The Market Has Turned

[Capt Phil]

Boewolfborealis and speakeasy have it right IMHO. We have only begun to see the recessionary impact on housing/boat prices. The govt cannot print $ fast enough to support the current price levels of these commodities. We are headed for a long and sustained retraction of prices in homes and in boats. My guess is regardless of federal fiscal tricks, folks are going to hang on to their nest eggs and will try and insulate themselves from a probable meltdown. Banks are not going to ease their lending practices, quite the contrary, they will be tightening through $ volume restrictions and increased lending rates. Just basic economics, folks... sit down, strap in and get ready for the rollercoaster ride! It ain't going to be pretty but there will be great opportunities for bargains IF you have the cash. Not one to give financial advice as this is not the right forum but selling your muni bonds and buying a boat might not be a bad bet at the moment! This advice is worth exactly what you paid for it! I understand if our moderator kicks this observation into the bin... cheers, Capt Phil

[savoir]

This thread has been active for quite a while now and I don't reckon we have yet seen any confirmation of prices bottoming out.

I have a watch list of several classes of boat on Yachtworld coming to around 100 boats in total. Through this year only 4 have sold, one has come down in price by 70k and another by 80k.

[Doodles]

Originally Posted by Capt Phil

Boewolfborealis and speakeasy have it right IMHO. We have only begun to see the recessionary impact on housing/boat prices. The govt cannot print $ fast enough to support the current price levels of these commodities. We are headed for a long and sustained retraction of prices in homes and in boats. My guess is regardless of federal fiscal tricks, folks are going to hang on to their nest eggs and will try and insulate themselves from a probable meltdown. Banks are not going to ease their lending practices, quite the contrary, they will be tightening through $ volume restrictions and increased lending rates. Just basic economics, folks... sit down, strap in and get ready for the rollercoaster ride! It ain't going to be pretty but there will be great opportunities for bargains IF you have the cash. Not one to give financial advice as this is not the right forum but selling your muni bonds and buying a boat might not be a bad bet at the moment! This advice is worth exactly what you paid for it! I understand if our moderator kicks this observation into the bin... cheers, Capt Phil

I agree completely. Just look at this good news from last week:

Home sales dive, prices near 9-year low - Business - Real estate - msnbc.com

Cash will be king for some time I think. And this year's bargin boat purchase will be next year's ...???

[Therapy]

Originally Posted by Doodles

Cash will be king for some time I think. And this year's bargin boat purchase will be next year's ...???

With the printing of all those dollars won't cash become worth less and less? Each single one I mean.

[savoir]

Only if your dollars are of the greenback variety.

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by Therapy

With the printing of all those dollars won't cash become worth less and less? Each single one I mean.

Will also have to factor in that the cost of living in Furrin Countries will also increase as there Standard of living also improves, as well as factor in there home grown inflation..........and those costs get imported into Countries that can no longer look after themselves (whilst they can still issue IOU's).........and that applies even if a Furrin country is still somewhere one would not choose to live - economically or politically............all gets rolled into the exchange rate, which over time impacts on a currency's purchasing power at home - even for those who can't find "Furrin" on a map

The US will be a major world economic force for a longgggg time yet (long enough for me to not worry about it ) but the days of it being the dominant economic force are drawing to a close, and that is something that has to be managed by the US itself carefully. The denial approach of the British Empire didn't turn out well - but at least the UK had the option of becoming a Vassel state (under the US).

[Doodles]

Originally Posted by Therapy

With the printing of all those dollars won't cash become worth less and less? Each single one I mean.

That's a whole different issue. What I'm referring to is the tight credit markets and the growing inventory of boats, houses, ... you pick the commodity. If you have ready cash and are prepared to spend it then you're going to be in the drivers seat. Just an opinion of course.

[Therapy]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

Will also have to factor in that the cost of living in Furrin Countries will also increase as there Standard of living also improves, as well as factor in there home grown inflation..........and those costs get imported into Countries that can no longer look after themselves (whilst they can still issue IOU's).........and that applies even if a Furrin country is still somewhere one would not choose to live - economically or politically............all gets rolled into the exchange rate, which over time impacts on a currency's purchasing power at home - even for those who can't find "Furrin" on a map

The US will be a major world economic force for a longgggg time yet (long enough for me to not worry about it ) but the days of it being the dominant economic force are drawing to a close, and that is something that has to be managed by the US itself carefully. The denial approach of the British Empire didn't turn out well - but at least the UK had the option of becoming a Vassel state (under the US).

Right!

We have the same Vassel option.

I told my kids in high school what language to learn. They did not listen and know no Chinese!

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by Therapy

I told my kids in high school what language to learn. They did not listen and know no Chinese!

Apparently, 1 in 5 people in the world are Chinese. And there are 5 people in my family, so it must be one of them.

It's either my mum or my dad. Or my older brother Colin. Or my younger brother Ho-Cha-Chu.

But I think it's Colin.

[70AMX]

Originally Posted by Doodles

That's a whole different issue. What I'm referring to is the tight credit markets and the growing inventory of boats, houses, ... you pick the commodity. If you have ready cash and are prepared to spend it then you're going to be in the drivers seat. Just an opinion of course.

Deflation in assets.... boats,collector cars, antiques, houses, cabins ect...
Inflation in necessities... Food, taxes, electricity, tickets, gasoline, beer....oh the humanity.
They all add up to a really poor situation for the middle class going forward.
I am currently looking for a inexpensive older cat, but I will be taking as long as possible before buying as many owners are needing to sell their toys to pay the mortgage and I think that prices will keep dropping until they find the new market value.....just like houses....you can ask what you like.....but if you need to sell....you will keep dropping the price until you do.

[bathharbor]

Brokers have a vested interest to pad numbers and keep prices up , and include things that should not be part of the sale value. Owners usually have an unrealistic high value due to the vast sums put in their love one Bottom line is the boat is worth only what a buyer is willing to spend. You see this when the same boat is on the market two years later. I have seen people turn down an offer and then a year later sell for 60k less .

[Kettlewell]

Bottom line is the boat is worth only what a buyer is willing to spend. You see this when the same boat is on the market two years later. I have seen people turn down an offer and then a year later sell for 60k less

+1. I looked at a boat once, back in the days when the market was booming, and it was way out of my price range, but I loved it. Kept my eye on the boat and the mind of the owner changed after it didn't move for more than a year. Ended up getting it for half of what he was originally asking.

[snort]

Apparently, 1 in 5 people in the world are Chinese. And there are 5 people in my family, so it must be one of them.

It's either my mum or my dad. Or my older brother Colin. Or my younger brother Ho-Cha-Chu.

But I think it's Colin.

[Doodles]

Originally Posted by 70AMX

Deflation in assets.... boats,collector cars, antiques, houses, cabins ect...
Inflation in necessities... Food, taxes, electricity, tickets, gasoline, beer....oh the humanity.
They all add up to a really poor situation for the middle class going forward.
I am currently looking for a inexpensive older cat, but I will be taking as long as possible before buying as many owners are needing to sell their toys to pay the mortgage and I think that prices will keep dropping until they find the new market value.....just like houses....you can ask what you like.....but if you need to sell....you will keep dropping the price until you do.

Don't forget the deflation in the job market. Less jobs to go around and less pay for the job. I really see the job market as the key and I just don't see it coming back like it was ... just where are the jobs going to come from?? And that's the secret to your middle class.

[70AMX]

Originally Posted by Doodles

Don't forget the deflation in the job market. Less jobs to go around and less pay for the job. I really see the job market as the key and I just don't see it coming back like it was ... just where are the jobs going to come from?? And that's the secret to your middle class.

I see that you get it.....many people don't yet....


The only jobs available pay less and less and expenses go up and up.
Many of the middle class have boats and mortgages...Husband or wife loses job or hours are cut.......Bingo.... something has to go....House OR Boat.