Climate Change

[delmarrey]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

1st post and its a subject like this?


Troll.

Nah! He's a 7-11 man.

The weather changes so often, how can anyone predict what's really happening.

[K_V_B]

Originally Posted by cdreid

T[*]The effects: Every continent will lose valuable land mass. Manhatten may need a dike within 100 years lest 25% of it disappear.

As long as they ask the Dutch to build the dikes: No problem.

One of the things that struck me reading the IPCC reports (and yes, I have looked at the real reports, not the "summary for policymakers", which is a political document, not a scientific one) is that even in the "Business as Usual" scenario the world of 2100 is expected to be a better place to live in than the world of 2000.

In the end it is all a cost-benefit exercise. Climate change will have costs, as well as benefits, and trying to mitigate or adapt has costs as well as benefits too. What muddles the debate a lot is that depending on your agenda some costs might be benefits and vice versa.
For example, for the more extreme greens having to accept a lower standard of living is considered a benefit, not a cost...

Personally I often like to ask people if they would change their attitude towards global climate change if it was found out not to be man made, but natural. I think we should just treat it as something that is happening, that we can't really do anything about, that will affect our lives both in positive and negative ways. And since it's happening slowly we have plenty of time to adapt.

[K_V_B]

Originally Posted by RedHerring

I guess, these guys were looking for a nice boat, and nobody told them that it was impossible to do this in a Bavaria

People saying that something is impossible shouldn't get in the way of those who are doing it...

[goboatingnow]

I think part of the issue is of course, the science behind attempts to map climate change and more importantly attempt to predict its future , is very complex , and not readily understandable to ordinary people. Hence it gets either sensationalised or dumbed down , neither of which actually helps and gives succour to those who argue against from a similar platform of dumbed down information.

I am fortunate to have some science friends working in this area in different parts of the globe. They all to a man and women agree that climate change is occurring and that it is more rapid and extreme because of man made effects. ( rapid and extreme are relative terms ).

What they don't agree on is the long term effects. The models , while incredibly complex, simply give too many variable solutions to draw hard conclusions.

To use comparisons to Al gore , who is in effect a media person or to try and disparage science by the " follow the money " is to demean such scientific efforts. Many climate change studies are paper , theoretical, compute based solutions , that don't require major funding efforts. Equally there is funding coming from both idealogical sides of the house.

I'm of the view that humans will react far faster then the climate, we are extremely capable as a species and have adapted to live in considerable extremes.

I think in general

( a) we should continue to try and reduce man made greenhouse gas emissions, wherever possible , this is an imperfect process , but everything helps. Cleaner cars , industry , etc are better for us anyway , irrespective of the climate change issues.

(B) rising sea levels may cause territorial change and resettlement , but this is a slow process and mankind can easily adapt. Technology, flood defences , better planning all help.

(C) temperature rise, may occur in some areas , but the science predicts other areas may be cooler , so all that may happen is some agriculture changes

All in all , I think we should continue improving our efforts at reducing man made pollution of all types.however imperfect and fragmented that process is

Dave

[sailorboy1]

I remember not too long ago when the 'science" said all the pollution was going to cause a new ice age.

But the best thing I like about the man made global warming theory are the people using electrical devices to talk about it.

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by toddedger

Newer satellites will soon prove that the changing output of the sun drives climate change. I'm not sure if the guys making their living studying it will let the info out to the public though. Someone might hack their email and spill it, but the question is will anybody pay attention to the science.

Nonsense. It's an 11-year cycle. The sun's output, within those parameters, has been stable -- and it's been accurately measured since the 70s without the new crop of fancy space-bound instruments.

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by Don L

I remember not too long ago when the 'science" said all the pollution was going to cause a new ice age.

But the best thing I like about the man made global warming theory are the people using electrical devices to talk about it.

That's a myth. There was never a scientific consensus about "global cooling" -- there was some speculation in the 1970s, but it never gained much traction, except a bit of exaggerated interest in the popular press:

Short Sharp Science: Who sparked the global cooling myth?

[RaymondR]

I have never had a problem with the water being to deep but sure as hell have run aground often enough. We could use 2 -3 more of water in many of the anchorages, bring it on.

[MarkJ]

List of things we were told we would die from / the earth would end / etc

Predicted disasters of the world that never happened:

1950's pea soup fog in UK solved in the 1960s by cleaner burning coal

1960's Nuclear war,
Communist domino effect.
Acid Rain Forests in Germany (Dunno what happened to the Black Forest)

1970's
1970's oil crisis/World oild running out
Famine/ Not able to feed the world (solved by genetic engeneering and better practices and natural slowdown of population growth)
Overpopulation (naturally slowed)
Air Polution by cars (Solved by lead free fuel)
Ozone Layer
　
1980's
AIDS
China/Africa would have to attack other areas for living space
Nuclear power (not major problems, but that small ones have effectivly stopped N power)
Spannish Flu or Bird Flu
Ice Age
　

1990's

Skin Cancer epidemic
Ozone Layer depletion (CFC's stopped but it was a nautral efect anyway)
Geneticaly Modified Foods, Monsanto
Premeliniumists!!!!!!!!!!

2000's
Y2K (Nothing happened or it was fixed)
Global Warming
Myan 2012
　

[Group9]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

1st post and its a subject like this?


Troll.

Betting he has some financial interest, i.e. selling carbon credits in the concept.

As has already been posted, follow the money first.

[capngeo]

Here's my take:

• The Earth is 3 billion-odd years old
• It has been colder
• it has been hotter
• It got hotter and colder long before "man" came on the scene
• It will get hotter/colder, long after man has gone extinct

GET OVER IT!

[jtsailjt]

Originally Posted by SailOar

Climate Change is a topic that affects boaters, at least indirectly. There have been at least a few other threads on this topic on CF, but they have been closed -- not due to lack of interest, but because posters were getting snarky with each other.

I'd request that this thread be used to discuss the science of Climate Change, the consequences of Climate Change, as well as possible ways to adapt or mitigate its effects.

While questions are welcomed, in the interest of forum harmony it would be very nice if un-referenced dogmatic opinions be kept on your side of the keyboard.

Here in Maine, IF there is long term warming going on, I guess we sailors can hope for a longer sailing season so that would be nice. I'm confident that we will be able adapt to that quite easily and someday we may even be able to go for a swim.

Why is it that so many people who claim to be interested in the "science" of climate change seem to want to begin with the assumption that change will be bad, or something that needs to be "mitigated" or "adapted to?" For every location where folks would prefer the weather to be a little cooler, there's another location where it would be nice if the weather were a little warmer or wetter or dryer or windier or calmer. As a sailor in Maine, I'm in favor of warming climate trends, and if there's a downside to a longer, warmer sailing season, would love to have someone point it out, but am a bit skeptical that it's something I can count on to continue for the long term.

[sneuman]

This is simple, on one side there is heresay, conspiracy theory and politically driven babble. On the other side is a near-consensus among folks who've actually looked at the data.

Whether you care to be concerned about the "problem" (or to believe it is a problem at all) is entirely up to you. But the fact that the climate is changing is NOT in dispute.

[The Garbone]

Originally Posted by capngeo

Here's my take:

• The Earth is 3 billion-odd years old
• It has been colder
• it has been hotter
• It got hotter and colder long before "man" came on the scene
• It will get hotter/colder, long after man has gone extinct

GET OVER IT!

+1

Pollution and overharvesting are issues, climate change, not so much.

IMO, some people are making a good living bitching about the weather.

[David_Old_Jersey]

I wish I had invented Man Made Climate Change Warming Doomsday..........

Just feeding off the same human fears that religions were created to exploit - but in a post religious world (apart from the vocal retards) to gain traction gotta have some "science" stuck on the EOTW scare story and no god(s).

Having said all that, the fact that it ain't true (apart from the Climate is always changing) does not really matter as can still do good for society (just like with Religions), but the odds are it will continue to primarily be a way of explaining to the Peasants why there is not enough to go around.......and to suck up their lot for the greater good. Just like religions.

Do I know Science? Not really! - but I know people, and can smell BS from a million miles away...........


Overpopulation (self curing from development) and not pooping on own doorstep (self curing from becoming civilised) are separate matters.