2016 Typhoon Season: Strange so far

[Pelagic]

Thanks pbmaise for starting this......it has been unsettling that our TRS season has come in like a Lamb.

By end of May, my laptop usually opens with Typhoon-2k but this year I switched to Windytv, primarily to get a simple 14 day wind overview of SE Asia.

Definitely been an irregular pattern this season.

[pbmaise]

I found while the NOAA link I gave you was more current ... it really is just a refeed from Japan. You can see images even newer if you go directly to the Japanese site:

See: JMA/MSC: Himawari Real-Time Image

The first typhoon, still a tropical depression, is named Nepartak. The update now appears on JTWC and their new image in BW is online. The direct Japanese image link above at one point was a full 23 hours more recent.

There was another reason to have a clue something big in the weather was in the pike line. Yesterday, here in the Philippines there was a very bright halo around the sun. This is almost always a sign there is a big storm system around.

I would post the track for the typhoon, if I could get attachments to work.

[Pelagic]

Here it is

[pbmaise]

Nepartak grew into a Cat 5 super typhoon. It was not larger than the largest typhoon of 2015. However, nothing to sneeze at. Waves were reaching 45 feet in open sea.

JTWC was pretty close with their initial track. They showed it hitting Taiwan and it did. Just a tad bit more Southern then posted.

Par for them was under estimating the severity. They predicted Max winds of 120 knots. Max winds were 180 knots.

Now that is a bit of an understatement!

In general I am finding to add 30 knots to the initial estimates to get closer to actual peak intensity. Why it is important is rather academic. If hit by a typhoon directly at 120 knots or 180 knots, don't expect your beautiful fairing work on the pilot house to come through unscathed. You will be lucky to have a pilot house or a boat for that matter.

[pbmaise]

It sure looks like a typhoon brewing just East of Luzon.

JMA/MSC: Himawari Real-Time Image

Still only mention by JTWC is found in overall text file. It says Medium chance this will be a typhoon within 24 hours.

Some help that is for anyone sailing the South China Sea.