Running From Weather

[Four Coconuts]

Forum,

The situation in the Virgin Islands, St. Martin/Marteen, Barbuda, Antigua, etc. is horrific. I spent several years sailing among these islands and truly feel for their predicament. The purpose of this post is that I am struggling to understand why many boats that had crews on board and could theoretically sail on an instance would choose to see the storm through instead of sailing south out of harms way. I understand that 20/20 applies, but why not get out of Dodge?

The knee jerk reaction is to say that conditions degenerate to fast to take action, but Grenada is only 400 miles south, and you really only need to get 300 miles south (36-48 hours) to avoid the serious waves and wind. Having watched the intervening winds and waves between Irma and Jose there appears to be a nice beam reach with moderate seas opportunity to get out of harms way. Why are not the boats with crews taking advantage of it? Please help me understand what I'm missing....

[sandy stone]

Maybe they decided it wasn't worth risking their lives to save a boat? As in, putting to sea with a Cat-5 hurricane coming straight at you. And I doubt the majority of those boats could cover 300 miles in 36-48 hours.

[jserge]

I would guess the same - if the hurricane catches them at the sea they are dead. Not worth the risk. You cannot be absolutely sure that the hurricane wont change its direction the moment you cast off.

[Kenomac]

We just spent the past five days getting out of way of a probable wind event here in Croatia. Moving our boat 150 miles north in order to avoid two days of possible 40-50mph wind and rain.

Like the OP, we don't understand the choice or logic to stay in one place either, when safety is only 2-3 days away.... and you know about the storm 4-5 days in advance. Maybe some people just shouldn't own boats.

We were on our boat near Sibenik on Monday when we first saw the weather forecast and will be in Rovinj on Sunday when the storm hits. No 20/20 involved.... it's called foresight.

[SV Windrush II]

Im with the OP on this s one. Especially now with all the periction systems available and satellite internet available and this particular storm path, the likelyhood of it turning south across the islands was prettymuch a zero % chance.
Typhoons in general are very predictable if you understand what they need for fuel.

But hen there is alot of factors involved in running from a storm that would include the confidence of the captain, how the boat is equiped, and how important the boat is to the owner. For example, a liveaboard owner is going to try to protect his or her home much more seriously than a boat that is used for charter or vacation boat that is not needed for living in.

[Kenomac]

Some of this phenom may also be attributed to an attitude created in America over the past 15 years or so of everyone becoming victims in waiting, and the people with boats having a marina type mentality and really not knowing what to do and being afraid to anything. The result seems to be millions of people staring into the headlights, frozen and waiting to be hit.

'Just two peoples humble opinion on the subject... as we continue our trek north today in Croatia to get out of harms way.

News flash: America isn't the only place on Earth with high wind storms.

[UNCIVILIZED]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Some of this phenom may also be attributed to an attitude created in America over the past 15 years or so of everyone becoming victims in waiting, and the people with boats having a marina type mentality and really not knowing what to do and being afraid to anything. The result seems to be millions of people staring into the headlights, frozen and waiting to be hit.

'Just two peoples humble opinion on the subject... as we continue our trek north today.

The above are pretty much my thoughts on the topic too. Learned helplessness is the norm anymore, sadly.

[Jim Cate]

There is one significant difference between Croatia and the Caribbean, Ken. If you stuff things up (boat breaks, you get too sick to press on, no wind, etc) or the storm goes in an unforecast direction you get hit with the 40-50 knot winds you were trying to escape. The guys in the islands, meeting the same failures get hit with 200 knot winds, and they likely die.

See the difference?

Jim

[laika]

You see a forecast that is indefinite, you can't guarantee an outcome, you take a chance to secure the boat in it's current place rather than put out to sea and take a chance on your life. Or you're simply not in a position to put to sea in time. By and large, I'm not at all sure what learned defenselessness has to do with it.

[SV Windrush II]

I do not think there is a right or wrong answer to this. For me it is my own decision and calculated risk. If i believe i can get out of the way of a storm i will pull anchor and get the hell out of there. If it looks to risky i may secure the boat the best i can and run. But this piticular storm is on the same track as predicted for over a week now on my weather charts. If i was there i would be sitting on a beach somewhere in the Grenadines by now watching the chaos on the news, instead of trying to find all the pieces of my boat.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

There is one significant difference between Croatia and the Caribbean, Ken. If you stuff things up (boat breaks, you get too sick to press on, no wind, etc) or the storm goes in an unforecast direction you get hit with the 40-50 knot winds you were trying to escape. The guys in the islands, meeting the same failures get hit with 200 knot winds, and they likely die.

See the difference?

Jim

So you recommend the deer in the headlights approach. Suit yourself, but we prefer a more proactive solution.

[SV Windrush II]

Comparing a linear directional storm to a cyclone is not realistic. Cyclones are much more predictable than regular storm that is going in one direction.
After studying cyclones now for over a decade, it is not hard to predict the path of a typhoon or hurricane, as they get fueled by surface temperature, air temperature, and wind shear, causing ocean surface evaporation. In addition to fuel, cyclones will avoid resistance, such as mountainous islands, high pressure fronts, etc etc.
To know where a cyclone is going, we just need to study the weather in front of it.

Also about 99% of the time cyclonic storms move away from the equator, not towards it.

Little or None of these factors needs to be present in a linear directional storm in northern latitudes, thus making northern ocean storms much harder to predict but not immpossible. I have personal experience growing up in the Pacific Northwest.

As a sailor, i think its also very important to study weather systems and how they form and why they create predictable patterns, only then can we make good decisions and minimize the dear in the headlights syndrome

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by sandy stone

Maybe they decided it wasn't worth risking their lives to save a boat? As in, putting to sea with a Cat-5 hurricane coming straight at you. And I doubt the majority of those boats could cover 300 miles in 36-48 hours.

Perhaps they didn't appreciate quite what a cat 5 hurricane is going to be like and are used to going through a cat 1 -2 in hurricane holes with only minimum damage.

[GordMay]

See post 3 Three Hurricanes in a Row in One View from Space Irma Katia Jose - Cruisers & Sailing Forums

[Kenomac]

Gord,

My insurance company will not cover boats who have owners which choose to keep them in hurricane alley during the hurricane season. Why are these boats even located in the path? The time to leave was well before the storms came through.

Oberservation: Am I the only one who's noticed this happening every year? Same discussions every year, same time, same location, same issue.