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-   -   The Market Has Turned (https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/f128/the-market-has-turned-51172.html)

sandy daugherty 08-12-2010 10:13

The Market Has Turned
 
see:Big-boat sales push brokerage valuations higher

If you've been waiting for the market to bottom out, it has happened. If the type of boat you have been looking for never reached your price, you will have to revise your plans. Just don't let the dream die.

bazzer 08-12-2010 10:50

Well maybe for powerboats, but not for sailboats, down 31% from November last year!

simonmd 08-12-2010 11:19

Oh I do hope so,

now,

57ft flybridge in Southern Spain anyone? ;)

rourkeh 08-12-2010 11:21

First off I believe very little of what I read when it comes to statistics or numerical valuations regarding improvements to the economy or industries in specific as the facts do not support the data nearly every time. The sales numbers may be up regarding brokerage boats, but I would attribute that to the fact that there are a lot of buyers out there bottom feeding. It is bound to generate an increase in sales when people are giving things away. Talking with people I used to work with in the sales and brokerage business recently, they are seeing no real improvement in sales numbers and if anything things are getting worse. There is a consensus in the industry that they will see no real improvement for at least another 18 months , but they are not stupid they are talking it up that now is the time to buy, things are great, the bottom is over. If they preach stories of doom and gloom nobody will buy anything. The reality is just look at the inventory out there and what the pricing is. So long as there is this much inventory, and you can go out today and buy a boat at a 40% discount off of 2006 pricing the bottom is far from over.

hellosailor 08-12-2010 11:44

"The market increase was most pronounced for boats over 55 feet. Unit sales increased...to 77 boats, from 48 in November last year,...

November unit sales were 2 percent higher, with 1,938 boats changing hands. "

That would seem to say the increase and the market rebound that you are talking about, Sandy, is for the high end market (boats over 55 feet OAL) and that only 77 boats were sold in that market in an entire year.

With less than two thousand sailboats selling on YW overall in the past year.

I would think that MOST of the members of this forum are interested in the "significantly under 55' OAL" market.

witzgall 08-12-2010 11:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by hellosailor (Post 574068)
"

With less than two thousand sailboats selling on YW overall in the past year.

.

I am having a really hard time believing that fact. Anyone else? only 2k boats?

F51 08-12-2010 12:02

You doubt HelloSailor?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by witzgall (Post 574072)
I am having a really hard time believing that fact. Anyone else? only 2k boats?

HelloSailor has been pretty accurate in the past, but I also have a hard time believing that only 2,000 sailboats were sold last year. Maybe we missed something? Maybe HS could document his source? How about it?

JiffyLube 08-12-2010 12:08

In my opinion the boat market is not going to improve until the housing market improves.

bljones 08-12-2010 12:19

1938 boats sold in NOVEMBER, not the whole year.

Southern Star 08-12-2010 12:31

The article did not say that only 2000 boats were sold by contributing brokerages last year - rather, it said that through November, 27,900 had been sold, 1,958 for the month of November alone. It also said that the most pronounced increase was with respect to boats over 55 feet, but mentioned that this only accounted for 77 boats (albeit an increase from only 48 in that category the year before).

So yes, I think Sandy is right - it seems that the market likely reached bottom some time ago and is once again on the rise. The direct impact on pricing will obviously vary for any given boat (or category of boat), but this certainly suggests that used boats are selling once again in the USA. Is the increase in sales at least in part due to lower prices? Of course. But the fact that both the volume and value of sales has increased suggests that demand, even if its fairly elastic, has also risen. It is also possible that publicity of this report will create something of a self-fulfilling prophecy; certainly it will not reduce demand. If I were a betting man, I would think that the combination of these two factors - a sginificant increase in the volume and value of sales and publicity concerning the same, means that for the foreseeable future, prices are far more likely to go up than down.

Brad

sneuman 08-12-2010 12:47

Well, boats are a bellwhether of the economy:

Boating Industry Slump Could Signal Recession : NPR

gettinthere 08-12-2010 12:53

I am in one of the most depressed areas of the country, leading the nation in unemployment & job loss for 10 years in a row. Yet for the last 3 years, the local broker at my marina is selling plenty of new 40' to 50' production sailboats, especially this year.

TaoJones 08-12-2010 12:53

Here's a link to the full report: Trade Only Today - Mobile

TaoJones

shadow 08-12-2010 13:49

I do believe that the smaller boats are getting hit hard, but as usual, the very high, and I mean the highest end of the market, are doing well if not better. When I say high end, I mean, 75 feet with price tags of 3-10 Million or more.. Obviously, the recession doesn't hit those peeps like it does us...

speakeasy 08-12-2010 14:14

The stock market's up so folks feel richer and confidence rises, particularly if one drinks the koolaid passed around from the fed and the media. The fed is buying up toxic assets at a $5 billion a day clip that's going on our collective tab. Many if not most of that paper is only good for wiping your butt and will never be worth more in order to make the banks whole. In the next two years or longer we are going to continue to see sovereign debt crises abroad and eventually here. No government in history has paid off massive debt. They default. We owe them billions, listed as assets on their books and they owe us billions listed as assets on our books. All backed by nada.

Over half of US homes are underwater with inventory not shrinking. The financial system if now global, not local any longer. A butterfly flaps her wings and a chain reaction of events seemingly unrelated begins here. I suspect we'll see even lower boat prices ahead, but even if prices hold this plateau for a bit, they aren't going back up to peak prices of 5 years back. Neither will real estate, unless and until we begin to get a strong inflationary spiral. Then money will be worthless progressively and people will fling it at hard assets to try and preserve value. Bernanke has been successful so far in outlawing that, as he slowly smothers savers and old folks on fixed incomes with zero interest rates, while food, raw materials, metals and the like continue to increase in price at a 25% clip of speculation. This will not end well, IMHO.

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