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Old 23-10-2007, 14:42   #31
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I don't know how the double signature happened, above. It makes me think of Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman (you younger swabs will have to look it up ).

I won't sign this one, in the interest of re-balancing the universe.
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Old 23-10-2007, 15:12   #32
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Old 23-10-2007, 17:18   #33
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"100 years from now when folks are looking back at the 21st century it will be defined as China's Time. China will be the dominant global superpower."
Actually there is godd reason, and consistent argument being made by professionals in many fields, that India and China will collapse into disaster during the next 20 years. Their pollution problems, population problems, lack of water and arable land, all indicate that they can continue with rampant growth just like any other "bug colony". Which then collapses and dies in a most horrible fashion as the masses compete for the resources that remain.
Violent revolution, external war, all equally good options compared to "Chinese superpower".
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Old 23-10-2007, 17:32   #34
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China's pollution problems are no worse than ours were 40 - 75 years ago. They can address those issues just as we did and they do not have to invent the technology, its already been done.

China began taking very aggressive action to address their population issues decades ago and today their population growth is centrally controlled. In China you do not get to choose how many kids you have the State chooses for you. So going forward they are much better positioned relative to population management that we are!

Lack of water? China is just completing the largest dam project the world has ever seen, the Three Gorges Dam. This reservoir will stretch over 600km upstream! They are also aggressively pursuing many other water conservation and control efforts. China will not be lacking in water.

Lack of arable land? Not with the water management efforts as outlined above. China has never suffered from a lack of food production and the rapidly accelerating industrialization of their agrarian economy will net dramatic increases in their food producing capabilities over coming decades.

Violent revolution? An unarmed and pacified population is generally lacking in success when it comes to armed revolution. Toss in the fact that the Chinese Govt. can take whatever action it wants with no fear of meaningful international intervention and I wouldnt bet on the current Chinese Govt. being overthrown through armed internal revolution anytime soon. Or ever for that matter.

I am not saying that China will dominate the planet next year. Such fundamental shifts in global power do not happen overnight. While the 20th Century is remembered as being dominated by the USA, this nation did not rise to a position as a true global power until the 1940s. China too will suffer growing pains and challenges.

But the fact is they are far better positioned to overcome their challenges than we are to overcome our own. The coming collapse of the US monetary system will crush the fiscal foundations this nation is built upon while simultaneously destroying global trust in our fiscal leadership. No longer will the dollar be king and no longer will the planet blindly accept irrational levels of US debt.



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Old 23-10-2007, 17:39   #35
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The "administration" isn't doing anything that the opposition party is not also supporting, all rhetoric aside. The uni-party system is functioning just fine.
Or as Tribe would say American elections are "a universal acclamation procedure for alternating elites" - both with pretty much the same private agenda. This usually isn't so bad because everyone more or less knows what's really going on. In fact, it's sort of reassuring. However, every once in awhile you wind up with leadership so breathtakingly incompetent that it actually believes its own rhetoric. Beware of true believers in positions of power.
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Old 23-10-2007, 17:41   #36
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Terry, the Three Gorges Dam is certainly a miracle. However, there has been a ot of discussion as to how little it will actually accomplish, how great an ecological disaster it may cause on the rivers, and how high the death toll will be if it fails.

The world engineering community seems to be giving it no more than a 50-50 chance of being the Great Muddy Hope that the ChiCom government claims it will be. Personally I wish them luck. I know they are agressively looking for solutions, i.e. their great work in the abandoned field of pebble bed reactors. And their marvelous concept of selling girl babies for $50-100,000 each, (perhaps higher if you consider the aoptive parents must make two round trips to China to visit during the process) instead of throwing them out.

But this being their century? Jimmy the Greek ain't takin even odds on it, neither am I.
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Old 23-10-2007, 18:39   #37
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I have wondered for a long time about the impact of the one child policy in China.
There have been many discussions around the idea that the boy child is prefered and the extremes that chinese couples go to ensure a male hier including infanticide. It has been suggested that the percentage of births is around 80% male. There was a recent doco about the young women in cities now being extremely choosy in regard to their partners and vast numbers strongly rejecting the idea of having any children. As word spreads I can see the country girls heading for the big smoke and the easy life.
This seems to be a good formulae for a extreme rapid decline in poulation in the next 20 to 40 years and all the problems that will go with it. If the majority of males can't get a wife then why would they maintain the farms or family business or even work a job that exceeds their personal needs. Who is going to look after the huge numbers of the aged. Etc Etc
I have never seen a discussion on the ramifications of this. There has been much talk of the impact of an ageing population in developed countries due to reduced birth rates. With chinas move away from an agrarian existance can they avoid the difficulties.
My numbers make no attempt to maintain accuracy but if we assume the total current poulation is 1.5 billion how many are in the reproducion bracket, .75 billion? with one child and 80% male this only allows for 75 million offspring of which only 15 million will be female. Quite a rapid decline if my assumpions are anywhere near close. We can not forget that this process has been in force for some time and the distortions are begining to appear.
In 50 years the rein of China may have a few difficulties of its own. If anyone has a link to research in this area I would be most gratefull.

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Old 23-10-2007, 18:57   #38
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I have wondered for a long time about the impact of the one child policy in China.

There have been many discussions around the idea that the boy child is preferred and the extremes that Chinese couples go to ensure a male heir, including infanticide.
You may find the following link to a thread I put up last month interesting, Mike:

http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...rld-10089.html

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Old 23-10-2007, 23:50   #39
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I saw that before. There are many such examples but it is a discussion of the impact on the population demagraphics for the future I am particularly looking for.
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