Typhoon Bopha fisherman casualties

[hpeer]

Seems like some 300 fisherman are missing and fears dead in the Philippines after typhoon Bopha. Wonder if any cruisers got caught out?

Hundreds of fishermen missing after Philippine typhoon

[zUrchin]

This typhoon is an aberration based on previous recorded weather patterns. Southern Philippines is typically considered typhoon "safe." Could be an indicator of what? Sandy on the east coast was a weird one too.

[Pelagic]

What amazed me with the local management of this Typhoon is that early reports when still approaching Palau, forecast that the storm would dissipate quickly due to encountering cold water after Palau.
Those reports happily forecast that it would be barely a Typhoon when making landfall in Philippines.

So local Newspapers and TV only took it seriously about 24 hrs before landfall, when it was far too late to properly evacuate…. This happens a lot here which is why you need to be your own forecaster.

[daddle]

Crossed from Palau to PI before Bopha. At least one other cruiser friend did so as well more recently. Both of us were 'safely' inside the PI when Bopha made landfall in Mindanao. Don't know of any other boats in that area. Rare for cruisers to explore the east coast of Mindanao where Bopha came ashore. But certainly some were between there and Palawan where Bopha made her exit. Another friend was quite close to the path in Coron, north of Palawan. He is fine as well. Quite a few reasonable places to hide in the PI.

All cruisers in Palau are reported safe and undamaged. Palau is a very good typhoon refuge.

Nowhere in PI is out of the typhoon area. They are a little less frequent in the south - but memories are short. There is no safe month. Just less safe months.

The locals seem quite casual about typhoons. The forecasts and reporting in PI are as good as anywhere. Forecasts are from Japan, China, USA, etc. And TV covers it well. They just don't seem to take many precautions. In the hard hit areas their options are probably limited as they are very poor, have nowhere to go, can hardly afford a day off to secure their squatter-like homes. Here the banka owners just tied their fragile craft to the stone harbor wall. In past typhoons they came back to a pile of kindling. I don't understand that.

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by zUrchin

This typhoon is an aberration based on previous recorded weather patterns. Southern Philippines is typically considered typhoon "safe." Could be an indicator of what? Sandy on the east coast was a weird one too.

There use to be a lot of debate on the climate change issue. Not so much anymore.
On December 8th the UN met on global climate change and basically business as usual. The usual countries stone-walling. Here is a link. Near the end a woman from the Philippines spoke out...

Troubled UN climate talks spill over - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

[delmarrey]

There are some out there that say we're already doomed by 2100 if we don't reverse NOW! And all life will cease by 2300 if it doesn't change before 2100.

What I do know for sure is if the use of fuels stop now we'd all be killing each other anyway due to hunger and terratorial wars, especially up north. But IMO I think if it were to get that hot, the evaporation would cause massive rains and cool down again. We could have another small ice age like between the 16th & 19th century (Iron Age) Or have another eruption like in the Ontong Java Plateau.

Although I do feel for the Filipinos, fortunately my wife didn't have any family in that area. But this has been happening since the start of history and with the population growth going 6 fold since 1900, a lot more people are affected.

[Boracay]

My wife has family in the Philippines and I've visited quite a few times.

Bohpa turned left as it approached Mindanao. Had it turned right or even gone straight ahead they would have been in it's path. We called when we learned that it was on the way and they said that the waterproof torch I gave them last year was working well - LEDs with "D" cell batteries last "forever" - must get one for the boat.

The problem would have been that most would have had nowhere to go and no way of evacuating. They are almost all very poor with limited education so coming up with a typhoon survival plan would be very difficult.

The problem is compounded by almost all settlement being along the coast or along rivers with the inland areas being deforested.

Building a typhoon resistant structure is not simple or easy. We mostly think of houses as falling down, but with typhoons (cyclones in Oz) the houses are pulled up from foundations that have been weakened by days of heavy rain.

My parents built a house to comply with Queensland cyclone standards. I remerber the comments at the time regarding having to have steel rods from the foundations to the roof structure, with the roofing iron screwed, rather than nailed down. My wifes family home is one of the better built houses in the Phils. Lots of extra nails in the roof.

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by delmarrey

There are some out there that say we're already doomed by 2100 if we don't reverse NOW!

The numbers I heard were not as optimistic as 2100. A few are saying we have reached the point of no return.

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by delmarrey

There are some out there that say we're already doomed by 2100 if we don't reverse NOW! And all life will cease by 2300 if it doesn't change before 2100.

What I do know for sure is if the use of fuels stop now we'd all be killing each other anyway due to hunger and terratorial wars, especially up north. But IMO I think if it were to get that hot, the evaporation would cause massive rains and cool down again. We could have another small ice age like between the 16th & 19th century (Iron Age) Or have another eruption like in the Ontong Java Plateau.

Although I do feel for the Filipinos, fortunately my wife didn't have any family in that area. But this has been happening since the start of history and with the population growth going 6 fold since 1900, a lot more people are affected.

Del,

I agree with much of what you say here. You are right, we don't know, one way or the other. I think you are a bit confused on the rain thing. My understanding is that water vapor is a greenhouse gas and the net result of more moisture in the air is overall warming. But there are plenty of sites on that.

When you say stopping NOW would likely cause havoc I now, I believe you are right. Extreme depression. Kevin Andeson of the Tyndall Center makes much the same point while accusing scientists of hiding the truth about climate change.

His presentation is well worth listening too.

YouTube

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

The numbers I heard were not as optimistic as 2100. A few are saying we have reached the point of no return.

Yes, I am hearing an increasing chorus along the same lines.

While lightly less pessinistic some very mainstream organizations are saying we will blow past 2C and may not stop at 4C.
IEA
World Bank

Munich Re is chiming in on the commercial front.

Even Jimmy and Ivan Cornell note climate change as a reason why they updated the pilot charts. And not by a little.

[HeartsContent]

Global Warming is nothing more than a money scam - people are so gullible.

[delmarrey]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Del,

I agree with much of what you say here. You are right, we don't know, one way or the other. I think you are a bit confused on the rain thing. My understanding is that water vapor is a greenhouse gas and the net result of more moisture in the air is overall warming. But there are plenty of sites on that.

When you say stopping NOW would likely cause havoc I now, I believe you are right. Extreme depression. Kevin Andeson of the Tyndall Center makes much the same point while accusing scientists of hiding the truth about climate change.

His presentation is well worth listening too.

YouTube

If there are clouds in the air over the deserts or southern regions then that would block out the sun's rays, causing a cooler ground temp.

e.g. The Philippines are in one of the hottest regions on earth but the temp very seldom gets over 85º F. Although it is extremely humid, which doesn't hurt, just uncomfortable. But one gets use to it.

Here in the PNW an extremely hot day in the spring is usually followed by rain w/in the next day or two.
When Mt. St. Hellens went off in 1980 the whole northern region had cooler then normal weather for a while. The point is if the sun is blocked out then the earth cools. With higher temps it's going to cause evaporation/clouds/fog. As for the glaziers they've been melting since the ice age. 350 years ago Angle glazier in Alberta pushed out another row of rocks a half a mile, Which shows we have warming and cooling periods. What makes this one any different?

[DeepFrz]

Global Warming is nothing more than a money scam - people are so gullible.

Bruhahaha......

[DeepFrz]

Angel glacier was 3 or 4 times that size 30 yrs ago. I used to hike up the other side of the valley. It is just a remnant now.

I know the earth around here is still rising from the last ice age. Scientists are saying its not the warming that is so alarming, its the rate of warming. The Antarctic is shedding ice so rapidly that ice bergs and growlers are pushing much farther north in the Indian Ocean than in living memory and forcing the Vendee Globe participants to stay way north of the great circle route they usually follow.

But lets not get into another global warming hissie fit....

[DeepFrz]

Besides this thread is all about the 300 or so fishermen who have apparently lost their lives.