you lift your foot off of the gas.

What is killing the Tesla batteries is Supercharging them, yes you can ram quite a bit of charge into them in a very short time, but they are just Panasonic 18650 cells. And doing that makes them hot, and heat kills Li-po batteries.
If you read the article on the Tesla’s that are in fleet use and went though eight batteries, that’s what the Tesla rep told them, and it makes sense. Tesloop is it seems only getting 200,000 out of a battery pack, and I’m sure that’s due to them Supercharging and not slowly charging overnight.
I believe a smart owner will avoid those Superchargers and only use them if they have to.

[FAST FRED]

"Nuclear reactors produce so little waste (by comparison) that it can realistically be stored... if people are prepared to think of centuries instead of a handful of fiscal quarters. I fully expect that today's nuclear waste will be used or destroyed in future reactors."

With advances in aviation we are nearing the era of aircraft that can take off and fly at Mach 5 or 6 to the space station and continue on to its destination.

Just as modern space launch costs are coming down by a factor of 100 as private industry replaces NASA , we are only a couple of generations (30-50 years ) from launch costs that will be quite minor.

So the big hassle of storing nuclear waste will be gone if we simply toss it into the sun.

The hassle is should we make the mistake of another vast gov program to "solve" the waste problem we will be frozen in time as the burorats fight to continue to exist , instead of solve a problem.

Think WWI wool board as an example.

[Lake-Effect]

One more advancement on the road to better EVs.

Other than the current cost of batteries, it's mainly scale that makes ICE cars less expensive than EVs. Once the electric motors and control systems are produced in the same volume as ICEs, there will be a price drop.

Batteries and charging remain the biggest hurdle.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by FAST FRED

The hassle is should we make the mistake of another vast gov program to "solve" the waste problem we will be frozen in time as the [bureaucrats] fight to continue to exist , instead of solve a problem.

Nuclear power is simply too big to leave to the private sector alone. Permits, location, safety, and that several thousand year commitment to waste storage.